Migration Statistics in Russian Federation: basic problems and possible solutions

1. Migration Statistics in Russian Federation: basic problems and possible solutions Olga Chudinovskikh Moscow State University olga@mail.econ.msu.ru

2. Des données statistques sur des migrations internes n'existent pas même dans des pays où une collècte des statistiques démographiques est bien organisée...., les migrations internationales sont mesurées très approximativement, et un enregistrement des migrations internes est encore pire. (Roland Pressat L'Analyse Démographique. Méthodes, résultats, applications.PUF, Paris, 1961) «Статистические данные о внутренних миграциях отсутствуют часто даже в таких странах, где демографическая статистика хорошо поставлена,… международные миграции измеряются очень приближенно, а миграция внутри страны учитывается еще хуже» (Пресса Р. Народонаселение и его изучение. Демографический анализ), М. 1966,, с.10).

3. Plan • Basic problems of RF statistics of migration • General scheme of national systems of migration data collection in RF – assessment of quality and accessibility • Annual (current) statistics of migration –changes in migration identification criterionas the reason of low quality of data. • Refugees and asylum seekers, labour migrants, border statistics. • Reasons and consequences of contemporary situation in migration data collection in RF • Possible ways out and solutions

5. Basic problems in the sphere of migration data sources in RF • Main data source - annual (current) statistics of migration (based on registration) – has no adequate primary data for processing , new alternative systems were not created yet or are at the first stage of creation. • Other sources of data are involved into operation, as a rule they do not satisfy criteria of reliability or accuracy. • Major part of sample surveys are incomparable or not representative. • Open official statistics is substituted with closed administrative sources of data, whose principles of data collecting and processing are obscure and quality of information can not be estimated. • Russian Federation does not have national system of migration data collection which can provide reliable information on situation in general. There is an obvious and increasing lack in reliable data about flows and socio-demographic parameters of migrants. Incomplete data became probably the only source of information about migrants.

7. Changes in migrants’ identification criteria: • Before 1996- period of stay not less that 45 days, person must cross the border of administrative unit within Russia (internal migration) or RF border Criteria -time and space + place of residence (same methodology used both for RF citizens and foreigners- former USSR citizens)-. Temporary and permanent registration. • Since 1996 (new rules of RF citizens registration)– Two types of registration : by place of residence(migrants are included into stat. observation) and by place of stay (not included into stat. observation) , before 2002 – no limits of prolongation of registration (180 days each), since 2002 – foreigners are registered only for 90 days (12 months legal labour migrant). Police accumulates data only about number of registrationsnot migrants, (and does not estimate separately primary registrations and prolongations). Primary document (Form #12) is filled in only formigrants registered by place of residence - Criterion - place of official residence What happened to foreign migration registration? Reasons of flows underestimation. • 1997 – Special decision of Government - rules (1995) are officially proliferated on foreign citizens • 2000. X. - foreigners need to get residence permit to be registered (many migrants are excluded from observation), • 2002- New Law on foreigners’ status – foreigners should not be observed by current statistics (theoretically)- (additional criterion – citizenship). May 2002 - Decision of 1997 is officially abolished.

8. Influence of criteria change on estimated volumes of foreign migration in Russian Federation (Current statistics data, persons)

9. Underestimation of migration by Federal statistics. Pattern of foreign educational migration. Persons.

10. Typical mistakes in primary information collection • Primary forms are not filled in for some migrants which must be included into statistical observation. • Vice versa: forms are filled in for people, who should not be included into observation (newborn children, people getting new or changing old passports, residential mobility) • Primary forms partially are not forwarded to statistics bureaus • Children under 14 y. o. are included into forms of both parents • Questions left without answers, • Inaccuracy in answers

11. Reasons of annual statistics unsatisfactory quality • Underestimation of arrivals • Wrong migrants identification criterion – migrants with «temporary» registration are excluded from estimation. • Foreign citizens (theoretically) are excluded from estimation (since 2002) according to new rules of registration • Absence of unified methodology of migrants registration all over the country. • Long-term labour and educational migrants are excluded from statistical observation - published data on reasons for move do not reflect real situation (are incorrect). • Underestimation of departures

12. Reasons for move(current statistics of migration)

13. Categories of foreign migrants covered by Census-2002program Full census program (questionnaire) covered: • Foreign citizens and stateless persons – residents of Russian Federation • Persons officially employed in RF (in Russian and foreign organizations and enterprises) and students - if intended to stay in Russia for more that 1 year • Asylumseekers Short census program covered: • Foreign residents who stayed in Russia temporarily and intended to stay here less than for 1 year • Tourists, patients in hospitals, private guests, transit migrants Main results – 1 mln – citizens of foreign countries, 1,3 mln- did not identify citizenship, 40 thous. – have double citizenship.

