What is Climate Change?

1. What is Climate Change? • A combined long term effect of rising global temperature leading to changes in air and oceanic circulations and consequently rainfall patterns over time and space • Global mean temperature rise is due to concentration of CO2, methane, N2O and other gases, often called green house gases, caused mainly by fossil fuel use, deforestation and to an extent due to wet paddy cultivation

2. Global Worming and Climate Change Ainun Nishat, Ph. D Senior Advisor, Climate change IUCN The International Union for Conservation of Nature Email: nishat@iucnbd.org

3. Is Climate Change real …..? • Climate change has risen to the top of international policy agenda. G-8 has agreed to reduce green house emission by 50% by 2050. Is it enough? • IPCC TAR 2001: The Earth’s Climate system has demonstrably changed on both global and regional scales since the pre-industrial era. The IPCC-FAR(2007), concludes that global warming is unequivocally the result of human activities. • CO2 emission has increased from 280 ppm before industrial revolution to about 380 ppm. May reach 800+ ppm by end of this century. Global average temperature is already up by 0.8C. • Stern Review ( 2007) : ‘poorest countries and people will suffer earliest and most’. • Scientific consensus is clear; now we need to urgently focus on what to do about it. Attempts are being made to fix the ceiling at 500ppm and at 2.0c. Is it likely to happen? • Climate change and climate variability are now real and a stable situation is not likely to be achieved soon.

4. I. Major Climate Change concerns

5. Variations of the Earth’s Surface Temperature

7. Role of Human Systems on Global Warming Blue Band - natural; Red band – Man made

8. Global WarmingSea Level RiseSnow CoverSPM (IPCC, 2007)

9. Comparison of Yearly Mean Temperature Global Northern Hemisphere Bangladesh Dhaka

10. Temperature Trend in Maijdee Court The regression equation shows that annual average temperature has an increasing tendency and has increased by 0.86ºC from 1952 to 2001 Source: Study report on Extreme Hydrological events

11. Projected impacts of climate change Global temperature change (relative to pre-industrial) 0°C 1°C 2°C 3°C 4°C 5°C Food Falling crop yields in many areas, particularly developing regions Fallingyields in many developed regions Possible risingyields in some high latitude regions Water Significant fall in water availability e.g. Mediterranean and Southern Africa Small mountain glaciers disappear – melt-water supplies threatened in several areas Sea level rise threatens major cities Ecosystems Extensive Damage to Coral Reefs Rising number of species face extinction Extreme Weather Events Rising intensity of storms, forest fires, droughts, flooding,heat waves Risk of Abrupt and Major Irreversible Changes Increasing risk of dangerous feedbacks and abrupt, large-scale shifts in the climate system Source: stern review

13. Flood Inundation Depth Map: Projection Year 2030 Sea Level Rise 14 cm Flood Inundation Depth Map: Projection Year 2015 Sea Level Rise 10 cm Land Level (m PWD) Land Level (m PWD) Land Level (m PWD) 7.00-19.00 7.00-19.00 7.00-19.00 4.00- 7.00 4.00- 7.00 4.00- 7.00 2.00- 4.00 2.00- 4.00 2.00- 4.00 0.00- 2.00 0.00- 2.00 0.00- 2.00 No Sea Level Rise Upstream flow: Average Year (Year 2000 flow) Upstream flow: Average Year (Year 2000 flow) Upstream flow: Average Year (Year 2000 flow) Upstream flow: Average Year (Year 2000 flow) Upstream flow: Average Year (Year 2000 flow) Inundation Depth (m) Inundation Depth (m) Inundation Depth (m) 0.00- 0.15 0.00- 0.15 0.00- 0.15 0.15- 0.30 0.15- 0.30 0.15- 0.30 0.30- 0.60 0.30- 0.60 0.30- 0.60 0.60- 0.90 0.60- 0.90 0.60- 0.90 0.90- 1.80 0.90- 1.80 0.90- 1.80 1.80- 3.60 1.80- 3.60 1.80- 3.60 Above 3.60 Above 3.60 Above 3.60 Land Level (m) PWD) Land Level (m PWD) 7.00-19.00 7.00-19.00 4.00- 7.00 4.00- 7.00 2.00- 4.00 2.00- 4.00 0.00- 2.00 0.00- 2.00 Flood Inundation Depth Map: Projection Year 2050 Sea Level Rise 32 cm Inundation Depth (m) Inundation Depth (m) 0.00- 0.15 0.00- 0.15 0.15- 0.30 0.15- 0.30 0.30- 0.60 0.30- 0.60 0.60- 0.90 0.60- 0.90 Bay of Bengal Bay of Bengal Bay of Bengal Bay of Bengal Bay of Bengal 0.90- 1.80 0.90- 1.80 1.80- 3.60 1.80- 3.60 Above 3.60 Above 3.60 Flood Inundation Depth Map: Projection Year 2100 Sea Level Rise 88 cm Flood Inundation Depth Map Existing Condition

14. Vulnerabilities

15. Comments of Rural Communities (IUCN 2003) • Excessive rainfall at times, untimely and irregular heavy rain, • Increase in tidal bores, increase in number of cyclonic conditions, variation in tidal flow • Increase in frequency of flash flood, • Temperature variation, change of seasonal cycle, cloudy and cold winter, • increase in droughts and dry spells, • Storms and hailstorms,, • Increased surface temperature, • Intensity of mist/fog increased in the winter.

