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The Ocean’s Role in Climate Change

The Ocean’s Role in Climate Change. Responding to the Kyoto Protocol Climate Change Action Fund (CCAF) Initiatives. Reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Reduce scientific uncertainties, oceans are a major factor. Precautions where appropriate. Assess adaptation strategies.

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The Ocean’s Role in Climate Change

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  1. The Ocean’s Role in Climate Change

  2. Responding to the Kyoto ProtocolClimate Change Action Fund (CCAF) Initiatives • Reduce greenhouse gas emissions. • Reduce scientific uncertainties, oceans are a major factor. • Precautions where appropriate. • Assess adaptation strategies.

  3. Global Warming Has Begun • 10 warmest years within the last 160 years have just recently occurred. • 1997 used to be the warmest over this timeframe, 1998 was significantly warmer. • losses from weather related disasters are escalating, to $75 billion (US) in 1998. • IPCC suggests “a discernable human influence on global climate”.

  4. Key Issues • Impacts of climate change on ecosystems and people are likely to be severe • Oceans are a critical part of the climate system (ocean circulation, greenhouse gases) • Variations in ocean climate affect all Canadians • The oceans role in the climate system must be better monitored and understood to reduce uncertainties in climate forecasts

  5. Climate Change Impacts • Marine Environment • sea levels, sea ice • ocean temperature • circulation, etc. Sea Ice • fisheries species and distributions Fresh Water Species • coastal communities Icebergs Fish Limit ForestFires Groundfish • Land Environment Drought • increased drought, floods, forest fires Invertebrates New Species Lake Levels Storms • changed hydrology affecting energy, transportation, tourism

  6. Oceans are the Flywheel of the Climate System • Oceans cover 71% of the Earth’s surface. • The oceans are the system’s flywheel, retaining and moving vast amounts of heat. OCEAN ATMOSPHERE SPACE CO2 • Oceans remove up to 1/3 of the CO2 produced by burning fossil fuels Heat • Oceans, atmosphere, land and snow & ice form the climate system. 71% of Earth’s Surface

  7. El Niño shows how Ocean Changes affect Canadian Climate • Map shows 1997/98 fully developed El Niño. • Changes are not uniform across Canada. • El Niño results in: • warmer coastal BC waters. • cooler north Atlantic waters. • deflected jet stream, which in turn affects weather all across Canada. Average Jet Stream El Niño Year Jet Stream

  8. Projected Effect of Global Warming on Sockeye Salmon • Scenario suggests that ocean habitat of sockeye may not even include any of the Pacific Ocean. • Lowest red line is the 1995 southern limit of sockeye salmon. • Highest red line shows the projected southern limit of sockeye salmon by 2094 when greenhouse gases will have more than doubled.

  9. Sudden Climate Shifts • The ocean conveyor presently heats the North Atlantic. • Ice cores reveal past rapid temperature shifts. • Must reduce scientific uncertainties of climate “surprises”, e.g. ocean conveyor change or shutdown.

  10. Ocean ClimateWe are not doing enough • Inadequate Monitoring • sections (sampling lines) • stations (sampling points) • sea level • Minimal Research Program • circulation (heat engine) • CO2 (oceanic uptake) • impacts assessment (aquatic resources)

  11. Benefits of Ocean Monitoring and Climate Forecasts • Economic impacts: Seasonal Forecasting • energy consumers, mariners, farmers • Economic decisions: Infrastructure Design • buildings, roads, bridges (e.g. Confederation Bridge design for climate change), coastal facilities • Economic Decisions: Adaptation Strategies • alternative resource development (fishers, foresters, farmers) • Health and Safety of Canadians • health risk assessment (disease) • flood and drought seasonal predictions

  12. National Implementation StrategyOceans Component • enhanced ocean observations • refine ocean components of coupled ocean/atmosphere circulation models • strengthen regional climate modeling • develop operational ocean forecasts • undertake impact studies - fisheries, etc.

  13. Summary • Living marine resources will be heavily impacted by climate change. • Improved climate prediction will be impossible without better: • ocean measurements and characterization. • understanding ocean/atmosphere interactions and feedbacks. • Improved climate prediction is essential to support policy decisions. • Ocean climate needed as part of a National Implementation Strategy Projected Summer Sockeye Salmon Distribution by 2060 2xCO2 Normal

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