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Crop Market Outlook, Farm Income, Land Values, and the Farm Bill

Gain insights on crop market trends, farm income projections, land values, and analysis of the Farm Bill's impact on agriculture. Explore the latest data on corn and soybean supplies, yields, global production, export sales, and future market projections.

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Crop Market Outlook, Farm Income, Land Values, and the Farm Bill

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  1. Crop Market Outlook, Farm Income, Land Values, and the Farm Bill Wyffels Post Harvest Meeting Emmetsburg, Iowa Nov. 20, 2013 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911

  2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use Source: USDA-WAOB

  3. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use Source: USDA-WAOB

  4. Source: USDA-NASS

  5. Projected Corn Yields Top: 2013 Projected Yield Bottom: Change from last month Units: Bushels/acre Source: USDA-NASS

  6. Early Reports on Corn Yields Source: AgWeb.com

  7. Projected Soybean Yields Top: 2013 Projected Yield Bottom: Change from last month Units: Bushels/acre Source: USDA-NASS

  8. Early Reports on Soybean Yields Source: AgWeb.com

  9. World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB

  10. World Soybean Production Source: USDA-WAOB

  11. U.S. Meat Production & Prices Source: USDA-WAOB

  12. Corn Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

  13. Corn Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

  14. Soybean Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

  15. Soy Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

  16. Corn Grind for Ethanol

  17. Source: DOE-EIA, Annual Energy Outlook

  18. Current Corn Futures 4.36 4.23 4.07 Source: CME Group, 11/15/2013

  19. Current Soybean Futures 12.14 10.92 10.75 Source: CME Group, 11/15/2013

  20. Corn Prices vs. Costs Per Bushel Cost calculated as Per Acre Cost from ISU Extension divided by Expected Yield per Acre Sources: USDA-NASS for Prices, Duffy for Costs

  21. Corn Prices vs. Costs Per Bushel Cost calculated as Per Acre Cost from ISU Extension divided by Actual Yield per Acre Sources: USDA-NASS for Prices, Duffy for Costs

  22. Soybean Prices vs. Costs Per Bushel Cost calculated as Per Acre Cost from ISU Extension divided by Expected Yield per Acre Sources: USDA-NASS for Prices, Duffy for Costs

  23. Soybean Prices vs. Costs Per Bushel Cost calculated as Per Acre Cost from ISU Extension divided by Actual Yield per Acre Sources: USDA-NASS for Prices, Duffy for Costs

  24. Crop Acreage Source: USDA-NASS

  25. Crop Shifts Source: USDA-NASS

  26. Thoughts for 2014 and Beyond • Supply/demand concerns • Corn demand rebounding? Yes, so far, so good • Acreage allocation for 2014: Where do the extra corn acres go? • Markets favoring soybeans in the short term and corn longer term

  27. Iowa Land Values Source: Mike Duffy, ISU

  28. Iowa Land Values – Log Scale Source: Mike Duffy, ISU

  29. Land Values and Income Source: Mike Duffy, ISU

  30. Land Values and Income Source: Mike Duffy, ISU

  31. Farm Bill Titles Commodities IX. Energy Conservation X. Hort. & Organic Ag. Trade XI. Livestock Nutrition XII. Crop Insurance Credit XIII. Commodity Futures Rural Development XIV. Miscellaneous Research XV. Trade & Taxes Forestry

  32. Ideas on the Next Farm Bill • Let’s look at the common features from the House and Senate bills • Both versions of the farm bill eliminate direct payments, countercyclical payments, ACRE, and SURE • The marketing loan program would continue • Livestock disaster programs would be reestablished

  33. Reference Prices Senate: 55% of 5-yr Olympic average MYA price House: Set by law Corn $3.70 Wheat $5.50 Soybean $8.40

  34. ARC or RLC instead of ACRE Revenue-based support program Revenues based on 5-year Olympic averages for yields and prices Yields and prices have cups (T-yields and reference prices)

  35. AMP or PLC instead of CCP Price-based support program Reference prices establish targets Works like CCP Payment rate = Max(0, Reference price – Max(MYA price, Loan rate))

  36. Dairy • Dairy Producer Margin Protection Program • Voluntary margin coverage, with the opportunity for supplemental coverage • Dairy Market Stabilization Program • Managed supplies when margins fall

  37. SCO Examples from Last Year’s Bills Source: Congressional Research Service

  38. World Corn Markets Source: USDA

  39. Arable Land

  40. Thank you for your time!Any questions?My web site:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/~chart/Iowa Farm Outlook:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/Ag Decision Maker:http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/

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