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2005 OBP Biennial Peer Review

2005 OBP Biennial Peer Review. Platform Analysis Overview Bob Wallace, NREL Integrated Biorefinery Project Date: November 16, 2005. Overview. Integrated Biorefinery Analysis Objective.

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2005 OBP Biennial Peer Review

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  1. 2005 OBP Biennial Peer Review Platform Analysis Overview Bob Wallace, NREL Integrated Biorefinery Project Date: November 16, 2005

  2. Overview Integrated Biorefinery Analysis Objective • Provide a clear path forward for research and analysis by identifying and overcoming the technical, R&D, and market barriers towards the commercialization of a bioindustry. Partners Budget • National Laboratory Partners • NREL (lead) • ORNL • PNNL • INL • ANL • Subcontracts • Bioindustry Transition Modeling /The Peterson Group • Back-casting Ethanol industry TBD • Biorefine / John Marano

  3. Integrated Biorefinery Analysis Strategic Analysis • Other Studies: • Emerging Technologies • RBAEF • Biorefine • Market, Risk, Policy Life Cycle Assessment Platforms Analysis Feedstocks Biochemical Thermochemical Products Tools & Methods Development R&D Platforms

  4. Integrated Biorefinery Analysis Strategic Analysis • Other Studies: • Emerging Technologies • RBAEF • Biorefine • Market, Risk, Policy Life Cycle Assessment Integrated Biorefinery Analysis Platforms Analysis Feedstocks Biochemical Thermochemical Products Tools & Methods Development R&D Platforms

  5. Integrated Biorefinery Analysis Strategic Analysis Bioindustry Analysis Integrated Biorefinery Platform • Other Studies: • Emerging Technologies • RBAEF • Biorefine • Market, Risk, Policy Life Cycle Assessment Integrated Biorefinery Analysis Platforms Analysis Feedstocks Biochemical Thermochemical Products Tools & Methods Development R&D Platforms

  6. Working Together Information and programmatic direction are interlinked at NREL and in the NBC. Program Direction Strategic Analysis Platform Analysis R&D

  7. Working Together Information and programmatic direction are interlinked at NREL and in the NBC. Program Direction Strategic Analysis Platform Analysis R&D

  8. Working Together Information and programmatic direction are interlinked at NREL and in the NBC. Program Direction Strategic Analysis Platform Analysis R&D Strategic analysis drives the R&D through Platform Analysis and in turn, Platform Analysis drives Program Direction through Strategic Analysis.

  9. Strategy and Pathways – Intermediate to Long Term

  10. Strategy and Pathways – Intermediate to Long Term Linkage to existing biorefineries

  11. Strategy and Pathways – Intermediate to Long Term Linkage to existing biorefineries 1st Generation Biorefineries

  12. Strategy and Pathways – Intermediate to Long Term Linkage to existing biorefineries 1st Generation Biorefineries Mature vision of biorefineries

  13. Targets Integrated Biorefinery Platform Targets • Biorefinery Modeling (Task 1.1) • Estimated Completion Date: June, 2006 • Individual models nearing completion • Back Casting current Dry Mill Industry (Task 1.2) • Completion Date: September, 2006 • Subcontract will be in place by January, 2006 • Bioindustry Transition Modeling (Task 2) • Estimated Completion Date: December, 2007 • Subcontract will be in place by December, 2005

  14. Bioindustry Transition Model Inputs from Multiple labs across all R&D and Analysis platforms

  15. Bioindustry Transition Model Inputs from Multiple labs across all R&D and Analysis platforms Market driven model with components analyzing distribution, end use and oil industry drivers

  16. Bioindustry Transition Model Inputs from Multiple labs across all R&D and Analysis platforms Market driven model with components analyzing distribution, end use and oil industry drivers Prototype model completed for RBAEF project using STELLA Dynamic Modeling Software

  17. Validating The Model biomass program Building the Future by Investigating the Past ‘Back-cast’ the historical growth of the existing corn ethanol industry to find the major contributing factors to it’s successful development Use real data from the current ethanol industry to build the assumptions for the future Opportunity to refine our understanding of investor behavior Task 1.2

  18. Feedstock Logistics biomass program Feedstock Logistics INL and ORNL developed strategies for emerging large-scale feedstock collection and delivery infrastructure Utilizes outputs from IBSAL and POLYSIS Sophisticated modeling of an evolving feedstock collection and distribution system that builds off existing infrastructure OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORY U. S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY

  19. biomass program Transitional Applications for Corn 1st Generation Biorefineries Dry Mill evolution through technology innovation and process integration Identify cost of introduction Task 1.1 Interim Milestone completed March, 2005

  20. Lignocellulose in a Corn Ethanol Plant Lignocellulosic Biorefineries Transition to lignocellulose for ethanol and fuels production Multiple feedstock collection and delivery infrastructure Production of biofuels, CHP Selective Thermal Processing leading to Consolidated Bioprocessing

  21. Fuel Distribution and Use biomass program Liquid Transportation-Fuels Market Penetration Vehicle fleet turnover dynamics Ethanol market penetration effects on flexible vehicle demand Ethanol distribution infrastructure

  22. The Oil Industry biomass program What can we learn from the current transportation fuels industry? Effect of constrained gasoline production capacity due to the lack of new refinery capacity over the past thirty years 20 yr oil price projections based on U.S. DOE EIA forecasts Relationships between cost of crude oil and cost of gasoline Hubbert’s Peak effect

  23. Modeling Platform Dynamic Systems Modeling • Input from all Platform Analysis areas & Industry • Prototype created in RBAEF Project • User Friendly • STELLA by ISEE Systems • Construct/Simulate/Communicate

  24. Future Work • Biorefinery Modeling will be competed in FY06 • Back-Casting the current ethanol will be completed in FY06 • Bioindustry Transition Model (BTM) will be completed near end of FY07 • The following (BTM) tasks should be completed by the end of FY06 • Fuel and End Use (5 & 6) • Back-casting Current industry (1) • Feedstock Supply Infrastructure (2) The Integrated Biorefinery Platform Bioindustry Transition Modeling

  25. biomass program Summary • Multiple DOE Laboratories involved in Project • Consolidates outputs from Sugar, Thermochemical, Feedstocks and Products platform analyses into a market driven decision making model • Providing the vision to a fully developed bio-liquid transportation fuels industry. • Industry Driven • Gov’t Support • Academia • Working Together

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