Sentinel 2 Preparatory Symposium 23-27 April 2012, ESA- ESRIN, Frascati, Italia User Consultation AGRICULTURE

1. Sentinel 2 Preparatory Symposium23-27 April 2012, ESA- ESRIN, Frascati, ItaliaUser Consultation AGRICULTURE Sentinel 2 in the framework of MARS Activities

2. Forewords 5 June 2014 2 • Following official presentation made by MARS (AGRICULTURE S.1) But dropping, to avoid repetition, general information and illustrations • on MARS or on GEOGLAM initiative • Focus is kept on 2 main operational programs 1 - Controls With Remote Sensing 2 - MARS crop monitoring and yield forecasting • Crop monitoring activities in Africaarenot developed here, as addressed by other speakers • and present first developments on possible use of S2 , and contribute to the Seed Questions of ESA… • This includes personal thinking, vision or questions to feed the debate NB: The views expressed are purely those of the writer and may not in any circumstances be regarded as stating an official position of the European Commission

3. 1 - Controls with Remote Sensing (CwRS) 5 June 2014 3 • Verification at parcel + farm level of the claims for CAP subsidies (> 55 Bio Euros in 2011) • Eligibility of land use and cross-compliance with Good Agricultural and Environmental conditions (GAECS) • Using both Very High Resolution (<= 1 m) and several High resolution images (5-30 m) • A number of options within a EU common framework of standards and technical tolerances managed by JRC • CWRS are part on objective On-the-Spots Checks + used to assess the quality of the Digital Reference parcels (LPIS) in 2011: 340 000 Farmers / 430 control zones (Geo. Clusters)

4. 2011 Campaign : Control sites and imagery Image provision for CwRS today 5 June 2014 5

5. 6 Image provision for CwRS today Evolution of image acquisitions for the CwRS X 2,3 X11 X 20 X3,7 * Including LPIS QA zones

6. CwRS Future evolutions 2014 -2020 5 June 2014 7 CAP reform after 2013 ? Horizontal Regulations “CAP Towards 2020” foresees continuation of CwRS as part of on the Spot Checks (as IACS and LPIS maintenance) EUROPEAN COURT OF AUDITORS (Press Release- 10 Nov. 11) “ For Agriculture and natural resources the estimated error rate was 2.3%. The direct payments covered by IACS, which accounted for almost €40 billion of total spending of €56.8 billion in this area, were found to be free from material error “

7. Windbreak hedge Protected isolated trees Riparian forest buffer Area of high natural value Filter strip Protected permanent pasture CwRS Future evolutions 2014 -2020 5 June 2014 8 • New controls requirements linked to the 3 compulsorily “Greening Payments” • Crop diversification • Permanent Grassland • Ecological focus areas … • → Clear increase of HR + multi-date • But also • Trend of smaller control sites, Some MS using 2 x VHR • No increase of budget …. Expected decrease of VHR Costs due to competitive market Possibility of increase of HR - Advantage of RedEdge also identifed on World View 2 (G. Peroni, 2010) Warning : Possible CONFLICT with present MARKET

8. 3 more promising applications to be developed CwRS Future evolutions 2014 -2020 Key Contribution of Sentinel 2 Large Swath for wall to wall inventory Multidate to characterise semi natural features ( montlhy?) or capture key management practices ? May allow real rotation control (VS Diversification) - regulatory issues and possible confusion Technical Challenges: none if simple automatic classif/ LPIS vector data volumes and more complex process treatment (buffer, object) Initiative by MS ? More exploratory or focused on spec case? 5 June 2014 9 1 - Wall to wall Control or pre-control ? (Risk analysis) • Taking benefit of large swath of S2 • More as a tool for risk analysis - targeting control sites Feasible but not in the present “air du temps” (simplification policy)

9. 3 more promising applications to be developed CwRS Future evolutions 2014 -2020 Key Contribution of Sentinel 2 Multidate to characterise semi natural features ( monthly?) or capture management practices ? Large Swath for wall to wall for inventory Possible training / validation by IACS Geospatial and CWRS VHR Sample Road Map : Pilot and demonstration in some MS 5 June 2014 10 2 - Impact assessment of the CAP and of its greening • Combining both IACS, statistics, EO wall to wall coverage • Addressing both first and second CAP Pillar Technical Challenges: indicators ? Appropriate regional scale? Objective methodologies ? Mapping baseline ( i.e 2013) !

