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Moving Forward SCEC BBP Validations & Improvements

Moving Forward SCEC BBP Validations & Improvements. Norm Abrahamson. Moving Forward with BBP:. Schedule for major seismic hazard projects Time Series for structural fragilities 2015 Use in 2016 nuclear fragilities Use in 2016 California dams hazard update NGA-west3 2018

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Moving Forward SCEC BBP Validations & Improvements

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  1. Moving ForwardSCEC BBP Validations & Improvements Norm Abrahamson

  2. Moving Forward with BBP: • Schedule for major seismic hazard projects • Time Series for structural fragilities 2015 • Use in 2016 nuclear fragilities • Use in 2016 California dams hazard update • NGA-west3 2018 • Use in 2020 Building code • SWUS-2 & NGA-east2 2023 • Use in 2025 Nuclear power plant hazard update

  3. Moving Forward with BBP:Topics for Discussion • New Features/Capabilities in BBP • New/Improved Modules • Validation – median • Validation – aleatory variability

  4. New Features in BBP • Improve user input interface • Make easier to understand • Plots of inputs for checking before simulations are conducted • Allow for non-planar ruptures • Allow computation of GF within the BBP

  5. New/Improved Modules • Site amplification • Site effects in time series • Improve simulation modules • UCSB, UNR, Irikura Recipe • M(A) scaling limitations • Make the BBP modules work for • Rupture Generators • Key for aleatory variability • Empirical event terms variability • Rupture source variability

  6. Validation - Median • 1-D crustal models • Complete validation for 3 EUS earthquakes • Complete validation for remaining 13 active crustal region earthquakes • Many are non-planar ruptures • 3-D crustal models • Repeat validation using 3-D crustal models • What is the improvement compared to 1-D models? • Need 3-D GF for all regions in the validation data set

  7. Validation – Aleatory Variability • Calibrating rupture generator variability • Joint distributions of source properties • Hypocenter location, Slip, Slip velocity, Rupture velocity • Dynamic rupture models • Avoids inconsistent parameter combinations, but variability depends on inputs to the dynamic rupture model • Empirical models for M6 - M6.5

  8. Possible Schedule • 2014-2015 • Improved user interface tools • New site effects module • Revise/add modules (UCSB, UNR, Irikura, …) • Relaxing M(A) scaling constraints • Add non-planar ruptures to BBP • Add 3-D simulation capabilities to BBP (as done in cybershake) • Complete 1D validation for additional 13 ACR events • 2016-2017 • 3-D validation • Source constraints from Dynamic rupture models • 2018-2019 • Add 1-D GF calculation capabilities to BBP • Validation for aleatory variability

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