140 likes | 421 Views
The Ocean’s Role in Climate Change. Responding to the Kyoto Protocol Climate Change Action Fund (CCAF) Initiatives. Reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Reduce scientific uncertainties, oceans are a major factor. Precautions where appropriate. Assess adaptation strategies.
E N D
Responding to the Kyoto ProtocolClimate Change Action Fund (CCAF) Initiatives • Reduce greenhouse gas emissions. • Reduce scientific uncertainties, oceans are a major factor. • Precautions where appropriate. • Assess adaptation strategies.
Global Warming Has Begun • 10 warmest years within the last 160 years have just recently occurred. • 1997 used to be the warmest over this timeframe, 1998 was significantly warmer. • losses from weather related disasters are escalating, to $75 billion (US) in 1998. • IPCC suggests “a discernable human influence on global climate”.
Key Issues • Impacts of climate change on ecosystems and people are likely to be severe • Oceans are a critical part of the climate system (ocean circulation, greenhouse gases) • Variations in ocean climate affect all Canadians • The oceans role in the climate system must be better monitored and understood to reduce uncertainties in climate forecasts
Climate Change Impacts • Marine Environment • sea levels, sea ice • ocean temperature • circulation, etc. Sea Ice • fisheries species and distributions Fresh Water Species • coastal communities Icebergs Fish Limit ForestFires Groundfish • Land Environment Drought • increased drought, floods, forest fires Invertebrates New Species Lake Levels Storms • changed hydrology affecting energy, transportation, tourism
Oceans are the Flywheel of the Climate System • Oceans cover 71% of the Earth’s surface. • The oceans are the system’s flywheel, retaining and moving vast amounts of heat. OCEAN ATMOSPHERE SPACE CO2 • Oceans remove up to 1/3 of the CO2 produced by burning fossil fuels Heat • Oceans, atmosphere, land and snow & ice form the climate system. 71% of Earth’s Surface
El Niño shows how Ocean Changes affect Canadian Climate • Map shows 1997/98 fully developed El Niño. • Changes are not uniform across Canada. • El Niño results in: • warmer coastal BC waters. • cooler north Atlantic waters. • deflected jet stream, which in turn affects weather all across Canada. Average Jet Stream El Niño Year Jet Stream
Projected Effect of Global Warming on Sockeye Salmon • Scenario suggests that ocean habitat of sockeye may not even include any of the Pacific Ocean. • Lowest red line is the 1995 southern limit of sockeye salmon. • Highest red line shows the projected southern limit of sockeye salmon by 2094 when greenhouse gases will have more than doubled.
Sudden Climate Shifts • The ocean conveyor presently heats the North Atlantic. • Ice cores reveal past rapid temperature shifts. • Must reduce scientific uncertainties of climate “surprises”, e.g. ocean conveyor change or shutdown.
Ocean ClimateWe are not doing enough • Inadequate Monitoring • sections (sampling lines) • stations (sampling points) • sea level • Minimal Research Program • circulation (heat engine) • CO2 (oceanic uptake) • impacts assessment (aquatic resources)
Benefits of Ocean Monitoring and Climate Forecasts • Economic impacts: Seasonal Forecasting • energy consumers, mariners, farmers • Economic decisions: Infrastructure Design • buildings, roads, bridges (e.g. Confederation Bridge design for climate change), coastal facilities • Economic Decisions: Adaptation Strategies • alternative resource development (fishers, foresters, farmers) • Health and Safety of Canadians • health risk assessment (disease) • flood and drought seasonal predictions
National Implementation StrategyOceans Component • enhanced ocean observations • refine ocean components of coupled ocean/atmosphere circulation models • strengthen regional climate modeling • develop operational ocean forecasts • undertake impact studies - fisheries, etc.
Summary • Living marine resources will be heavily impacted by climate change. • Improved climate prediction will be impossible without better: • ocean measurements and characterization. • understanding ocean/atmosphere interactions and feedbacks. • Improved climate prediction is essential to support policy decisions. • Ocean climate needed as part of a National Implementation Strategy Projected Summer Sockeye Salmon Distribution by 2060 2xCO2 Normal