Nigeria

1. Nigeria By Sonia Danon, Rebecca Zhang, Jamey Capolupo

2. The Basics Capital: Abuja Population: 151.3 million Currency: Naira Major religions: Muslim 50%, Christian 40%, indigenous beliefs 10% 270,000 children with AIDS 95% of exports are petroleum related 853 km of coastline

3. Precolonial Era (800-1860) • Trade connections – Niger River provides access to ocean • Influence of Islam – Hausa contact and trade with north facilitates integration of Islamic principles • Kinship-based Politics – in the South, political organization was usually at the village level • Complexities – not all governing in north was centralized and not all governing in south was at the village level • Democratic Principles – valued accountability

4. Colonial Era (1860-1960) • Authoritarian rule – in 1860, the British imposed indirect rule • Interventionist State – led to citizens passively accepting the actions of their rulers • Individualism – led to chiefs thinking about personal benefits of governance • Christianity – increase in education and literacy but also intensified cleavages • Intensification of Ethnic Politics – 3 main groups: Hausa-Fulani, Igbo, Yoruba

5. The Era Since Independence (1960-present) • Military Rule • 1966 – Aguyi Ironsi, first military ruler • 1976-70 – Biafran Civil War as a result of Aguyi Ironsi’s assassination • 1979 – Olusegun Obasanjo willingly steps down for democratically elected president Shehu Shagari • 1983 –Shagari forced out of office by military coup led by General Muhammed Buhari • 1999 – democratic election brings Obasanjo back to power

6. The Era Since Independence (1960-present) • Presidential System – 1979 – popularly elected president, separate legislative branch, and independent judiciary • Personalized Rule and Corruption – result of individualism • Federalism – failed attempt to mollify ethnic tensions • Economic Dependence on Oil – economy fluctuates with international oil market

7. The Executive Branch • President Goodluck Jonathan (since 9 February 2010) • the president is both the chief of state and head of government • became president on 5 May 2010 following the death of President Yar'Adua, was Acting President by 9 February 2010 (by the National Assembly) during Yar'Adua's illness

8. The Executive Branch (continued) • Cabinet • Federal Executive Council • Chief of State • President Goodluck Jonathan (since 9 February 2010) - all appts approved by Senate

9. The Legislative Branch • Bicameral National Assembly: • Senate (109 seats, 3 from each state plus 1 from Abuja; members elected by popular vote to serve four-year terms) • House of Representatives (360 seats; members elected by popular vote to serve four-year terms)

10. Judicial Branch • Supreme Court - judges recommended by the National Judicial Council and appointed by the president • Federal Court of Appeal - judges are appointed by the federal government from a pool of judges recommended by the National Judicial Council - 14 justices Justice Ayo Salami, Nigeria Court of Appeal President

11. Political Parties • PDP is dominating party since 1999 • All Nigeria People’s Party (ANPP), Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) - North • Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) - South

12. Legitimacy Prebendalism (patron-clientelism) - the use of favors and bribes to create a loyal system of patrons and clients Nigerian government and MOCs prosper, communities decline Imbalance in power

13. Disunity: Politics

14. Disunity: Ethnic

15. Disunity: Wealth

16. Disunity: Health

17. Disunity: Literacy

18. Disunity: Oil

19. Political Culture • Patron-clientelism – exchanging political favors • State control and a rich civil society • Tension between modernity and tradition • Religious Conflict • Geographic influence

20. Discussion on Disunity • Which aspect of their social or political culture do you think contributes most to their disunity? • Ideally, should Nigeria be split based on ethnic divisions or should it remain unified? • Do you think this is possible given Nigeria’s current state?

21. 2007 Election • According to Nigeria's Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), the PDP won the election, with Umaru Yar'Adua as their candidate, in a landslide • Intimidation • Fabricated results • Lack of secrecy • Major setback for democracy

22. Upcoming Elections • Most expensive election in Africa’s history • Main Issues: Security, Corruption, Electricity, Postponement, Violence • 73.5 million registered voters (out of 151.3 million) - voting age is 18 • 9 April: Legislative elections - 109 senators • 16 April: Presidential - 20 candidates • April: State governors - 36 governors • 54 parties • Supposed to be held Jan 22

23. Postponement • 4/2/11 (Sat) to 4/4/11(Mon), NOW: 4/9/11(Sat) • announced by Independent National Electoral Commission (Inec) head AttahiruJega • “logistical problems” - ex. absence of voting materials from many polling stations

24. Violence Security • High security - borders closed with limited road traffic allowed • Ballot boxes being stolen • Nigerian elections historically marked by violence • Amnesty International: at least 20 people killed in election-related clash over last • Deadly bomb blast on the morning of elections

25. Postponement Discussion • Do you think the delay of the elections is good or bad? Causes: • Party logos and names not showing up on the ballot • Materials not showing up • Voter names not showing up on registration lists Effects: • Ballots exposed due to postponement • Voter intimidation (threatening/loitering by voting stations with guns/bribing) •  Parties station by voting area to control the votes

26. Election Video • http://www.cnn.com/video/#/video/world/2011/04/11/bs.purefoy.nigeria.election.cnn?iref=allsearch

27. Candidates20 Presidential, 4 main contenders Muhammadu Buhari Goodluck Jonathan Ibrahim Shekarau Nuhu Ribadu

28. Muhammadu Buhari • Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) • Age 68, Muslim from northern Nigeria • Military ruler of Nigeria from 1984 to 1985 - deposed in a coup • Poor human rights record • Defeated in last 2 elections • Depend on dissatisfied northern members of PDP for support

29. Goodluck Jonathan • People’s Democratic Party (PDP) • became President after Yar’Adua ‘s death • Christian from southern Ijaw ethnic group

30. Nuhu Ribadu • Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) • former head of Nigeria’s anti-fraud police ( head of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission) • ACN party boss Bola Tinubu taints image • threatened by Yar’Adua’s presidency • few clear policies on trade, power, the economy or education

31. Ibrahim Shekarau • All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) • current governor of Kano State • previously in education administration • rejected polio vaccinations (attempts to make Muslim women infertile)

32. Predictions • Buhari’s biggest contender • undermine PDP - tradition of alternating power • Run-off election • CPC and ACN even talk of producing joint northern candidate. • Early indications of election votes’ counting show decline of PDP, the ruling party – slipping in power?

33. Some Election Results 46 results out of 94 senatorial districts: •  ACN has 14 seats (30.4%), •  ANPP 1 seat (2.2%), • APGA 1 seat (2.2%), • CPC 3 seats (6.5%), • LP 2 seats (4.3%), • PDP 25 seats (54.3%)

34. Results Cont’d 80 results have been gotten out of 315 constituencies: ACCORD has 3 seats (3.8%), • ACN 23 seats (28.8%), • APGA 2 seats (2.5%), • CPC 5 seats (6.3%), • LP 1 seat (1.3%), • PDP 45 seats (56.3%), • PPN 1 seat (1.3%)

35. Discussion on Elections • What do you think the 2011 election’s impact on the Nigerian people will be in terms of their vision of future democracy and the government’s legitimacy? • Who do you think will win the presidential elections? • How will the disunity of Nigeria play in the elections and future politics? • Compare it to the democratic elections of other countries.