1 / 59

Constitutional Reform in Hong Kong

Constitutional Reform in Hong Kong . ROUND THREE. HONG KONG TRANSITION PROJECT June 2013. Survey Objectives:. Establish baselines before next round on: Views on current governance system Public opinion on reform options

shira
Download Presentation

Constitutional Reform in Hong Kong

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Constitutional Reform in Hong Kong ROUND THREE HONG KONG TRANSITION PROJECT June 2013

  2. Survey Objectives: • Establish baselines before next round on: • Views on current governance system • Public opinion on reform options • Views by party, identity, interests (occupation, ownership) and demographics (age, sex, education, income, etc) Part of Hong Kong Transition Project’s long term study of public policy and political development since 1982

  3. January 2013 • 920 permanent residents randomly contacted by telephone • +/- 3 points range of error at 95% confidence interval • Research conducted by Hong Kong Transition Project, supported by a grant from the Community Development Initiative

  4. 3 FUNDAMENTAL SHIFTS→from circumstances of Rounds 1 (2005) & 2 (2010) • Inter-generational Transfer Shift (1) • From Old > Young: Education/Healthcare • To Young> Old: Retirement/Geriatric care • Identity Shift (2) as part of Generational Shift (3) • From Hong Kong person > Chinese/Chinese Hong Konger • From Chinese = Patriotic Communist > Chinese = National/Cultural Patriot • 1st Gen since 1841 to grow up in Hong Kong, China—with no effective memory of foreign rule

  5. Generational Shift → • 1 July 2013 marks 16 years from 1997 handover • 1 July 2014 (Occupy Central deadline for “genuine democracy” reforms) = 17 years • 2017 Chief Executive election = 20 years • Few under age 30 remember pre-1997 circumstances as lived experience. It is “history” to them. • Lived experience of this generation is: Bearing burden of the past, not enjoying its legacy nor believing in steady progress because they have seen it happen

  6. SOURCE: Carine Lai, Louisa Mitchell, Michael DeGolyer, The Changing Faces of Hong Kong: “A Graphical Summary of Women’s Status, 1991-2011” (Feb 2013) The Women’s Foundation/Civic Exchange http://www.civic-exchange.org/wp/201302gender_en/ p.17 By 2031, % of population over 60 will rise from 13% in 2011 to 26%+

  7. Low birthrate, high aging rate crisis • Shifting burden of care is burdening families in new ways • New forms of stress/unequal forms of stress on families, caregivers and rising generation. No parents = no stress. No children = not enough help. High stress on fewer children. • “Family friendly” policy does not recognize “family” is no longer parents with children; it is children with parents • Intervening variable on satisfaction and fairness of policy making questions

  8. Average Adjusted income for Ages 20-29, Census and By-census (1991, 1996, 2001, 2006, 2011)

  9. Approximately what percentage of your personal income do you contribute to your parents? BY Generation

  10. Personal income to parents by Monthly Family Income

  11. Effect of SHIFTS on IDENTITY

  12. First Post-1997/Post-1841 Generation < 30 year olds were <13 in 1997. Too young to understand colonial Hong Kong. First time over 60s and under 30s equal in a survey

  13. National Education Effect?“How would you describe yourself” by Occupation No student chose “Chinese” ID

  14. Changes in identity

  15. Birthplace Hong Kong for Hong Kong born, but means something different now

  16. ID by Generation

  17. Which of these do you consider the most important to you personally to see protected and promoted?

  18. Most important to promote & protect BY Generation

  19. How does the celebration of 1st October National Day make you feel?

  20. National Day feelings BY ID

  21. Effect of SHIFTS on Political ID

  22. Which parties protect/represent best by Age 60:40 pro-democracy/pro-establishment split among voters NOW is not sustained among teenagers

  23. For the Establishment • Demographics are running against the establishment parties • Stalling reform does not improve their position • Youth are stressed and highly volatile • Demographics and economics are raising that stress and volatility UNLESS action is taken to address its sources

  24. Satisfaction with performance of CY Leung by Generational group

  25. How much do you believe CY Leung has:

  26. How much do you believe Leung has: Protected HK’s interest in national matters BY Generation

  27. How much do you believe Leung: Will implement a fair system of nomination and direct election for CE in 2017 BY Generation

  28. How much do you trust Chief Executive Leung to handle relations with:

  29. How much do you trust CE Leung to handle relations with: People like yourself BY Generation

  30. How much do you trust CE Leung to handle relations with: People like yourself BY Parental support paid

  31. Are you currently worried or not about these specific aspects affecting you, your family or Hong Kong? (Jan 2013)

  32. In your view, what is the most urgent issue that should be addressed by the Chief Executive?

  33. Effect of Shifts on Reform

  34. System Reform . . . • Is more than economics and elections • Political-Economic reform must achieve: • Effective shareholder input, • More widely owned decisions, • Efficient implementation of decisions, • followed by scientific evaluation and independent monitoring, • subject to review and public feedback

  35. Reform Principles & Options • For more effective input • Legitimating outcomes • Effectuating implementation • Monitoring governance

  36. Support/oppose directly electing the Chief Executive (Trend chart)

  37. Support/Oppose direct election of all Legco seats (10 Year Trend)

  38. Summary Table of Recoded support or opposition on reform options

  39. Would you support/oppose: Keep the CE Election Committee at 1200 members as present and make it the nominating committee for candidates for direct elections in 2017?

  40. Would you support/oppose: Reform FCs by eliminating corporate voting and equalizing, as much as possible, the number of voters in each constituency?

  41. Would you support/oppose: Abolish FCs for Legco but keep them for the CE Nominating Committee

  42. Would you support/oppose the following: Abolish FCs completely in all forms?

  43. Do you currently support or oppose: Abolishing all FCs, both traditional and new DC FC seats

  44. Do you currently support or oppose: Abolishing only the traditional small circle 30 FC seats

  45. Do you currently support/oppose: Replacing the 30 small circle FC seats with 30 more seats elected by everyone like the 5 new DC seats

  46. Do you currently support/oppose: Abolishing the split voting system in Legco which requires majority votes in both the FCs and GCs for a bill or amendment to pass

  47. If all FC seats are directly geographic elected, would you support or oppose: A minimum required percentage of votes to get a seat, of say, 10%, like in Germany?

  48. Would you support/oppose: CE candidates be allowed to be members of a party?

  49. Which party represents best by Support/oppose CE candidates allowed to be members of a party NO DIFFERENCE BY PARTY

  50. Which party represents best by How much do you believe CY Leung: Will implement a fair system of nomination and direct election for CE in 2017

More Related