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Nursing Workforce

Nursing Workforce. Graham Dyer CEO Wairarapa and Hutt Valley DHB’s Board Member HWNZ Chair ERSG. The aging population. Between 2001 and 2021, the number of over 65’s will increase from 461k to 729k This is an increase of 72% vs a popn increase of 16%.

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Nursing Workforce

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  1. Nursing Workforce Graham Dyer CEO Wairarapa and Hutt Valley DHB’s Board Member HWNZ Chair ERSG

  2. The aging population • Between 2001 and 2021, the number of over 65’s will increase from 461k to 729k • This is an increase of 72% vs a popn increase of 16%

  3. NZIER (2005) NZ Population Projections by Age Cohort(Assuming medium population growth) 400,000 2001 2011 2021 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 0-4 5-9 90+ 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89

  4. Health Spend and GDP • Difficult to find detailed cost estimates of the gap between forecast GDP and forecast demand • Rough calculation – 2.1bn issue from impact of over 65’s alone

  5. Nursing Council / BERL

  6. Economic Model - Porter New Entrants Demand of Population Supply of Nurses Efficiency & Price Substitutes

  7. Questions • What needs to be done to have enough nurses in the medium term? • What are the factors that need to be taken into account for retention of the workforce? • What are the roles that nurses could/should be doing in the future that are not being done now? • What is the role of other professional groups in the space that nurses now occupy?

  8. Addressing the New EntrantsHutt Valley DHB • 1400 graduates, 500 placed by ACE scheme • Hutt Valley Hospital • Normally takes 22 graduates • Only taking 9 in 2013/14 • Largely due to low vacancies, reduced turnover, and relative ease of employing qualified nurses

  9. Long term vs short term • Approach does not address future needs • HVDHB Goals for New Graduates: • Create a continuous and predictable ‘pipeline’ of new talent; • Demonstrate our professional commitment to these nurses; and • Reduces overall nurse workforce costs.

  10. Background Information • A nurses’ wages range from $47,057 (new grad) to $63,528 (Step 5). • Currently the average cost at Hutt is $62,054. • With loading for leave and training cover, this ranges from $61,036 to $75,344 • Health Workforce NZ pays the DHBs $7,200 for each new graduate in a NETP program • There are a number of costs associated with each new graduate employed in the first year, including: • supernumerary (non-productive) time, • study requirement and support and • HWNZ reporting and compliance costs.

  11. Average cost per Nurse FTE

  12. Analysis • The benefits to the organisation include: • In Year One, the cost of a new grad is 80% of the current staff • By replacing nursing vacancies with the 22 new grads every year, the total savings will be $314,776 in year one and cumulative yearly

  13. Risks and Mitigations

  14. Conclusions • We do have looming Nurse workforce challenges • We will need to look at increasing supply of nurses or developing substitutes • There are immediate as well as medium term benefits in taking on graduates, as long as there is active management of the process.

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