World Agriculture Today: Unprecedented Threats Versus Unmatched Power

1. World Agriculture Today: Unprecedented Threats Versus Unmatched Power Biotechnology and Agriculture SummitBeijing, ChinaApril 25-26, 2008 RenWang CGIAR Director

2. Outline • The food crisis • Why is agriculture important? • How can the CGIAR help?

3. World Commodity Prices, January 2000-February 2008

4. More Expensive Food • World price of maize increased by 80% from 2005 to 2007 and has risen further since then. • Price of powdered milk has increased by 90%. • Wheat price up by 70%. • World price of Thai rice was US$362 per ton in December 2007 but almost doubled to $715 in March 2008

5. Consequences of Increased Food Prices • Reduced food security, particularly affecting both rural and urban poor • Deepening poverty • Deteriorating health and nutrition • Social unrest • Food price increase is likely to continue in the near future

6. Expected Numbers of Undernourished People Source: Adapted from Tubiello and Fischer 2007.

7. Driving Forces of Food Price Inflation • Growing population and food demand. • Rising incomes, which boost demand for higher value foods like meat. • More expensive energy, meaning higher production/transport costs. • Stagnant crop productivity increase that does not match the demand increase. • Shift to biofuel feedstocks (30% of US maize production), leaving less for food and feed. • Shrinking area of cultivable land as a result of urbanization. • Adverse weather, especially drought, with worse to come because of climate change.

8. The Cereals Yield Gap between sub-Saharan Africa and other Regions

9. Growth Rates in Yields of Major Cereals in Developing Countries

10. Expected Impacts of Climate Change on Global Cereal Production Source: Adapted from Tubiello and Fischer 2007.

11. World Leaders’ Responses • World Bank President, Mr. Robert Zoellick called for a “new deal” in agriculture. • The World Bank, IFAD, FAO calling for emergency donor pledge of $500 M to the World Food Program • US President George W. Bush immediate response of a $200 M emergency pledge to the WFP • UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown’s letter to the Japanese Prime Minister, the 2008 G8 Chair, calling for coordinated international response. • CGIAR, especially IFPRI and IRRI are in the forefront of analysing the crises and advising on near term remedy strategies and medium to longer term solutions.

12. World Development Report 2008: Main Messages • Governments and donors must give agriculture higher priority to achieve sustainable development. • Agriculture offers better development opportunities today than in previous decades. • Effective implementation of sound strategies for agricultural development is the main challenge.

13. Agriculture’s Unmatched Development Power Source: Derek Byerlee, WDR 08 presentation

14. 80% 20% 0 0 50% 100% Agriculture’s Three Worlds Agriculturebasedcountries Mainly Sub-Saharan-Africa 417 million rural people Agriculture’s share of economic growth, 1990-2005 Transformingcountries Mainly South and East Asia, Middle East and North Africa 2.2 billion rural people Urbanizedcountries Mainly Latin America, Central Asia 255 million rural people Rural poor as percentage of total poor, 2002 Source: Derek Byerlee, WDR 08 presentation

15. Development Agendas for Different Worlds: Agriculture-based Countries • Smallholder-based productivity growth for stronger food security. • More efficient markets and value chains. • Greater smallholder competitiveness in areas of medium to high potential. • More resilient subsistence farming systems. • Diversified livelihoods.

16. Development Agendas for Different Worlds: Transforming Countries • Multiple pathways out of poverty to reduce rural urban income disparities. • Shift to high-value agriculture. • Decentralize non-farm economic activities to rural areas. • Assist in moving people out of agriculture.

17. Is World Agricultural Faltering or Poised for Unprecedented Success? • After years of neglect, agriculture can meet the challenges of food price inflation and climate change. • But this requires, among other things, a renewed commitment to agricultural science for technological innovation.

