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Summary Report of Working Group on Impacts

Summary Report of Working Group on Impacts. Project ABC Science Team Meeting April 5, 2005 UNEP-Tongji Institute, Shanghai. Outline. Issues: what are the most important impacts of ABCs, and the most important research needs related to them? Proposed workshop on impact studies

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Summary Report of Working Group on Impacts

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  1. Summary Report of Working Group on Impacts Project ABC Science Team Meeting April 5, 2005 UNEP-Tongji Institute, Shanghai

  2. Outline • Issues: what are the most important impacts of ABCs, and the most important research needs related to them? • Proposed workshop on impact studies • Integrating capacity building with research

  3. Issues • ABCs have impacts on: • Agriculture • Health • Water • Unmanaged ecosystems • Cross-cutting issues: • Historical analysis vs. projections • Regional coupled models

  4. Agriculture • Highest priority for research supported by Project ABC • Draw on strengths and interests of Project ABC science team: impacts of ABCs on climate, dry deposition, etc. • Impact of ABCs on monsoon (hence, on agriculture) is a new and unique issue • Opportunity to build on team’s experience while entering into new research areas • E.g., collect integrated meteorological/agricultural/ socioeconomic data (precedent: biofuels survey)

  5. Agriculture (continued) • Initial study sites: • Ganges basin • Yangtze basin • Why these? • Much research to build on • Access to data (though some question marks) • Should locate field sites near existing weather stations • Climatic and socioeconomic conditions vary, yet more manageable than entire countries • Because river basins, natural unit for looking at water issues, too

  6. Water • Closely connected to agriculture, but did not discuss in depth in the working group • Growing competition between agriculture and other sectors • Drying due to ABCs intensifies scarcity and thus conflict • How easily can populations/land uses change location, and what are adjustment costs?

  7. Health • Impacts of aerosols on human health are obviously important • But: other groups already working on, though maybe not as much as should • Contributions of Project ABC: • Better emissions inventories for epidemiologists/dispersion modelers to work with • Regional models: provide better estimates of pollution levels than “local” models

  8. Unmanaged ecosystems • Forests, wetlands, grasslands, oceans, … • Potentially large impacts, but not as well understood as in case of agriculture • Products (commercial and subsistence), ecosystem services, tourism, etc. • Especially important for some Project ABC countries (e.g., Maldives) • With some, data collection a challenge • Collecting radiation measurements in forests (though being done at some sites in China)

  9. Historical analysis vs. Projections • Advantages of latter: • More convincing to policy community (more “real”: talking about impacts that have already occurred, vs. speculative ones that might occur in distant future) • Before can forecast, need to validate models against historical data • Roots the agricultural and socioeconomic research in observations instead of assumed parameters and simulation methods

  10. Regional coupled models • Pertinent for impact studies: provide finer spatial resolution • But: newer and not as well tested as global models (though efforts underway) • Project ABC could look at: • How do estimates of impacts vary among models? • What features should models have to make them more useful for impact studies? • E.g., date of onset and length of monsoon

  11. Miscellaneous • Links among issues important: e.g., agriculture and health • If ABCs harm agriculture, then malnutrition is more likely • Biomass burning: fires used for clearing fields • Impacts depend on institutions and policies (restrictions on land use)

  12. Getting started • Workshop later in 2005 • Commission papers from individuals • Review pertinent literature • Investigate issues of data access • Offer suggestions on studies to be done • 8 (?) papers: • Agriculture, water, health: 1 each for China, India • Also papers on oceans, forests

  13. Capacity building • Principle: should not be broadcast or add-on, but rather an integral component of research • Successful models: APN, International START, SANDEE/EEPSEA • Possibilities, in addition to learning that occurs through collaboration: • Short courses (for research team) • Fellowships (S <-> S, N <-> S)

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