14. Questions related to migration in the Census-2002 program • Place of birth • Citizenship • Had lived in the place of residence since birth / not since birth • If not – since what year • Arrived from: rural or urban area • Where lived in 1989

15. Statistics of forced migrants and asylum seekers: • Previous place of residence (accumulated and registered during the year under review) • New place of residence (RF regions) • Number of applications for refugee status • Number of refugees by place of origin and place of destination • Age and sex composition • Level of education • Ethnicity • Etc.

16. Labour migration statistics –visible part of an iceberg, (both in- and out migration)(2003 - 378.000 work permits,stock of irregular migrants - appr. 2 - 5 mln) Basic problems (besides underestimation of flow): • Some categories of foreign citizens are not included into estimation (Byelorussians) • Primary work permits and prolonged permits are not estimated separately • Duration of contract is not estimated

17. Foreign workers in RF I. Age and sex structure II. Volume of foreign workers by countries of origin III. Distribution of foreign workers by spheres of occupation and countries of origin IV. Distribution of foreign workers by forms of contract. V. Distribution of foreign workers by forms of employment in RF Distribution of foreign workers by spheres of national economy. RF citizensemployed abroad I. Age and sex structure of RF citizens employed abroad II. Distribution of RF workers by countries of destination, level of education, period of employment according to contract. III. Distribution of RF citizens by categories of employment IV. Distribution of RF citizens employed abroad by forms of occupation V. Professional composition of RF citizens employed abroad Labour migration statistics (available tables and data), defined by Goskomstat decision (2001)

18. Available (published) Border statistics:Foreign citizens’ purposes of trip and countries of origin/ destination

19. RF Federal border service data on entries/ departures of foreign citizens, (millions)

20. Pseudo “Net migration” in exchange with developed countries, RF Federal Border service data (persons).

21. Foreign citizens registration data bank(Planned to be created by January 2006), Responsibleauthority – Federal Migration service Stage 1 (Ministry of home affairs data) • Migration cards information on arrivals and departures of foreigners • Data on refugees and asylum seekers • Labour migrants data (work permits data) Stage 2 (Ministry of home affairs data) • Residence permits, temporary residence permits and stay permits • Information on crimes committed against foreigners and by foreigners Stage 3 (other ministries data) • Federal border service data • Visas and invitations statistics • Customs Committee data • Ministry of taxes data • Other ministries and authorities data on foreigners Stage 4 Information exchange and distribution (rules are not defined)

22. Main considerations which must be taken into account when introducing new systems of data collection • The overall feasibility of the introduction of the new data collecting system or the change of the existing one • The cost related to the change or introduction of the new data collection system or the change of the existing one • The respect of national rules on legal, administrative and statistical aspects • The consideration of national problematic related to international migration and related national susceptibilities or sensibilities • Interest from the side of the authorities (new data collection systems will not be introduced in administrative rules unless they are required for administrative purpose) (Poulain M., Perrin N. Is the measurement of international migration flows improving in Europe? GeDAP-Universite Catholique de Louvain, May 2001. ? , p.15) One more consideration - • Readiness of personnel, responsible for data collecting or processing to work under new conditions .

23. Why do we have such serious problems in the sphere of migration statistics? (Objective and subjective reasons) • RF had no traditions in the field of international migration statistics. • Permanent gap between a) legislation and institutional base and b) demands of changing geo-political conditions. • Lack of efficient control of data collection and processing quality • Problems of financial, technical and cadre resources in the sphere of migration data collection. • Lack of co-operation between authorities responsible for different systems of data collection. • Deficit in co-operation with international experts and institutes in the sphere of migration data collecting and implementation • Absence of discussion between data collectors, processors and users in Russian Federation

24. What are the consequences of situation (possible and real) ? Existing systems can hardly provide reliable information to measure migration flows, describe their structure and analyse their reasons and consequences. Incompetent interpretation of data creates conditions for speculations on irregular migration problem and influence public opinion. It is one of the main reasons of limiting and suppressive approaches in RF migration policy. Lack of reliable statistical information leaves migration policy without correct “landmarks”, causes growth of its costs and risks.

25. Possible ways out and solutions • Legislation in the sphere of data collection, processing and distribution must be revised and changed. • Migrants’ identification criteria must be revised, methodology of current statistics collection should include all long-term migrants. Special measures to exclude double count (if migrant changes his/ her status) must be worked out. • Creation of Foreign citizens central data bank must be widely discussed with potential users. • Discussions between data collectors and users must become regular, questions of data quality, overlapping and combination should be professionally discussed. • Principles of data collection and processing within different administrative data sources must be published. • Limitations in access to data and related information must be revised. • Sample surveys should be possibly conducted to solve most complicated problems of migration analysis.

26. “Comparability of international statistics is so low that it frequently stops the development of a correct analysis”. (Poulain M., Perrin N. Is the measurement of international migration flows improving in Europe? 2001)

27. Additional materials

28. Foreign migration in RF (Goskomstat data, persons)

29. Migrations between Russia and former Soviet Republics(source-M.Denissenko)