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Utilization of the Regional Travel Forecasting EMME/2 Model for the Purposes of Long Range

Utilization of the Regional Travel Forecasting EMME/2 Model for the Purposes of Long Range Transportation Planning. Vladimir Livshits Principal Planner Regional Municipality of Peel. Ontario EMME/2 Users Group Meeting April 8, 2005. Regional Travel Forecast.

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Utilization of the Regional Travel Forecasting EMME/2 Model for the Purposes of Long Range

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  1. Utilization of the Regional Travel Forecasting EMME/2 Model for the Purposes of Long Range Transportation Planning Vladimir Livshits Principal Planner Regional Municipality of Peel Ontario EMME/2 Users Group Meeting April 8, 2005

  2. Regional Travel Forecast Consolidation of Travel Forecasts Main Results: Major Future Travel Patterns, Trip Interchanges and Performance Indicators Modelling Support and Validation for Planning Policies Main Results: Screen Lines and Corridors LOS, Aggregated Performance Indicators for Implemented Policy Scenarios An Input for the OPAs, DCs, Regional Planning Exercises Main Results: Recommended Road Improvements and Rights-of-Way on Regional Roads Comparison with Regional Plans Comparison with Other Studies/Plans/Data Forecast based on the Regional Model Modelling of the regional transportation networks Impact Assessment of the TDM scenarios Sensitivity Testing for the Planning Policies DCs update MTO data • Groups of Scenarios: • Group 1: Base Case Scenarios • Group 2: Auto Occupancy and Alternative Modes Scenarios • Group 3: Transit Mode Split Scenarios • Group 4: Combined Scenarios • Group 5: Peak Hour Spreading Scenarios • Group 6: Land Use Changes Scenarios • Group 7: Travel Time Changes Scenarios • Group 8: Road Improvements Scenarios BATS, WCPS Iterative procedure to determine suggested regional road improvements and ROW requirements for the future years Cap. Plan Mississauga Data Official Plan CATS Impact assessment Implementation of improvements TTMP Future Travel Demand Analysis TTS based Analysis Peel Regional Model Forecast Recommended regional road improvements and ROW requirements Future Passenger Travel Demand Trends and Forecast

  3. I. Consolidation of Travel Forecasts

  4. II. Modelling Support and Validation for Planning Policies

  5. Physical Road Improvements Alone Can’t Alleviate Congestion on Peel’s Arterial Roads Peel Arterial Roads will be Congested Even with All Recommended Improvements

  6. Legend V/C Ratio Higher than 0.9 0.9 or lower Future Regional Network Performance: Capacity Deficiency in Morning Peak Hour on Screen Lines 2001 2011 2021 2031 Base Case: 10 Year Capital Plan Development Charges By-Law

  7. Legend V/C Ratio Higher than 0.9 0.9 or lower Future Regional Network Performance: Morning Peak Hour on Screen Lines (After Recommended Improvements) 2011 2021 2031 Base Case and Recommended Road Improvements

  8. Additional Transit/TDM Options Tested

  9. Congestion level in 2021 with TDM and Transit improvements Implementing Transit/TDM Measures can help offset 10 years of congestion growth! AdditionalTDM Measure

  10. III. Input for the OPAs, DCs, Regional Planning Exercises

  11. Road Improvements Suggested by the Regional Model

  12. Typical ROW Requirements • Above requirements do not include streetscaping or transit needs. • Road widening can be accommodate in narrower ROW, if necessary and in specific circumstances

  13. Constraints to Road Widening and ROW Expansion • Physical Constraints - Constraints due to existing residential, industrial or commercial land uses • Financial Constraints- Expected high cost of acquiring additional ROW • Legal Constraints- Expected legal complications in acquiring ROW

  14. 40m – 50m Hwy 50 Mayfield Winston Churchill Blvd 32m – 36m Bovaird Queen 20m – 30m Derry Britannia Cawthra Queensway Constraints to Additional ROW as Identified by Public Works Areas of Constraint

  15. Regional transportation vision, goals and policies Provincial, regional and municipal road and transit network plans Regional and municipal land use and travel demand forecasts andsurveys’ data Set of recommended improvements and right-of-way for the horizon years No Criteria for substantial change in LOS on regional roads satisfied? Yes Consultations with external stakeholders Peel Region Travel Forecasting Model No Criteria for substantial change in LOS on regional roads satisfied? Changes in v/c on regional roads Yes Travel forecast on regional roads Level of Service Criteria Satisfied? Yes, exclude from the set ofimprovements Feasible set of road improvements and right-of-ways Yes No, includein the set of improvements Non-planning constraints (engineering, financial, legal, administrative) satisfied? No Maximum number of through lanes criteria satisfied? No, excludefrom the set of improvements Yes, include in the set of improvements Set of road improvements from planning exercise Continuity and feasibility analysis from planning perspective

  16. 40m – 50m Hwy 50 Airport Gore Dixie Mississauga Rd Mayfield Winston Churchill Blvd 32m – 36m Bovaird Queen 20m – 30m Steeles Derry Britannia Cawthra Queensway Regional Road Right-Of-Way Requirements Current Regional OP

  17. Winston Churchill Kennedy Queen Gore Hwy 50 Derry Derry Britannia Cawthra Queensway Winston Churchill Proposed amendment to right-of-way for 2031.

  18. 40m – 50m Hwy 50 Airport Gore Dixie Mississauga Rd Mayfield Winston Churchill Blvd 32m – 36m Bovaird Queen 20m – 30m Steeles Derry Britannia Cawthra Queensway Revised Regional Road Right-Of-Way Draft Schedule F Areas with Increased ROW

  19. Recommended Regional Road Improvements Short Term Mayfield Additional Improvements Required Approved Per 10-year Capital Plan Hwy 50 6 lanes 4 lanes 3 lanes 2 lanes 6 lanes 4 lanes Cawthra

  20. Recommended Regional Road Improvements Medium Term Airport Mayfield Mayfield Additional Improvements Required Approved Per DC Bylaw Bovaird Winston Churchil Gore Queen Hwy 50 6 lanes 4 lanes 3 lanes 2 lanes Mavis 6 lanes 4 lanes Derry Britannia Queensway WCB

  21. Recommended Regional Road Improvements Long Term Mayfield Approved Per DC Bylaw (2021) Additional Improvements Required Queen 6 lanes 4 lanes 2 lanes 6 lanes 4 lanes

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