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Iver Johansen, FFI

ASSIGNING WEIGHTS TO SCENARIOS USING MULTI-CRITERIA ANALYSIS The Case of Norwegian Defence Planning. Iver Johansen, FFI. National Security Domain Direct challenges Political choice limited Challenges cover a wide spectrum Balance of military capacities. International Security Domain

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Iver Johansen, FFI

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  1. ASSIGNING WEIGHTS TO SCENARIOSUSINGMULTI-CRITERIA ANALYSISThe Case of Norwegian Defence Planning Iver Johansen, FFI

  2. National Security Domain Direct challenges Political choice limited Challenges cover a wide spectrum Balance of military capacities International Security Domain Indirect challenges Large set of alternative strategies Commit/not commit How much What kind Interoperatbility Niche capacities NORWAY’S TWO-SIDED SECURITY AGENDA

  3. NO COMMON MEASURE OF EFFECTIVENESS Force structure effectiveness ? ? ? Capabilities in scenarios 1-6 3 4 3 4 3 4 2 5 2 5 2 5 1 6 1 6 1 6 Defence structure alternatives A B C

  4. SCENARIO WEIGHTS: RISK ANALYSIS Risk = probability x consequence Steps: • Map spectrum of security challenges • Determine probabilities • Estimate consequences p c

  5. SCENARIO WEIGHTS: Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) • Use scenarios (planning situations) in the bottom nodes of the hierarchy • Two stage way of thinking: • Connect military tasks to top-level objectives • Tasks are assessed in terms of their relations to specific scenarios • Deriving: • Relative importance of tasks per scenario • Any given scenario’s contribution to the total amount of any specific military task

  6. GENERIC MODEL NATIONAL SECURITY Security policy goals Defence policy goals Defence main tasks Defence secondary tasks S 1 Scenarios S 2 S 3 S 4 S 5 S 6

  7. NATIONAL SECURITY Security goals Secure Nat Territory Secure Pol Autonomy Secure Nat Population Prevent/Det er Mil Threats Combat Mil Aggression Ensure Allied Force Contributions Contribute Nat Sec Pol Consensus Defence goals Sovereignty, Jurisdiction National Defence Against Terrorism Territorial Defence (National) Main military tasks National Crisis Management Allied-/Multinational Warfare Peacekeeping, Security Assistance Land Combat ASuW ASW Counter Air C2 Warfare Border Control Secondary military tasks Surveill/Jurisd (maritime) Surveill/Jurisd (air) Infrastructure Protection Base Defence Missile Defence Secure POEs Area Control - Land (int ops) Area Control - Maritime (int ops) CIMIC (int ops) Planning Situations P1: Peacetime tasks P3: Lim mil attack P5: Peace-keeping P2: Terrorist attack P4: Crises/War nat domain P6: War int domain

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