18. The CGIAR: A Strategic Partnership • World’s largest scientific partnership • Cosponsored by the World Bank, FAO, IFAD and UNDP • 64 independent Members from public and private sector in South and North: • 15 international Centers • International public goods: knowledge, technology, policy advice and special services • 8,500 scientists and staff in more than 100 countries • Annual Budget in 2007 (actual): US$506 million • 47 countries (25 developing and 22 developed) • 13 international and regional organizations • 4 foundations

19. CGIAR Around the Globe ICARDA Aleppo, Syria IFPRI Washington, DC USA ICRISAT Patancheru India IRRI Los Baños Philippines Bioversity International Rome,Italy WorldFish Penang Malaysia IITA Ibadan Nigeria CIMMYT Mexico City Mexico IWMI Colombo Sri Lanka ILRI Nairobi Kenya CIFOR Bogor Indonesia CIP Lima, Peru CIAT Cali Colombia Africa Rice Center-WARDA Cotonou, Benin World Agroforestry Nairobi, Kenya

20. CGIAR’s strategies and Core Competencies • Sustaining biodiversity for current and future generations. • Producing more and better food at lower cost through genetic improvements. • Reducing rural poverty through agricultural diversification and emerging opportunities for high-value commodities and products. • Sustainable management of water, land, and forest resources. • Improving policies and facilitating institutional innovation to support sustainable reduction of poverty and hunger.

21. 117,000 samples of crops grown in world’s dry areas 40,000 samples of crops and plants important for Africa 6,000 endangered varieties of Latin American maize 5,400 potato specimens 110, 000 accessions of rice Saving Agrobiodiversity • CGIAR holds in public trust the world’s largest collections of plant genetic resources – more than 600,000 samples:

22. Examples of Achievement • For every dollar invested in CGIAR research since 1971, US$9 worth of additional food produced. • Over 90% of the hybrid rice varieties grown in China used genetic materials from CGIAR (IRRI) • NERICA (New Rice for Africa) planted on 200,000 ha across Africa • Drought-tolerant maize giving 30% higher yields and planted on more than 250,000 hectares in southern Africa • New cassava varieties achieving 40% on-farm yield gains in Ghana and Nigeria, even without fertilizer.

23. Declining Funding Trend in the CGIAR 2007 unrestricted funding for CGIAR Centers % unrestricted vs restricted funding

24. Total Public and Private Agricultural R&D Expenditures

25. CGIAR funds allocations 80 Share productivity research Share environment research 70 60 50 % CG spending 40 30 20 10 0 1972-75 1976-79 1980-83 1984-87 1988-91 1992-95 1996-99 2000-03 2004-05 D. Byerlee, www.worldbank.org/WDR2008

26. Yield Growth Differentials, by Period (1966-94 cf 1995-2005) for Major Food and Cotton in Developing Countries 3.5 Rapeseed 3.0 Wheat Soybean 2.5 Rice, paddy Maize 2.0 Cotton lint Yield growth during1966 - 1994 1.5 Sorghum 1.0 Beans, dry Barley 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 Yield growth during 1995 - 2005 J. Dixon et al., CIMMYT, 2008 J. Dixon et al., CIMMYT, 2008

27. Science and technology input should be an important component of the “New Deal” in Agriculture CGIAR can contribute significantly to the “New Deal” and the medium to longer term solutions to food security

28. A focused campaign to raise the productivity of rainfed systems • Diverse and heterogeneous agroecosysem with crop yield at 1-2 ton/ha • Restricted cultivation period due to climatic constraints. • Low input by farmers. • Heavy dependence on and driven by availability (in location, time and quantity) of natural resources. • A “basket” of improved technologies are becoming available, e.g. upland rice production system in Yunnan, China; drought tolerant maize in E. Africa; drought tolerant rice varieties in E. India that can yield up to 3.5-4 ton/ha

29. More Efficient Crop Management that help farmers to close the yield gap and increase profit • Agronomic management technologies that can help small holder farmers close the yield gap By ending tillage for wheat, farmers in Haryana save water, money, diesel

30. More Efficient Crop Production and Postharvest Handling • Accelerate delivery of new postharvest technologies to reduce losses (typically 10-15% of the yield). Hermetically stored seed remains viable without need for aircooled storage

31. Renewed Commitment to long term exploratory research that may lead to quantum leap breakthroughs in crop yields • Unlock the potential of the vast reservoir of genes contained in crop and animal genetic resources. • High risk but potentially high return research such as the development of C4 rice that can increase rice yield by 30-40% Transform rice from C3 plant to C4 plant like maize

32. Evolution of rice production in Korea Promote agricultural mechanization that are suitable for small holder farmers Today 1970’s

33. Information on the CGIAR CGIAR Secretariat MSN G6-601 1818 H Street NW Washington, D.C. 20433 Phone: (202) 473-8951 Fax: (202) 473-8110 E-mail: cgiar@cgiar.org Web: www.cgiar.org

34. THANK YOU!