APPLICATION OF MODELING TOOLS FOR ENERGY PLANNING IN LITHUANIA

1. 11th MEETING – AER WORKING GROUP “f” 2nd INPRO RMI – MEETING ENERGY NEEDS IN THE PERIOD OF RAW MATERIALS INSUFFICIENCY APPLICATION OF MODELING TOOLS FOR ENERGY PLANNING IN LITHUANIA VACLOVAS MISKINIS CZECH REPUBLIC, LIBLICE, APRIL 14-17, 2009

2. Presentationplan • Introduction; • Specific features of the Lithuanian energy sector; • Methodology of energy planning; • Examples of analysis performed.

3. Area: 65.2 thousand km² (78.87 thousand km²Czech Republic) Population: 3.4 mln. (10.5 mln.Czech Republic) GDP growth: over period 2000-2008–7.3% (4.5% Czech Republic) GDP per capita 2008: 15200 PPS (20900PPS Czech Republic) LITHUANIA Lithuania Latvia Lithuania Russia (Kaliningrad region) Poland Belarus

4. The main research activities of Laboratory • Analysis of macroeconomic development, energy demand forecasting; • Analysis of the energy supply scenarios applying approved optimising modelling tools; • Analysis of the energy sector impact on the environment; • Application of restructuring experience in the Lithuanian energy sector; • Assessment of renewable energy sources development.

5. Presentationplan • Introduction; • Specific features of the Lithuanian energy sector; • Methodology of energy planning; • Examples of analysis performed.

6. Diagram of main fuel and energy flows in 2006, ktoe

7. Installed capacities, 2008

8. Electricity production in Lithuania

9. Structure of electricity production in Lithuania

10. Presentationplan • Introduction; • Specific features of the Lithuanian energy sector; • Methodology of energy planning; • Examples of analysis performed.

11. Modeling framework in the energy sector planning in Lithuania

12. Application of modeling tools for energy planning • Since early 1990s application of econometric model and EFOM-ENV; • WASP-III Plus and WASP-IV; • Application of the simulation MAED model and BALANCE model • MAED+ optimization MESSAGE model; • Methodology of uncertainty + MESSAGE.

13. Cooperation with the IAEA (1) • Implementation of modern energy planning methods in Lithuania: • It has started in mid-ninetiesby invitations of Lithuanian teams to attend Interregional Training Courses in Argonne National Laboratory (USA), Saclay (France), Pitesti (Romania), Trieste (Italy), Zagreb (Croatia), etc.; • Implementation of the ENPEP package, MAED, BALANCE, IMPACT, WASP, MESSAGE, etc.; • Assistancethrough TC projects and useful consultancyby the Agency and energy planning experts from various countries.

14. Cooperation with the IAEA (2) • A set of planning tools – MAED, ENPEPpackage,WASP, BALANCE, MESSAGE – transferred to Lithuanian Energy Institute; • Agency provided assistance through expert missions, fellowship training and dialogueof Agency experts with policy-makersfrom Lithuania; • Publication of Energy supply options for Lithuania. A detailed multi-sector integrated energy demand, supply and environment analysis as the IAEA Technical Documentin 2004; • Publication of Analyses of Energy Supply Options and Security of Energy Supply in the Baltic States as the IAEA Technical Documentin 2007.

15. Main indicators (MAED model) • GDP growth rates; • GDP structure; • Technological indicators in manufacturing; • Number of population and its distribution; • Indicators of living standards; • Mobility of population; • Indicators of passenger and fright transportation; • Market penetration by energy forms; • Indicators of energy intensity.

16. Forecast of the final energy demand

17. Econometric model Vi – economic activity(GDP) Pij – electricity price α(ijl) – income elasticity β(ijl) – price elasticity Cijl – saving potential

18. Main parameters of the model

19. Function and limits of GDP distribution

20. Forecast of the final electricity demand

21. Modelfor Energy Supply System Alternativesand their General EnvironmentalImpacts (MESSAGE) • It is an energy supply model, representing the energy conversion and utilization processes of the energy system and their environmental impacts; • It is an optimization model which from the set of existing and possible new technologies select the optimal in terms of selected criterion mix of technologies; • The mathematical method used in the model is linear programming; • A techno-economic or engineering approach is applied, i.e. the model represents the energy systems by their technological structure, aiming at the optimization of this structure, generally with respect to energy system costs; • It is used for development of medium-term strategies, the planning horizon being in the order of 30-40 years; • It is an energy and environmental model, enabling the user to carry out integrated analysis of the energy sector development and its environmental impacts.

22. Presentationplan • Introduction; • Specific features of the Lithuanian energy sector; • Methodology of energy planning; • Examples of analysis performed.

23. Structure of the energy sector model Final energy demand System of oil supply Oil products System of electricity and heat generation and distribution Oil products Electricity System of gas supply Gas Gas System of other fuel supply Other fuels Heat Electricity import Other fuels

24. Structure of the energy sector model Representation of systems of oil and gas supply systems could be in detailed or aggregated form; The main attention mostly is paid to analysis of scenarios of power system development and all realistic options are examined: Modernization of existing power plants, Decommissioning of obsolete capacities, Construction of new power plants, Modernization of existing heat plants, Electricity and heat transmission and distribution, Implementation of emission reduction technologies.

25. Energy exchange between Baltic countries

26. Energy exchange between Baltic countries and third countries

27. Base case (1R(Aa)) scenario By power plants

28. Base case (1R(Aa)) scenario By fuel type

29. Scenario 6Ra(Aa) By plant type Base case (1R(Aa)) scenario By plant type

30. D45 D34 D16 D05 D47 D51 KTE D52 D39 D35 D38 D53 D54 D36 D19 D17 Silko D48 D57 D03 D49 D28 D59 D29 Inkaro D30 D20 D10 D56 D21 D11 D31 D12 D40 D32 D22 D60 D43 D13 D41 D23 D61 PTE D42 Pergales Model of district heating system in Kaunas

31. Short characteristic of the model • Model describes sources of district heat supply, heat transmission and distribution grid, possible renovation of multifamily houses, changes in fuel prices, heat demand during heating season, environmental and other indicators; • Criteria – min expenses for operation and development; • The main results: optimal mix of heat generation technologies, rational configuration of the transmission grid, fuel balance, requirement of investments, etc.

32. Studies on the energy sector development • National Energy Strategies (approved in 1994, 1999, 2002, 2007) ; • Studies on the power sector development in Lithuania, in Latvia, in the Baltic States, in Poland, in Mongolia, in Serbia and Montenegro, in the Baltic States and Poland, in Sudan and Nigeria; • Studies on various issues of the energy sector development (under contracts with Ministry of Economy, Ministry of Environment, energy companies, etc.); • Strategy of the Kaunas district heating system development; • Participation in programmes of 5th, 6th and 7th Framework, etc.

33. Changes in electricity generation

34. Integration of power systems New NPP

35. THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR YOUR ATTENTION!