10. 3 more promising applications to be developed CwRS Future evolutions 2014 -2020 Key Contribution of Sentinel 2 IDEM Multidate to characterise semi natural features ( montlhy?) or capture management practices ? Large Swath for wall to wall for inventory Possible training / validation by IACS Geospatial and CWRS VHR Sample Road Map : Pilot and demonstration in some MS 5 June 2014 11 3 - Mapping – monitoring products in support to FAS (Farm Advisory Systems) ? • Contextual info and understanding of rural landscape dynamique • Appropriate recommendations on farm land management • New measures related to 2nd pillar CC,

11. MARS Crop Monitoring & yield Forecasting 5 June 2014 12 • Developed since 25 years based on EO + Agromet crop development models • Covering both AREA and YIELD components, with schematically • AREA Estimates = (Very) High Resolution + ground survey AFS • YIELD = Low Resolution 10 d + Crop Models wall to wall + GRID • Semi- deterministics models + convergence of evidence analysis for Yield+ deviation from normal conditions • In the European Context (respective contribution to inter-annual variability, other sources of information available, STATS, CAP) • Focus on Yield with Models using Agromet and EO indicators • Area estimate by Trend function or provided by Eurostat. • Little developments on area estimates since 15 Years

12. Area Estimates: MARS Regional inventories (1988-1996) Adapting to the EU the USDA method AFS with square segments were cheaper to implement than segments with physical boundaries, for similar quality of estimates Images used for Stratification + Regression estimator i.e classified images (1-2 Dates) as ancillary variable Relative efficiency lower than in the US (more complex landscape). Cost-efficiency with Landsat TM slightly below threshold in the 90’s Expected S2 improvements: Large Swath multi-date ! MARS Crop Monitoring & yield Forecasting Ground data + images Estimates

13. Rapid estimates of crop area change (1992-97) (“Activity B”) Pure remote sensing approach Sample of 60 sites of 40x40 km 4 images per site every year (mainly SPOT) Some ground data of the previous years (to train CAPI and/or image classification) Good results for dominant crops: Ex. <1.5 % error for total EU cereals area, despite rather poor sampling But the margin for subjectivity was around ± 20% Much “weaker” results when the changes were difficult to forecast MARS Crop Monitoring & yield Forecasting

14. MARS Crop Monitoring Future requirements • Ongoing 2012 Modelling new crops Rye and Triticale Monthly Bulletin Calendar as inputs to AMIS – G20 • 2013-14 Development of Quantitative Pasture monitoring • Possible feasibility study in 2012/13 to implement of methods for quantitative pasture analysis… • Need of mapping info describing appropriate typology and management of EU pasture • 2020: Towards Global Monitoring capacities ??? GLOBCAST Feasibility study (2010-2011)

15. MARS Crop Monitoring Future requirements General objectives of GLOBCAST • Monitor the impact of weather in main grain producing areas 4 Zones of the world • Produce short-term forecasts • Russia, Black Sea and CIS • (wheat, barley, maize) 4. North America (wheat, barley, soybean, maize, rapeseed) 2. Asia (China, India) & Australia (wheat, rice) 3. South America (wheat, soybean, sugarcane, maize)

16. G 20 initiatives GEO-GLAM and AMIS • The EC, Member of the G20, signed the G20 Action plan on Agriculture price volatility • DG AGRI strongly supports the 2 Initiatives on market transparency • EU timely reporting for AMIS and Improve information on stocks AGRI front line • Contribute to GEO –GLAM, by sharing MARS data and model outputs with other stakeholders, in particular FAO GIEWS JRC H04 • Position included in the EC Report to EU Council and Parliament (August 2011) • GEOGLAM has a strong interest to complete the overall action plan by Capacity Building in countries at risks • Uncertainties and challenges linked to budgeting and governance

17. Main outcomes of GLOBCAST Feasibility MARS Crop Monitoring Future requirements 5 June 2014 19 • Definition of various system configurations in term component and level (basic to intermediate) and possible road maps • Overall funding and deployment strategies under discussion with DG AGRI (2014-2020) • Increase role of EO Low resolution data // ground meteo stations • Mainly a analysis / decision support system for yield • Main running costs are related to staff • key requirement of experienced analysts • Area Estimates becomes a major component

