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Peter Cochrane

Fibre To The Home Costs In. Peter Cochrane. www.ca-global.org. COCHRANE a s s o c i a t e s. God was a comms engineer…. He gave us… Silicon Silica EM Waves. EM Waves = Wireless/Radio . Silicon = Transistors . Silica = Whoops we chose copper .

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Peter Cochrane

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  1. Fibre To The Home Costs In Peter Cochrane www.ca-global.org • COCHRANE • a s s o c i a t e s

  2. God was a comms engineer… He gave us… Silicon Silica EM Waves EM Waves = Wireless/Radio  Silicon = Transistors  Silica = Whoops we chose copper 

  3. Some pre history 1970 - 80s

  4. BT deployed fibre in the long lines network in just 6 years…everything improved & staffing went down from 242,000 to 110,000

  5. The fibre for coax transformation gave so much net improvement that the move into the local loop was an obvious target….and a reduction to only 35,000 staff !

  6.  C C  C 2  2 2 C 3 3 1 3 2 Tx Tx  C Tx Tx 3 3 Rx Rx  C Rx Rx Tx 2 1 Tx Rx Tx Rx Rx Tx Tx Rx  Tx Rx 3 Tx Rx  Rx 2  1  1 + 2 + 3 Tx Rx  C 1 1 Tx Tx Tx Rx Rx Rx   C C 1 1 2 3 Wavelength routing changes everything later… residential sector residential sector The 1986 - 1990 trial system advanced to the point where > 6000 local switch sites could be removed from the network Factories were built in Ipswich to manufacture all the devices and plant.. ring feeder optical amplifiers to network node business sector Changing signal format with time…allocated a carrier per session

  7. So, how in 1986 did FTTH cost in? Not by simple minded upfront costing! But by whole life costing… by taking advantage of every aspect of fiber!

  8. Costing in for FTTH … Water ingress in copper ~ 50% of faults Employees in network ~ 25% of faults Remote routing of fiber saves ~ 95% work Fibre reach removes electronics Switch nodes/building stock reduced >90% Reduced OSS & BSS systems & costs Energy costs reduced by >50% Staffing reduced by > 80% Lead, copper & plastic recovered = $$ income Year-on-year OPEX fall with new tech

  9. And the projected cost of fibre to every home & office in the UK? Only £15Bn = 3 years profits!! Time to complete ~ 10 years So a spend ~ £1.5Bn/year

  10. So, what went wrong????

  11. How come 21CN has taken 25 years to arrive??? • Politics • Regulation • Libralisation • Stock Market • Vested interests • People • Demand

  12. The GOOD News

  13. In < 30 years optical fiber technology has… - revolutionized bit transport - powered the internet - exponentially driven capacity up & cost down - completely changed the networks industry And there is now a screaming need for FTTH & FTTO

  14. But we are now engaged in… …a dive to the bottom… …where everything is a commodity and the commercial environment is predatory!

  15. Interesting, persistent, and… …really dumb questions! How much bandwidth do we need? What will people do with it? What are the killer applications? Can’t we do it all with wireless anyway? Haven’t we invested in too much fiber/re?

  16. Interesting, persistent, and… …really dumb assumptions! Customer use/need is asymmetric! Customers will pay for connectivity! Netcos/Governments can control network use! Content can be controlled! Maximum penetration is 100%! Government/Regulators understand !!!!

  17. The biggest problems we face? Not technology! Not operational? The business model/thinking is wrong People find it hard to change

  18. A world of opportunity & risk…. www.cochrane.org.uk www.ca-global.org www.conceptlabs.net • COCHRANE • a s s o c i a t e s

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