16. Options for Adaptation FLOOD MANAGEMENT • Flood management • Dams and reservoirs • flood management infrastructure • dykes/embankment/ polder/ levee/bund • sluices, • pump stations, • flood Evacuation shelters • Evacuation • Shelter management • Flood forecasting system • Lead time, • Language • Dissemination Drought Management • Barrages • Irrigation facilities, pump stations, tube wells.

17. Options for Adaptation……… Storm surge and Cyclone/Typhoon/ Hurricane • Coastal dykes/embankment/ polder/levee • Coastal aforestation • Cyclone Shelters • Evacuation • Shelter management • Cyclone forecasts and Warning • Lead time, • Language • Dissemination Erosion control measures • River training Capacity enhancement for Disaster Management • Capacity of local level institutions • GO-NGO relationship

18. North: Compromise with life style Snow melting & dry ski-slopes Floods Impact on ecosystem Hurricanes and typhoons Sea level rise Health issues Malaria Heat waves Capacity to cope with disasters Reduction of green house gas emission level South: Food and livelihood security Urban drainage problems Floods and cyclone : forecasting and warning dissemination Improvements in IWRM including resolution of trans-boundary waters. Salinity increase & sea level rise River and coastal erosion Disaster management Understanding impact on ecosystem Question of future survival Where are our concerns

19. II. Progress up to Bali

20. Global Responses • The international political response to climate change began with adoption of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change(UNFCCC) in 1992. • Calls for all signatories including developing countries: • to develop their inventories of GHG emission; • formulate and implement national and regional programs related to mitigation and adaptation; • Promote and cooperate in development, application, diffusion, including transfer of technologies aimed at GHG emission reduction; • Promote sinks of Green House Gases; • Cooperate in adaptation to impacts of climate change; • Promote and cooperate in increasing the scientific understanding and in education training and awareness raising. • These initiatives should be reflected in National Communications. Annex-1 countries have prepared 4th Communication, developing countries have submitted 1st Communication and preparing 2nd Communication.

21. Goals set out in 1992 through UNFCCC • Stabilization of the GHG concentrations at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climatic system. • Such a level should be achieved within a time frame sufficient: • To allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change. • To ensure that food production is not threatened, and • To enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner.

22. Global Response(cont...) • Parties to the UNFCCC adopted the Kyoto Protocol (KP) with the unprecedented, legally enforced ambition of limiting and reducing the greenhouse gas emissions. • Annex-I countries have a target to bring down the GHG emission, individually or jointly, by at least by 5%below 1990 levels in the first commitment period of 2008 to 2012. • Countries are to make demonstrable progress in achieving their commitments by 2005. Is it happening? --- No. • Negotiation for post 2012 period has been initiated through Bali Action Plan. • Heads of Govt. met in New York on 24th September 2007; Ministers and senior officials met on 11-12th February 2008.

23. III. Outcome of Bali COP ( COP13/MOP3)

24. Bali action Plan • 13th COP held in Bali launched a comprehensive process to enable the full, effective and sustained implementation of the UNFCCC through long-term action, now, up to and beyond 2012, in order to reach an agreed outcome and adopt a decision at COP-15. • The process will produce: • A shared vision for long-term cooperative action, • Set long term global goal for emission reductions, • To achieve ultimate objective of the UNFCCC, and • Uphold the principles of common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities, and • Take into account social and economic conditions and other relevant factors. • The process will address: • Enhanced national/international action on Mitigation • Enhanced action on Adaptation, • Enhanced action on Technology development and transfer to support action on Mitigation and Adaptation, • Enhanced action on provision of Financial Resources and investment to support action on Mitigation and adaptation and technology cooperation.

25. Enhanced action on Mitigation • By all developed countries • Quantified emission limitation and reduction objectives • Nationally appropriate mitigation commitments or actions: Measurable, Reportable, and Verifiable. • By all developing countries • Nationally appropriate mitigation actions, • Supported and enabled by technology, finance and capacity-building, in the context of sustainable development : Measurable, Reportable, and Verifiable. • Positive incentives on REDD

26. Enhanced action on Adaptation • International cooperation to support urgent implementation of Adaptation actions through: • Assessment of Vulnerability • Prioritization of actions • Financial needs assessment • Development of risk reduction and disaster management strategies • Integration of climate considerations into sectoral and national planning • Support programme for capacity building in formulating programmes and projects to address the adaptation needs. • Financial mechanism to support the implementation of activities. • Development of new and innovative support mechanisms such as insurance etc.

27. Enhanced action on Technology transfer • Technology development and transfer to support action on Mitigation and Adaptation by: • Scaling up of the development and transfer of technology to developing countries through effective mechanisms and enhanced means for removal of obstacles to, and provision of financial and other incentives. • Accelerated deployment, diffusion and transfer of affordable environmentally sound technologies, • Cooperation in research and development of current, new and innovative technology.

