Oregon: Demographic changes

1. Oregon: Demographic changes

2. National Demographics • Aging population: changing labor market as baby boomers retire and fiscal impact on federal and state budgets. • Changes in population growth, 2000-2020 • 65 Plus: 54% • 55-64: 73% • 45-54: 3% • 35-44: -10% • 25-34: 7% • 15-24: 8% • Under 14: 7% Source: Census Bureau

3. Federal Reserve and GAO • Major labor market shift. • Strain on federal and state government finances. • Federal Reserve: The fundamental conclusion of our study is that, barring a significant increase in labor force participation, population aging will lead to a reduction in per capita consumption relative to a baseline in which the demographic composition of the population does not change. The size of any consumption reduction depends critically on whether the adjustment happens sooner or later and on whether the labor force participation of the elderly changes. Important policy questions, then, are whose consumption path fall, by how much, when, and by what means?

4. GAO • December 2005 report: Demographic changes pose serious challenges for employers, the economy, and older Americans…the loss of experienced workers could have adverse effects on productivity and economic growth. Potential skill gaps from impending retirements.

5. Labor market • Demand for skilled workers will increase putting a premium on education investments and reform (i.e. diploma requirements). • Ernest & Young: Time is running out as millions of Baby Boomers reach early retirement ages. Employers need to act now… • Carnegie Corporation on consequences for schools and teaching. In the future, high wage level societies will be those whose economies are based on the use of a wide scale of very skilled workers, backed up by the most advanced technologies available.

6. State Actions • Washington: State government workforce succession plan. • New York: Employer succession plans. • Delaware: Comprehensive demographic report with emphasis on policy implications.

7. Oregon Demographic Changes • Oregon is facing average growth in its aging population. • Oregon is above average in an active aging population. • Labor force participation 55 plus: Oregon rank 38th. • Contribution to state personal income of 55 plus: Oregon rank 40th. • State population 85 plus: Oregon rank 34th. • Voter participation 65 plus: Oregon rank 2nd.

8. Oregon economy and labor market challenge. • Oregon Employment Department report, “Will Oregon Have Enough Workers?” During the coming two decades, increased retirements will result in many replacement job openings and add to the tightness of the labor market. Many employers will have to scramble and compete for workers, even in industries with slow job growth.

9. Oregon’s fiscal challenge. • Rising demand for education investments combined with rising costs for senior services. • Ballot measure 11 and fiscal impact for growing corrections budget. • Tax structure.

10. Purpose of an Oregon Demographic Report • Data collection. • PSU Population Research Center • Employment Department (LMI) • Policy analysis • Skilled workforce • Education investments • Process: Leading change • Sense of urgency. • Guiding coalition: Business, labor, elected officials • Promote and advance current actions.

11. Conclusion • Oregon Diploma Project • Prime example of long term planning. One good example is worth a thousand theories. • Puts diploma changes in context of why it is important now! • Explicit decision making. • Sustainability not just an environmental and energy issue.