Economic Resiliency and Measuring the Risk of Social Unrest

1. Economic Resiliency and Measuring the Risk of Social Unrest Research Proposal Presentation George Koo April 29, 2013 SSCI E-100B Graduate Proseminar Harvard University Extension School

2. Research Proposal • Introduce the Research Questions: • What is the impact of economic resiliency on civil unrest? • What is the impact of economic vulnerability on civil unrest? • What is the risk that civil unrest can occur given the net effect of economic resiliency and vulnerability? • Introduce the Research Proposal: • Develop an understanding of social unrest by considering the use of economic resilience and vulnerability index values as measurable and testable variables in relation to civil unrest. • Proposal: Forecast the Risk of Social Unrest • Projecting Risk and developing risk mitigants

3. Conceptual Definition • Social or Civil Unrest has many dimensions: • Degree of Intensity – Peaceful Protest/Violent Protest/Armed Struggle • Varies by actor • Method of conflict • Stakes at issue • Focus: Interaction between economics on civil unrest • The concept of “Civil Unrest” is defined as the extent to which “individuals in a certain country” exhibit the characteristic of “active (and sometimes, violent) protestations against the country’s governing body in response to financial and economic policies that could be contrary to such individuals’ ability to enjoy peaceful livelihoods” (Pollock III 2012, 11).

4. Definition of Terms Economic Resiliency – an index of economic factors that measure a state’s ability to cope with economic shocks and its ability to recover in a reasonable amount of time. Economic Vulnerability – an index of economic factors that identifies a state’s exposure level to economic shocks.

5. Background • Social unrest is a complex area that involves many different dimensions. • Many different actors can create unrest and conflict. • Peaceful demonstration to a political group vying for control of a state. • The motivations for civil unrest are as complex as the study of human nature and behavior. • It has been associated with economic, social, religious, ethnic, and moral issues. • Scope: Economic conditions/issues that could contribute to Civil Unrest.

6. Research Method • Quantitative Approach • Determination of the economic variables that comprise of economic resilience and vulnerability indices • Macroeconomic stability – GDP, Income, Trade, Unemployment, Inflation, etc. • Microeconomic market efficiency – Trade, Capital Market Development, Credit, Property Rights, etc. • Good governance – Regime Type, System of Justice, Commercial Laws, Voter rights, Market Rules and Regulations • Social development – Health, Education, Infant Mortality, etc. • Determination of Civil Unrest variables • Number of political parties • Number of protests, riots • Number of deaths due to social unrest

7. Models • Statistical Correlation Techniques • Correlation • Hypothesis Testing • Regression Methods • Ordinary Least Squares • Logistic • Negative Binomial • Theory Implications • Social Unrest be a measurable risk based on economic resiliency and vulnerability

8. Limitations of Research Empirical data – availability Variables with limited statistical significance Other confounding variables that could interact Need for control variables (age, education, ethnicity) Internal Biases Internal Validity External Validity Random Measurement Error Systematic Error

9. Bibliography Briguglio, Lino, Gordon Cordina, Nadia Farrugia, and Stephanie Vella. "Economic Vulnerability and Resilience: Concepts and Measurements." Oxford Development Studies 37, no. 3 (September 2009): 229-248. Briguglio, Lino, Gordon Cordina, Stephanie Bugeja, and Nadia Farrugia. "Conceptualizing and Measuring Economic Resilience." Economics Department, University of Malta, 2006. Caruso, Raul, and Friedrich Schneider. "The Socio-Economic Determinants of Terrorism and Political Violence in Western Europe (1994-2007)." European Journal of Political Economy, no. 27 (2011): S37-S49. Chossudovsky, Michel. "Economic Reforms and Social Unrest in Developing Countries." Economic and Political Weekly 32, no. 29 (July 1997): 1786-1788. Curci, Frederico, Sameer Khatiwada, and Steven Tobin. "Market Turbulence, Employment and Social Unrest: Trends and Outlook." World of Work Report, International Instution for Labour Studies 2011, June 20, 2012.

10. Bibliography Krueger, Alan B., and JitkaMleckova. "Education, Poverty and Terrorism: Is There a Causal Connection?" Journal of Economic Perspectives 17, no. 4 (Fall 2003): 119-144. Lum, Thomas. Social Unrest in China. Cornell University ILR School, Washington, DC: Congressional Research Service (CRS) Reports and Issue Briefs, 2006. Midtgard, Trude. "Economic Crises, IMF Programs, and Social Unrest, 1980-2006." Department of Sociology and Political Science, Norwegian Univerity of Science and Technology, n.d. Miguel, Edward, ShankerSatyanath, and Ernest Sergenti. "Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict: An Instrumental Variables Approach." Journal of Political Economy (The University of Chicago Press) 112, no. 4 (August 2004): 725-753.

11. Bibliography Parvin, Manoucher. "Economic Determinants of Political Unrest: An Econometric Approach." Journal of Conflict Resolution 17 (June 1973): 271-296. Pastor, Jr., Manuel. "Economic Inequality, Latino Poverty, and the Civil Unrest in Los Angeles." Economic Development Quarterly 9 (1995): 238-252. Piza, Eric. Using Poisson and Negative Binomial Regression Models to Measure the Influence of Risk on Crime Incident Counts. Newark, NJ: Rutgers Center on Public Security, 2012. Pollock III, Philip H. The Essentials of Political Analysis. Washington, DC: CQ Press, 2012. Posner, Eric. "Four Economic Perspectives on American Labor Law and the Problem of Social Conflict." Journal of Institutional and Theoretical Economics (MohnSiebeck GmbH & Co. KG) 159, no. 1 (March 2003): 101-116.