28. Enhanced action on Finance • Positive incentives for emission reduction activities of developing country’s. • Financing for implementation of adaptation actions. • Mobilization of public- and Private-sector funding and investment, including facilitation of carbon-friendly investment choices • Improved access to adequate, predictable and sustainable financial resources including concessional funding.

29. IV.Bali Action Plan and Road to Copenhagen

30. Bali Action Plan and Road to Copenhagen • Road Map for long-term action, now, up to and beyond 2012 as international response to Climate Change has been agreed upon. • Mitigation is no longer a task for only Annex-1 or developed countries. • Developing as well as LDCs are also obligated to push for GHG reduction. China, India, Indonesia etc. are also major polluters. • Ad Hoc Working Group (AWG) on long term Cooperative Action has been set up. AWG will complete its work in 2009 and present their outcome in COP 15 in Copenhagen. • First session of the AWG was held in Bangkok in March 2008. 3 more sessions in 2008. ( June, September and December). At least 4 sessions in 2009. • Bangladesh submitted Bangladesh’s position on the Bali Action Plan in February 2008.

31. V. What we are doing

32. Some negotiation issues at global level • A strong compliance regime is required. Efforts should be made to ensure that global mean temperature will not increase beyond 2 ºc. ( some countries are trying to make a realistic estimate of 3 ºc. • A deep emission cut is needed. IPCC suggested that developed counties need to reduce their emission, below 1990 level, by 25-40% by 2020, for stabilization at 450-550 ppm. Peaking date is very important. • Larger alliance among developing countries on post Kyoto situation. • Additional funds commitment for adaptation needs and it’s disbursement mechanism. • Binding adaptation funds • Technology transfer at an affordable price

33. Bangladesh’s Climate Change Strategy Basic premises • Synergy with a globally negotiated strategy while Adaptation Plan has to be based on national context • Accepts Bali Action Plan and its 4 building blocks: adaptation, mitigation, technology transfer and adequate financial flows • Security of food, water, energy and livelihood must be inviolate for any climate change strategy and action . • Adaptation need arises due to GHG emission mainly by Annex 1 countries • polluter pays principle; • financial flows to be compensatory grants;

34. Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan • Released on 10th September in London 2008; revised and updated in July 2009; waiting for approval • 6 Thematic Areas • Food Security, Social Protection and Health (9) • Comprehensive Disaster management (4) • Infrastructure (7) • Research and Knowledge Management (5) • Mitigation and Low Carbon Development (7) • Capacity Building and Institutional Strengthening (5) • 37 programmes ; 4 new programme added • BCCSAP is a living document; updating will be necessary at intervals based on better understanding of issues as they emerge; • Key issues in taking BCCSAP forward are: financing, institutional arrangement and coordination, coordination with donors, etc; • Food Security; water security; livelihood security; energy security and health security be ensured • Progress towards sustainable development and achievements in attaining MDGs are not hampered.

35. Bangladesh’s Climate Change Strategy Basic premises • Synergy with a globally negotiated strategy while Adaptation Plan (NAPA) as well as Mitigation Plan (NAMA) have to be based in national context • Accepts Bali Action Plan and its 4 building blocks: adaptation, mitigation, technology transfer and adequate financial flows • Security of food, water, energy and livelihood must be inviolate for any climate change strategy and action . • Adaptation need arises due to GHG emission mainly by Annex-1 countries • polluter pays principle; • financial flows to be compensatory grants; ( Role of the World Bank and GEF is being debated).

36. Theme 1: Food Security, Social Protection and Health • P1. Institutional capacity for research towards climate resilient cultivars and their dissemination • P2. Development of climate resilient cropping systems • P3. Adaptation against drought • P4. Adaptation in fisheries sector • P5. Adaptation in livestock sector • P6. Adaptation in health sector • P7. Water and sanitation programme in climate vulnerable areas • P8. Livelihood protection in ecologically fragile areas • P9. Livelihood protection of vulnerable socio-economic groups (including women)

37. On Road to Copenhagen …….…. • Intense negotiations going on; drafts on website. • Must understand group dynamics. • G77 and China • EU • USA • Umbrella Group • Environmental Integrity Group • AOSIS • LDC • Arab league • Africa Group

38. USA’s position……... • Declared their position a few weeks back. • Recognizes “the magnitude and seriousness of what science demands”. • Commits “to reach a strong international agreement in Copenhagen based on robust targets and ambitious actions that will be embodied in US domestic law and on the premise that the agreement will reflect the important national actions of all countries with significant emissions…” (countries with greater responsibility/capability) ( LDCs left out) • Proposes to identify desirable global indicators. • Parties to implement nationally appropriate Mitigation Action Plans as shown in Appendix -1 (in place of Annex-1). Proposes up to 2020 as next commitment period. • Supports REDD related activities. • Proposes to develop “robust Adaptation framework”. • Recognizes the need for a dramatic increase in flow of resources… for both adaptation and Mitigation.

39. THANK YOU