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Carbon-constrained markets – business risks and opportunities through sustainable energy.

Carbon-constrained markets – business risks and opportunities through sustainable energy. Prof Ray Wills Director and Partner Duda&Wills Chief Adviser Sustainable Energy Association of Australia Adjunct Professor The University of Western Australia. Adoption of technology.

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Carbon-constrained markets – business risks and opportunities through sustainable energy.

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  1. Carbon-constrained markets – business risks and opportunities through sustainable energy. Prof Ray Wills Director and Partner Duda&Wills Chief Adviser Sustainable Energy Association of Australia Adjunct Professor The University of Western Australia

  2. Adoption of technology • The natural turnover and retirement of appliances, buildings and vehicles can bring about a modest penetration of sustainable energy in the next ten years. • However, adoption of new technology is often not just ‘natural’ • The transition to sustainable energy, like many new technology shifts, will be more rapid with changes favoured by: • policy measures and regulation; • consumer sentiment; • pricing advantage.

  3. Roger’s diffusion curve

  4. Technology adoption rates – US • Will electric cars be dishwashers or VCRs? (Will there ever be any more dishwashers??) NY Times

  5. Technology adoption rates - vehicles Zoepf 2011

  6. Technology adoption rates - vehicles Zoepf 2011

  7. Technology adoption - manufacturers Zoepf 2011

  8. Technology adoption rates • Can historic deployment rates be used to describe future technologies? Expect some similarities – just faster! • Small-scale deployment for approximately five years- exponential growth and an inflection point ten or more years after first application • Is there an opportunity for disruptive technology entry? • Beginnings of disruptive innovation may be in market innovations, • Vehicle ownership model (eg Better Place) could rapidly change the how and what is purchased • Roof top solar – companies may own the panels on your roof

  9. Technology adoption rates • Marked decrease in developmental lag • Innovation/development of new products • Supply side capabilities • Market competition • Growing consumer expectations • Higher level of communication between consumers - blogspace • Fleet/building/operations managers – and CFOs • Regulation • Energy security

  10. Trends in car prices and CO2 2002-2010 How clean are Europe’s cars?

  11. Wake up and smell the roses • Buggy whips -> combustion engine -> EVs? • (Electric) typewriter -> word processor -> PC • PC -> desktop -> laptop -> tablet • Landline -> mobile -> smartphone • Record shops Vinyl -> CD -> (Apple Store) • Book Shops Boutique -> mega -> (Amazon) • Retail shopping Boutique-> chain/mega -> Internet • Energy -> chopping wood -> coal -> solar

  12. Global electricity investment growth

  13. Global renewables

  14. Renewable energy growth Data IEA

  15. Global renewables 2013? Data UNEP

  16. Global electricity …

  17. Global electricity growth - Europe

  18. Australian renewables 2011… • The transformation of Australia’s energy mix has begun – in 2011 new electricity generation construction 25% solar, 31% gas and 33% wind. • Coal-fired power currently 75% of Australia’s total generation - in 2011 only 14% of new investment was coal. • This is still behind the average world-wide investment in renewable energy – China’s economy 8 times larger than Australia, investment in renewables over 20 times larger!

  19. Australian electricity … Data ABARES

  20. Australian electricity consumption 2012…

  21. Australian electricity consumption 2012… Data AEMO

  22. Electricity market projections – WA

  23. Solar on Australian homes

  24. Solar on WA homes City of Cockburn

  25. Sustainable energy and energy efficiency • Energy efficiency in all forms • Distributed, renewable energy • Known costs, resource life 1000++ years • Stored energy in commodities, desal • Energy storage key to: • improved energy delivery • increased reliability • reduced emissions

  26. Technology energy use www.epri.com

  27. Global electricity growth

  28. Rapid change - Personal mobility

  29. Private transport • Fuel efficiency, other energy sources • Transport • Energy storage key • New technologies may be disruptive

  30. Electric mass transit

  31. Commercialvehicles Smith Newton electric truck Mega electric diesel hybrids • London Bus • Haul Pak + Earthmover • Mitsubishi Fuso • Honda prime mover • Oshkosh Military Vehicle

  32. Flying and floating fuels • February 25, 2008 – Virgin Atlantic Stages the First Biofuel Flight • October 30, 2007 - U.S.A.F. Tests New Synthetic Fuel on Plane • February 14, 2011 – Qantas follows US Military to algae biofuels • September 13, 2011 – US Navy announces by 2016 Green Strike Group, powered by renewable diesel-electric engines, nuclear power and aviation biofuels, is able to operate independent of fossil fuel supply line threat or disruption

  33. Smart grids, smart houses (and farms) • Integrated energy planning • Smart grids to coordinate the actions of devices such as loads & generators

  34. Green cities • Global • Tianjin Eco-City China • Ulsan Ecocity Korea • Masdar City UAE • Australia • City of Sydney – 70% CO2 reduction by 2030 • City of Melbourne • Stirling City Centre, Perth • City of Fremantle • Yanchep – 2 x 100 000 • Local government critical

  35. www.seaaus.com.au

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