Spatial disparities of system transformation

Spatial disparities of system transformation Maria Csanádi Institute of Economics Hungarian Academy of Sciences

A research project in process • Theoretical point of departure: • The dynamics of transformation based on the Interactive Party-state (IPS) model (in Chinese -- Csanádi, 2008) • Specifics of the dynamics of the Chinese system transformation Goal of the research: • Test the analytical power of the IPS model • Characteristic clusterings or segregation • Potential tensions • Local economic and social characteristics • Conventional spatial distribution of income and development disparities M. Csanádi

Present stage of the research • The theoretical approach of system transformation based on the model • Operationalization of possible concepts of system transformation • First statistical results on the spatial disparities M. Csanádi

Expectations and further steps • Confront results with their economic and social background • Expand the compared development period • Initiate a deep-drilling survey in collaboration with Chinese partners M. Csanádi

The outline • Simplified scatch of the Interactive Party-state (IPS) model • What is system transformation based on the model? • Where does system transformation occur? • How does system transformation occur? • How can system transformation be operationalized? • So far statistical results M. Csanádi

The D1 and D2 lines of the network Overlaping decisions through positional, organizational and activity structure in non-party structure Direct connections Sensitivity Atomization Uni-directional but multi-threaded dependency Multi-threaded interest promotion Inbuilt inequality M. Csanádi

Principles of connection and operation • Principles of operation: D1, D2 • dependencies, • interest promotion and • resourceextraction, allocation politicallymonopolized • Consequences: • from a politicalsub-field • throughitspowerinstrumentspermeating and monopolizingsubfieldsanddefiningitsinequalities • developsinto a networkthat operates as asocial system. M. Csanádi

Structural background of variations • Hierarchical lines (D1) • Interlinking lines (D2) along the party hierarchy, • Discretion over the extraction and allocation of resources along the state hierarchy, • Short-cuts (I3) M. Csanádi

Consequence of differences • Different structures: • the combination of the different distribution of composing elements results in • different distributions of power • Different patterns: • characteristic distribution of elements of the network, • characteristic self-reproduction • characteristic transformation M. Csanádi

What does transformation mean? • The party-state network is retreating as a social system from monopolized sub-spheres, and • The sub-spheres of a new social system are evolving • Retreat may be absolute, or relative to the evolution • Retreat and evolution is pattern-conforming: speed, sequence, conditions Party-state Network Market economy Retreating Evolving M. Csanádi

Where do transformations occur? PC1. Retreat of the net Speed - Gradual Evolution Sequence - Politicaltranformationfirst Conditions – democratic regime, economic crisis M. Csanádi

Where do transformations occur? PC2. Retreat of the net Speed - Gradual Evolution Sequence - Economic transformation first Conditions – authoritarian regime, macroeconomic growth M. Csanádi

Where do transformations occur? PC3. Speed - Abrupt collapse of the net attached to all subfields Conditions – uncertain political outcome, longlasting economic crisis Sequence - Overlaping transformations M. Csanádi

How do they occur? Retreat Emptying of the net Weakening of the net Withdrawal of D1 and D2 Cut-off of D1 and D2 Streamlining feedbacks and interlinking lines M. Csanádi

How do they occur? Evolution • Dual-track pricing, • Allowing the increase of the number of economic units and capital outside the net • Privatized enterprises • Transferred (stripped off) convertible capacity • The increase of the overlapping segment

Constraints on quantification • Factors of transformation in the model: only cut off (privatizations, close-downs) • Chinese statistics (no privatization or close-downs: instead, indirect indicators • Inconsistency in time puts constraints on longitudinal survey: prefecture level 1999–2002 • The inconsistency of data on different levels of aggregation M. Csanádi

Simplifying the model to adaptto constraints Evolution: Number and GOV of Dom. and FF Network: Number and GOV of SOEs, TVEs • Warning!!! drawbacks of indirect data and simplification • The retreat of the net may in fact go on despite stagnating or even growing GOV (both relative to evolution or in absolute terms) M. Csanádi

Where do they occur? Retreat and evolution on national level (number) M. Csanádi

Where do they occur? Retreat and evolution on national level (GOV) M. Csanádi

Signs of retreat and evolution in spaceon provincial level (number, 1999) M. Csanádi

Signs of retreat and evolution in spaceon provincial level (GOV, 1999) M. Csanádi

Speed of the retreat and its dispersion in space (N of prefectures = 100 in 1999 and 2002) Settled differences in time and space

Differences in the speed of retreat and their dispersion (N of prefectures = 100 in 1999 and 2002) Declining tendencies

Speed of the evolution and its dispersion in space (N of prefectures = 100 in 1999 and 2002) Settled differences in time and space

Differences in the speed of evolution and their dispersion (N of prefectures = 100 in 1999 and 2002) Increasing tendencies

Dynamics of transformation and its spatial disparities(N of prefectures=100 in 1999 and 2002) spillover or… retreat collapse

Sectoral dynamics: relative expansion and contraction and its spatial disparities Fiercely expanding land demand Fiercely contracting land demand

Emergence of potential tensions – to be checked in field research • In space due to: • multiplicity at one level • proximity at one level (indent) • similar dynamics clustering at one level • different combination of the type of economic units in the net and evolution • In time due to: • different speed of retreat and evolution • different conditions of retreat and evolution • shifting dynamics (types) in time • different dynamics of industrial-rural transformation (faster, slower) • Among different aggregations • impact of the multiplicity of dynamics on different levels: • further disparities at lower levels of aggregations (Hairong Lai, 2008) • Due to overlap of development and income disparities with dynamics: • spillover, retreat, collapse, fierce expansion, fierce contraction of land demand M. Csanádi

Questions to be answered by fieldworks • How do the above tendencies match with the unmeasurable factors of transformation • What kind of dynamics do these different potential tensions cause in the transformation • The coexistance of which types of dynamics is the most sensitive and de-stabilizing • is there a potential for chain reactions in transformation due to similar or different type • Do conflicts emerge due to different type and speed of transformation among prefectures • Do interactions of different type dynamics speed up or slow down transformation • How does these match with tensions ascribed to income disparities and its spatial distribution M. Csanádi

Too early for policy implications • At this stage what we see is that: • the picture is differenciated in time, in space and in aggregation and in sectors • potential tensions due to different dynamics are as manyfold, • these add to income disparities in case they overlap • Further steps • a longer time-period • deep drilling • We are searching for advises and collaboration in the above issues M. Csanádi

Thank you for your attention M. Csanádi

Spatial disparities of system transformation