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Air pollution outlooks - an evaluation

Air pollution outlooks - an evaluation. Integrated assessment methodology and tools applied to air pollution and greenhouse gases Roel van Aalst, EEA 10-5-01. Goals of the study. Evaluate past experience in baseline projections for the report Environment in the EU at the Turn of the Century

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Air pollution outlooks - an evaluation

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  1. Air pollution outlooks - an evaluation Integrated assessment methodology and tools applied to air pollution and greenhouse gases Roel van Aalst, EEA 10-5-01

  2. Goals of the study • Evaluate past experience in baseline projections for the report Environment in the EU at the Turn of the Century • Perform sensitivity analysis • Explore options for a future integrated assessment strategies The study was conducted by a consortium of ETC/AQ, ETC/AE, IIASA and NTUA led by RIVM, under coordination of an EEA team. A draft report will be available soon

  3. Integrated Assessment Economy & population D energy transport industry agriculture ……… P CO2 GHG SO2 NOx VOC NHx PM10 Emissions Air quality S SO2 NO2 O3 PM10 SO2 NO2 O3 PM10 regional urban

  4. ENERGY Basis: Shared Analysis; PRIMES model • Update • Sensitivity analysis

  5. ENERGY Update • energy prices and taxes • transport volume • inclusion of the EU-ACEA agreement. Result: - 2 % CO2 emissions in 2010. If the EU-ACEA agreement fails, + 2 % CO2 emissions .

  6. ENERGY Sensitivity analysis Electricity liberalization variant: Important changes in the fuel mix CO2 emission is not affected Renewables variant: 2010 1 % less emissions of CO2 20205 % less

  7. TRANSPORT Basis: Shared Analysis; PRIMES • Variant: Auto-Oil II (Tremove/ForeMove/COPERT)

  8. TRANSPORT ShAIR vs. baseline Auto Oil II scenario: different energy figures for base year 1990 differences in 2010 of ca. 10 % for NOx and 15 % for VOC for nine MS major discrepancies between transport, bottom-up scenarios and energy, top-down scenarios to be clarified

  9. AGRICULTURE • No long-term future agriculture trend information is available.

  10. Methodological issues • Inconsistencies in scenario assumptions (transport and energy scenarios) • Misconnections between various modules (regional-urban, global-regional) • Information incomplete or unavailable (non- CO2 GHG, PM10, agriculture scenarios, urban measures, accession countries)

  11. Greenhouse gases • EU emissions in 2010 4% above 1990 OR 12% above Kyoto target in this scenario • Reduced emissions of CH4 (-26 %) and N2O (-14 %) • Update: CO2 -2 %; +2 % if ACEA agreement fails • Stimulation of renewable energy can bring CO2 emissions several percents down in 2020

  12. Greenhouse gases • Strong need for national information on future trends for the six greenhouse gases and for extension of the current approach for GHG to other European countries. • Emission projection models are needed for CO2 emissions from non-energy sources, CH4, N2O; dedicated studies are recommended for HFC, PFC and SF6.

  13. Regional air quality Basis: IIASA RAINS/Shared Analysis • Auto-Oil variant (See transport) • Accession Countries EU emission standards variant

  14. Regional air quality • Substantial emission reductions • Emission Ceilings not met in 2010 (VOC, SO2) • Growing importance of NH3 • Improvement of PM inventories and emission projections urgent • inclusion of PM in the RAINS model

  15. Regional air quality • Strong link to Climate Change measures • Via fuel mix • CH4 reduction reduces background ozone • EU legislation key to emission in Accession countries • Positive impact to EU air quality

  16. Urban air quality Basis: Auto-Oil-II GEA • Urban Air quality improves drastically towards 2010/2020, but exceedances remain • Excess mortality due to SO2 in central Europe decreases sharply

  17. URBAN AQ: SENSITIVITY • Modelled concentrations are sensitive to meteorological conditions. The reduction in urban emissions needed to meet the air quality objectives may vary up to 50-60 % • Hourly regional background concentrations, necessary input for calculating exeedances in urban areas, not available from RAINS

  18. Essential conditions • Cooperation with other international organizations • Close interaction with stakeholders • Well connected to sectors • Involving accession countries

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