Global Consumer Markets Service

1. Global Consumer Markets Service Mike Sweet, Senior Consultant, Business Planning Solutions Michael.sweet@globalinsight.com 781-301-9039 July 2004

2. Global Insight • Premier economic analysis and consulting organization • Most comprehensive coverage of countries, regions and industries available from any single source • Common analytical framework and a consistent set of assumptions applied to diverse capabilities and products • The BEST track record among commercial forecasters. Wall Street Journal, January 2, 2004 • Broad range of capabilities covering: • Consumer Market Sizing • Demographic Analysis • Performance Benchmarking Tools • Retail Sales & Consumer Spending Forecasting • Strategic and Tactical Planning Tools

3. Global Consumer Markets • Coverage • Samples and Case Studies • Deliverables

4. Global Consumer Markets Database A Tool to … • Assess Overall Market Attractiveness • Size Country Markets • Anticipate Growth by Customer Segment • Identify Market Risk & Exposure • Conduct Product Penetration Rate Analysis Income Distribution Demographics Socio-Economics Size & Forecast Your target market

5. Global Consumer Markets Database Uncover market opportunity & risk • Cross-country comparable data • 10-year forecasts plus 10 or more years of history, annual frequency • 22 consumer product categories • Detailed household income distribution forecasts • 95 Countries • Population by gender and age • Ability to generate custom alternative scenarios • Semi-annual updates

6. Take it to the Next Level

7. Consumer Spending & Risk Consumer Market Risk Indicator Custom weighted index of relevant risk factors to companies servicing the consumer markets

8. Demographics and Income Distribution by Country Household Income Distribution * <$5K >$5K–<$10K >$10K–<$20K >$20K–<$30K >$30K–<$40K >$40K–<$50K >$50K–<$60K >$60K–<$70K >$70K–<$80K >$80K–<$90K >$90K–<$100K >$100K–<$150K >$150K * Additional segments can be added on a custom basis Socio - Economics Urban Population Households and Average Household Size Educational Attainment Index and Illiteracy Rate Education Expenditures Health Expenditures Education Enrollment (primary, secondary, tertiary) Labor Force (male and female), unemployment Life Expectancy and Fertility Rate Population by Age and Sex 0 to 14 15 to 19 20 to 24 25 to 29 Total population 30 to 44 44 to 54 55 to 64 Over 65

9. Global Consumer Markets • Coverage • Samples and Case Studies • Deliverables

10. Data is Delivered in an Easy-to-use Excel Format

11. Data is Delivered in an Easy-to-use Excel Format

12. Risk and Reward Trade-off: Selected Countries A composite measure of risk facing companies selling to consumer markets Risk vs. Reward: What’s your comfort level? High risk markets offering poor growth Risk vs. Reward Lower risk, high opportunity markets Size of Circles = 2003 market size

13. Ranking of Markets by Number of Households Earning $10,000 or More Number of households with income >US $10,000 (1997$) Source: Global Insight’s Global Consumer Model (incorporating U.N. and World Bank data)

14. Number of young children peaked in 1996 Population 0 to 4 years old (millions) Changing demographics in your core segments can have a profound impact on market demand

15. Case Study #1 – Calculating Company X’s Market Opportunity in Brazil X =

16. Case Study #1 – Calculating Company X’s Market Opportunity in Brazil 260 2003-2020 CAGR = 3% 240 2003 represents an inflection point for market growth 220 200 Missed Opportunity Index 1987 = 100 180 160 140 2003-2020 CAGR = 1.6% 120 100 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2019 1995 2011 2017 1987 1989 1991 1993 2013 2015 Total Households Potential Customers

17. Case Study # 2 -Global Beverage Manufacturer Global demand for alcohol will expand rapidly, as key emerging markets mature. Growth in China and India’s middle class markets will lead the way. 1200 2003-2020 CAGR = 6.5% 1000 800 Billions of Nominal US$ 600 400 200 2003-2020 CAGR = 4.4% 0 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2018 2020 2012 1988 1990 1992 1994 2014 2016 Non-Alcoholic Beverages Alcoholic Beverages

18. Case Study # 2 -Global Beverage Manufacturer • Developed detailed beverage forecasts by country using sales volume data from Beverage Marketing Corporation • 6 non-alcoholic beverage categories • carbonated soda, fruit drinks, milk, tea drinks, coffee drinks and bottled waters • 3 alcoholic beverage categories • beer, wine and spirits • Effects of substitution and complementarities across categories were incorporated Global Demand for Alcoholic Beverages Country X

19. Case Study # 3 -Developing a Market Attractiveness Index • Identify key determinants of market attractiveness • Weight indicators based on their relative importance • Rank country and regional markets • Allocate sales and marketing resources Note: Rank is from 1 (Best - top 10% of countries) to 10 (Worst - bottom 10% of countries). The lower the score, the more attractive the country.

20. Global Consumer Markets • Coverage • Samples and Case Studies • Deliverables

21. Deliverables & Pricing • Microsoft Excel™ workbook format with tools for screening and selection • Semi-annual updates: Q1 and Q3 • Ongoing access to Global Insight’s consumer economists to answer questions about the published outlook • Custom Segmentation & Market Benchmarks – Priced on a project basis

22. Power of Global Perspective • Global Insight’s Global Consumer Markets Database provides • A comprehensive view of worldwide consumer market activity  • A 10-year forecasts • Consumer spending by 22 product categories • Insight into socio-economic, demographic and household income trends for 95 countries • The strategic insight to identify and compare business opportunities and market risks critical for success