The role of evaluation in transitions from evaluation to valuing progress

1. The role of evaluation in transitionsfrom evaluation to valuing progress Dr. Derk Loorbach 10-02-2012

2. The evaluation challenge of transitions • Sustainable development requires non-linear, unpredictable, unmanageable change • Requires insight in transitional dynamics and ways to stimulate these • Policy evaluation is perhaps useless, transitions require normative forward-looking evaluation Dutch Research Institute For Transitions

3. Transitions fundamental change of structure, culture and practices in a societal (sub)system culture:collective set of values, norms, perspectives (shared orientation), paradigms structure:physical infrastructure, economic infrastructure, institutions, rules, regulations, collective routines practices:behaviour, operation, implementation Shared discourse and language for multi-actor learning and innovation processes Dutch Research Institute For Transitions

4. Transition levels Macro-level: landscape autonomous trends, paradigms, slow changes Meso-level: regime Dominant structure, culture and practices Micro-level: niches innovative ideas, projects, technologies, niche actors Based on Geels and Kemp, 2001 Dutch Research Institute For Transitions

5. Sustainable society? construction water finance mobility waste energy health care Transition phases stabilisation acceleration take-off predevelopment Based on Rotmans et al, 2001 Dutch Research Institute For Transitions

6. Source: Stockholm Resilience Center and DRIFT, 2010 Dutch Research Institute For Transitions

7. Fundamental issues • Something new (innovation) is something else than something improved • Prediction is impossible, but insight is necessary • Sustainability (breakthroughs) come from multiple domains  It is more about impact and process than outcome and output Dutch Research Institute For Transitions

8. Problem structuring, establishment of the transition arena and envisioning Developing images coalitions and transition-agendas Monitoring, evaluating and learning Mobilizing actors and executing projects and experiments Transition management Dutch Research Institute For Transitions

9. Role of evaluation and monitoring • Support learning about the transition • Integrated part of the governance cycle (4-5yrs) • So far mainly experimentally applied at program level • Focus on patterns, dyanmics, pathways, upscaling and framing Dutch Research Institute For Transitions

10. Rotterdam Climate Initiativeparticipatory monitoring • RCI program: 50% CO2 reduction in 2025 • 80 million budget • Dozens of projects • Reflection role Drift • Participatory TM based evaluation • Stepwise transitioning of the program • Discussing goals, strategy and actions Dutch Research Institute For Transitions

11. Goals transitionmonitoring • Awareness (What are we doing?) • Reflection (are we doing the right thing?) • Reorientation (which vision and goals?) • Strategy development Dutch Research Institute For Transitions

12. Framework Dutch Research Institute For Transitions

13. From goals to pathways Dutch Research Institute For Transitions

14. Dutch Research Institute For Transitions

15. Transition ‘evaluation’ • Using the transition perspective to identify societal dynamics and policy-society interaction • Tool to stuimulate collective ‘framing’ and ‘discourse’ • Intsrument to ‘transitionize’ existing policy • Instrument to ‘measure’ transition and impact of transition governance? Dutch Research Institute For Transitions

16. Key challenges/questions • Multiple influences, interaction and interventions that cannot be quantified or correlated • How to map patterns and impacts in a way that they provide a basis for governance • What can transition monitoring learn from environmental evaluation • Does transition evaluation imply a transition in evaluation? Dutch Research Institute For Transitions