Global Warming and Geopolitics: The Future of Climate Change

1. Global Warming and Geopolitics Israel Klabin

2. Introduction • “The process of acceleration of history” • Recent changes shaping a new world • Impacts of climate change • Global responsibilities and global security • Towards unsustainability

3. Present Critical Environmental Issues Source: OECD Environmental Outlook to 2030 (2008)

4. 62% increase 26% increase 722 8.2 6.5 Population growth 446 (Billion) (Billion) (Quadrillion BTU) (Quadrillion BTU) Energy demand 2005 Energy demand 2030 Energy demand increase Population 2005 Population 2030 Climate ChangePressures on Current Consumption Standards • The economic prospects of many of the poorest countries are threatened by the unsustainable use of natural resources • Uncontrolled pollution in rapidly-growing cities • Impacts of climate change in different ecosystems Source: OECD Environmental Outlook to 2030 (2008)

5. 400 ppm CO2e 95% 5% 450 ppm CO2e 550 ppm CO2e 650 ppm CO2e 750 ppm CO2e Eventual temperature change (relative to pre-industrial) 0°C 1°C 2°C 3°C 4°C 5°C Impacts on Different EcosystemsTemperature Increases Stern Review Final Report (2006)

6. Impacts on Different EcosystemsWater more than a billion people will likely suffer water shortages glaciers disappear; threats to water supplies increased sea level threatens London, Shanghai, New York, Tokyo and Hong Kong, Tel Aviv greater than 30% decrease in runoff in the Mediterranean and Southern Africa Stern Review Final Report (2006)

7. Impacts on Different EcosystemsFood falling crop yields in many developing regions strong impacts in Sahel region entire regions experience major declines in crop yields rising number of people at risk of hunger in Africa and West Asia rising crop yields in high latitude yields in some developed regions decline Stern Review Final Report (2006)

8. Impacts on Different EcosystemsEcosystems extensive droughts and collapse of the Western Amazon rainforest coral reefs irreversibly damaged impacts on ecosystems that will be unable to maintain current form extinction of species (up to 20-50%) Stern Review Final Report (2006)

9. Critical IssuesGeography X Geology OPEC + Russia OECD + BIC Others In 2006, the 12 member countries of OPEC, together with Russia had 82% of the world’s proven conventional oil reserves but consumed only 12% of the world’s oil, whereas the countries of the OECD, together with BIC (Brazil, India and China) had 8 % of all reserves but consumed 71% of all oil Source: Compiled from BP, Statistical Review of World Energy (2007)

10. Critical Issues Impacts of Global Climate Change on Geopolitics • Oil consumers paid US$4 billion to US$5 billion more for crude oil per day in 2007 than they did five years ago, pumping more than US$2 trillion into the coffers of oil companies and oil producing nations • That fact alone will change the global economy and the centers of economic power • New strategies are already being shaped on how to face stronger and better-equipped “enemies” • Countries are competing for energy derived from fossil fuel and at the same time are trying to conserve energy • Developing countries have increased the demand for energy, provoking new alliances, conflicts and threats for developed countries Source: The Geopolitics of Energy-Carlos Pascual, Brookings Institution (2008)

11. Critical Issues Security Risks • National • The national security consequences of climate change should be fully integrated into national security and national defense strategies • Military leaders know they cannot wait for certainty • Failing to act because a warning isn’t precise enough is unacceptable, according to their view • International • It is more likely that many states will collapse due to rivalries interstate on regional and global levels • Adaptation measures in one country may become a potential threat for neighboring countries, for example: water basins Source: The Geopolitics of Climate Change-FOI, The Swedish Defense Reaserch Agency (2007) Source: The National Security and the Threat of Climate Change The CNA Corporation / Center for Naval Analysis, USA (2007)

12. Potential Corrective MeasuresMitigation from the Perspective of Security • Security should be considered indivisible and global in relation to mitigation of climate change • A comprehensive view of common security must take economic, societal aspects and ecological impacts from climate change into account • International agencies should be capable of overruling political and military conflicts due to mitigation and adaptation that becomes necessary as a consequence of climate change Source: The Geopolitics of Climate Change-FOI, The Swedish Defense Reaserch Agency (2007)

13. Potential Corrective MeasuresPolicy Responses to Climate Change • Policy responses to climate change, such as carbon taxes, cap-and-trade systems, and tougher efficiency and fuel standards, are of very high priority • Widespread deployment of new energy technologies, in addition to energy conservation, are the most important tools to respond to the challenge of climate change • Broad, market-based incentives in the private sector to promote technological advances are imperative Source: “Facing the Hard Truths about Energy” – National Petroleum Council (2007)

14. Potential Corrective MeasuresMitigation Action • The more countries that participate in mitigation action for climate change, the cheaper it will be to curb global emissions • If OECD countries alone implement a carbon tax starting at US$ 25/tonn of CO2 in 2008, this would lead to a 43% reduction in OECD greenhouse gas emissions. However, global emissions would still be 38% higher in 2050 compared to the 2000 levels • If Brazil, China, India and Russia follow suit with the same policy in 2020, and the rest of the world in 2030, global greenhouse gas emissions in 2050 could be brought down to the 2000 levels (0% increase) Source: OECD Environmental Outlook to 2030 (2008)

15. Potential Corrective MeasuresCase Studies • Japan Imports 16% less oil today than in 1973, although the economy has more than doubled through converting oil-reliant electricity generation system into one powered by natural gas, nuclear energy or alternative fuels • Guyana Proposed to enter into a bilateral agreement or be a part of a market based carbon trading regime to insure the integrity of its native tropical forests through avoided deforestation (REDD) • European Union Several actions have been taken: binding targets for 2020 to reduce GHG emissions and global energy use by 20%; ensure 20% of renewable energy sources; carbon pricing through the Emissions Trading Scheme and energy taxation Source: OECD Environmental Outlook to 2030 (2008)

16. Final RemarksFour Geopolitical Blocs on Climate Debate • Emerging market economies led by China and India: have resisted any form of binding international targets, and have focused their demands on technology dissemination and financing for the cost differential for clean technologies • Other developing countries: bearing the brunt of flooding, desertification and other catastrophic effects of climate change, their demands focus on financing to adapt to the impacts of climate change • Europe and Japan: support the adoption of binding emissions targets • United States: supports setting a long-term goal and nationally binding medium-term commitments, but not an internationally binding treaty that holds countries collectively to account Source: The Geopolitics of Energy-Carlos Pascual, Brookings Institution (2008)

17. Conclusion • The Bali Conference produced a step forward • All countries agreed on the principle that a GHG emissions cap is necessary • Discussions are now directed to the distribution of responsibilities among developed and developing nations • Also on the table is curbing deforestation and the funding of research on renewables • The moment requires statementship and solidarity “We must learn to live together as brothers or perish together as fools” Martin Luther King Jr.

18. Contact Israel Klabin President FBDS Board of Trustees ikla@fbds.org.br FBDS — Brazilian Foundation for Sustainable Development Rua Eng. Álvaro Niemeyer, 76 – São Conrado 22610-180 Rio de Janeiro – RJ BRAZIL Tel: +55 (21) 3322-4520 – Fax: +55 (21) 3322-5903 Site: www.fbds.org.br