18. Courtesy from Larry Beard Potential S2 Development on Area estimates ? 5 June 2014 20 • Best approach: USDA NASS Cropland Data Layer (CDL) • “Census by Satellite” Operational Annually Program - cover US major crops and regions • Provide timely, accurate, useful estimates • Measurable error, Unbiased/independent estimator • State, District, County • Deliver in-season remote sensing acreage estimates • For June, August, September, and October • Official USDA Reports • use of bi-monthly DMC Deimos-1 & UK2 & Landsat 5 & 7 (see PECORA presentation) • Wide public data dissemination The ideal example, but CDL relies on heavy NASS AF ground surveys

19. Potential S2 Development on Area estimates 5 June 2014 22 • Since 3 years, MARS involved in Pilots studies in Ukraine, Spain, Italy , China (with VITO – Geoland2) MALAWI (with GMFS) or MOROCCO • Multi-date hard and soft classification, un-mixing, neural network… • Common evaluation and user utility assessment ongoing • Need of a comprehensive EU R&D work program • In Europe: • How to use existing point survey (LUCAS,IACS admin data ?) • Demonstrate the added value of mapping products and small area estimate • Outside Europe: • Light point survey ? Substitution of ground data by VHR data sample? Use of Wiki and Google? • Different combination of Satellite and spatial resolution…

20. Potential S2 Development on Area estimates 5 June 2014 23 • Possible image requirements • S2 Resolution OK • S2 Swath = Key Improvement compared to Landsat /SPOT • See for DEIMOS USDA NASS ( Pecora ppt) • in EU Larger than 300 km raise other issue (climatic gradient) • Likely Improvement by RedEdge for crop discrimination • Level 1 C TBC? Radiometry and geometry a priori less critical • Mutidate ? Basically montly or bi monthly target along cropping campaign … ie circa 10 dates • A Priori Wall to wall coverage of Agricultural Zones • ?? But possible sampling if seed for Low Mid- Resolution un-mixing ??? • According to context and dynamic • Yearly to 5 Yearly • In case of 5 Yearly – Possible light method yearly

21. Potential S2 Development on Area estimates 5 June 2014 24 • Key issues are • Overall design and optimisation of “ground data” • Field survey design (segments, points) • Possible substitution with CAPI- VHR • Statistical estimators area (regression or Calibration estimators) • Difference indicators in multi annual • Cloud cover (not critical) but to be assess // Optimisation of management of single image // compositing products) • user assessment for pluri-annual strategy • Overall coherency and coordination with UN “GLOBAL STRATEGY to IMPROVE AGRICULTURE and RURAL STATISTICS” !

22. Potential S2 Development on Yield modelling 5 June 2014 25 • Huge potential / expectations from relevant Bio Parameters for crop specific, time profile (5- 10 Days) • Clarify revisit cycle, angle and radiometric issues, Need of Level 2 top of atmosphere, produced with state of the art and agreed by Research + users But DATA VOLUME – COMPUTING TIME for data assimilation / running crop models !Min x 250 000 factor to pass from present 10 -25 km Grids to 10 -20 m !! What are the best trade off ? Medium term Feeding present agro met grid models with local crop specific parameters ? Designing ASAP an EU panel site sample? A Global one, links with JECAM ? (Very) Long Term ??? Change of crop monitoring paradigm? +/- complete restructuring: Area and yield components observed on a coherent (same) sample ???? Consolidation of R&D results, need of a minimum archive, lots of S.W.O.T analysis and engineering …..

23. Summary conclusions Huge technical capacities and potential development for crop monitoring Absolute need of operational ground segment and (pre+ post) processing facilities with Free data policy Historical opportunities to build an EU - US coordination and effective inter-operability S2 – LDCM, and ensure an EU contribution to Global Crop monitoring Capacities, in particular for Africa. • AREA Estimates and mapping are the most immediate applications • Strong potential to feed present AGROMET GRID MODELS with S2 State variable ( design of sites sample ? ) • S2 may open the way to radical change in overall system design in long term … Need to foster present research and further develop vision to prepare possible 3rd generation crop monitoring systems (post 2020 – 30) 5 June 2014 26

24. Thanks for your attention ! 20years of in support to the implementation and monitoring of Common Agricultural Policy 5 June 2014 27 Olivier LEO JRC H04 Unit with inputs from Bettina BARRUTH, Philippe LOUDJANI, Javier GALLEGO, Hervé KERDILES, Paer AASTRAND