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Chapter 1: Assessing the Environment: Political, Economic, Legal, Technological. Instructor: Tran Nam Giang. Learning Objectives. Research the environment in which a company operates or will operate in order to assess: the political risks the economic risks the regulatory risks
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Chapter 1:Assessing the Environment:Political, Economic, Legal, Technological Instructor: Tran Nam Giang
Learning Objectives • Research the environment in which a company operates or will operate in order to assess: • the political risks • the economic risks • the regulatory risks • technological risks
Political Risk • Any governmental action or politically motivated event that could adversely affect the long-run profitability or value of a firm • Example: “… Bolivia nationalized its natural-gas industry, ordering foreign companies to give up control of fields and accept much tougher operating terms within six months or leave the country” Wall Street Journal 2006 • Why do governments do that?
Common Political Risk Events • Expropriation of corporate assets • Forced sale of equity to host-country nationals • Legal discrimination • Barriers to repatriation of funds • Loss of technology or other IP • Interference in managerial decision making • Dishonesty by government officials regarding contracts
Political Risk Assessment • Helps companies manage exposure to risk and minimize financial loss • Two forms: • Consultation with experts • Development of internal staff capabilities
Options for Managing Political Risk • Avoidance • Adaptation: equity sharing, localization, development assistance • Dependency: keep subsidiary & host nation dependent on parent firm • Hedging: insurance, local debt financing
Economic Risk • Is closely related to political risk • Types of economic risks • Loss of profitability due to abrupt changes in monetary and fiscal policies • Loss of profitability due to changes in foreign investment policies. • E.g. barriers in profit repatriation, changes in interest rate, exchange rate
Four Approaches to Assessing Economic Risk • Quantitative: assess economic variables (GDP, income, unemployment rate, inflation, budget, imports, exports, debts) • Qualitative: assess the competence of leaders • Checklist: easily measurable and timely criteria • A combination of these methods
Regulatory Risks • Protectionist policies, such as tariffs or quotas • The attractiveness of the tax system • The level of government involvement in the economic and regulatory environment
Technological Risks • The appropriability of technology: ability to profit from innovating technology maybe restricted • Inappropriate use of technology by others • Appropriateness of technology for the local environment