1 / 8

Introduction to the Workshop

Introduction to the Workshop. Paul Schultz. Goals. Survey and discuss progress toward the mandate of communicating uncertainty in weather forecasts OS&T asks ISST: Is probabilistic forecast grid preparation good use of forecaster time? What are the best WFO practices in DS today? Tomorrow?

sitara
Download Presentation

Introduction to the Workshop

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Introduction to the Workshop Paul Schultz

  2. Goals • Survey and discuss progress toward the mandate of communicating uncertainty in weather forecasts • OS&T asks ISST: • Is probabilistic forecast grid preparation good use of forecaster time? • What are the best WFO practices in DS today? Tomorrow? • GSD asks ISST: • What does your workstation need to do?

  3. Premise Representing uncertainty in weather forecasts takes three forms: Probabilities, alternative scenarios, and DS by the forecaster

  4. Probabilities • First workshop focused on probabilistic forecast production • Offered, scrapped, and developed a conceptual forecast process • Prototyped some tools on ALPS • Worked through two cases • Initiated PFP • This workshop we’ll show you a lot of that without the hands-on

  5. Alternative scenarios • Examples: SREF, NAEFS • New NWP products in the works • Main public sector drivers are aviation and hydrology • Users looking for effects of weather uncertainty in the context of their DSS • Private sector: install another server at MDL, they’ll download it all, we’ll never hear a word • Directly useful in WFO ops? • Absolutely (Lothar case)

  6. Stats from the Lothar storm • 130 mph gusts in Brittany; 105 mph in Paris; 150 mph in Zurich • Along with smaller “Martin” storm, 140 dead, 88 in France alone • 4% of French forests destroyed • 2 million people without electricity • Road, air, train traffic disrupted for days • 5 billion Euro insured loss; ~20 billion total

  7. Lothar storm case

  8. Decision support • Location-specific • Pablo has hurricanes, Brad has snowstorms, they do different DS tasks • User-specific • BOU’s airport snow probabilities, SLC’s ski resort product, those are different products • Themes?

More Related