Do Developed or Developing Countries Emit More Carbon Dioxide Into the Atmosphere?

1. Do Developed or Developing Countries Emit More Carbon Dioxide Into the Atmosphere? A Data Management Culminating Project Presentation by Mathew Hall, Dr. G.W. Williams S.S. Aurora, Ontario

2. Thesis Statement As the indicating factors of a country’s development increase, that country will emit more carbon dioxide into the atmosphere because of increased motor vehicle transportation, energy consumption, and urbanization.

3. Background Information

4. Carbon Dioxide Emissions (CO2) • Carbon dioxide is an essential gas in the Earth’s Atmosphere • It is classified as a “greenhouse gas” • Greenhouse gasses trap the suns radiation in the atmosphere, maintaining the temperature of the Earth • Carbon dioxide is second to water vapor as the leading greenhouse gas in the atmosphere (Greenhouse Gas 2005) • Carbon dioxide levels have risen by 31% since 1895 (The Greenhouse Gasses 2004) • One tonne of carbon burned  3.7 tonnes of CO2 (The Greenhouse Gasses 2004) • 22 billion tonnes of fossil fuels are burned each year (The Greenhouse Gasses 2004) Climate Change • 20th Century has had the warmest global temperature in 1000 years (The Greenhouse Gasses) • Increased temperatures cause: polar ice caps melting, increased sea level, animal habitats being destroyed, erosion of island shores, drought, and more common heat waves (Understanding Climate Change 2004) • General scientific consensus is that increased levels of CO2 are the cause of the Increase in global temperatures (Understanding Climate Change 2004) • Carbon dioxide has not been proven to be the cause, this is only an accepted theory (Understanding Climate Change 2004)

5. Developed vs. Developing Countries • No real scale to judge development • World Bank states that a country with GDP per capita of under $6000 US is developing (development- categorizing countries 2005) • United Nations uses different indicators such as: life expectancy, literacy rate, enrolment in schools, urban population levels and GDP per capita (development- categorizing countries 2005) • In General: Developed Countries  - higher GDP - more urban population

6. Analysis Causes of CO2 Emissions

7. Sources of Carbon Dioxide Emissions • Fuel combustion accounts for the greatest proportion of CO2 emissions • There is an extremely strong linear correlation between total fuel emissions and CO2 emissions 96%

8. The two greatest contributors to fuel combustion CO2 emissions are transportation and energy industries

9. Transportation • Fairly strong correlation between gasoline consumption and CO2 emissions • Inference: Countries that consume more gasoline will emit more CO2

10. Units : Millions of Liters of Gas • Developed countries consume more gasoline, on average, than developing countries • Developed countries consume 2.5 times more gasoline • Thesis is supported

11. Energy Industries • Very strong positive correlation between CO2 emissions and total energy consumption • 99% of the variation in CO2 emissions result from variations in energy consumption • Inference: Countries that consume more energy will emit more CO2

12. Energy Consumption Units: Thousand metric tonnes of oil equivalent • Developed countries consume twice as much energy as developing countries on average • Developed countries are relatively inconsistent in total energy consumption • Thesis is supported σ :Developed Countries – 123896 Developing Countries - 41783

13. Analysis Urbanization and CO2 Emissions

14. Urban population has a weak positive correlation with gasoline consumption • Inference: Countries with more urban populations don’t necessarily consume more gasoline • Urban population has a strong correlation with energy consumption • Inference: Countries with more urban population will consume more energy

15. Urban population has a very weak correlation with CO2 emissions • Inference: Having more of an urban population will not result in more CO2 emissions

16. Energy Consumption Carbon Dioxide Emissions R2=0.99 Strong R2=0.87 Strong R2=0.34 WEAK Urban Population

17. IQR: Developed Countries – 8387 Developing Countries - 5816 • Developed Countries have greater urban population values than developing ones • Developing countries have more consistency in urban population values • Thesis is not supported as urban population has little impact on CO2 emissions

18. Analysis Overall Carbon Dioxide Emissions

19. Total CO2 Emissions Units: thousand metric tonnes IQR - 159925 • Developed countries’ CO2 emissions are higher than the world median, developing countries’ emissions are lower than the median • Developing countries are more consistent in CO2 emission values • Thesis is supported IQR - 29278

20. Units: Metric tonnes of CO2 per person IQR: Developed Countries – 5.26 Developing Countries – 2.69 • Developed Countries emit more CO2 per capita on average; approximately 700% more per person • Developed countries are more inconsistent in CO2 per capita, and it’s distribution is more “balanced” • Thesis is ultimately supported

21. Developed vs. Developing Countries’ CO2 Emissions From 1950 to 2000 • Developed countries have had a greater proportion of total CO2 emissions since 1950 • The proportion of developed countries’ CO2 emissions has been decreasing over time since 1950 • Thesis is tentatively supported

22. Analysis GDP and CO2 Emissions

23. Examples of Developing Countries • GDP is increasing over time, CO2 emissions mirror that increase • Very strong correlations between GDP and CO2 emissions • Inference: In developing countries, increases in GDP will parallel increases in CO2 emissions • Thesis is supported

24. Examples of Developed Countries • GDP is increasing over time, CO2 emissions do not mirror that increase • Much weaker correlations between GDP and CO2 emissions • Inference: In developed countries, increases in GDP do not parallel increases in CO2 emissions • Thesis is not supported

25. What Are Some Possible Answers for the Trends in Developed Countries’ CO2 Emissions? • Increased use of “clean” fuels in developed countries • France is a world leader in the use of nuclear power, use less and less fossil fuels each year (Earthtrends 2005) • Germany demolished soviet power plants which produced enormous amounts of CO2 (O’Ronian 2005) • Kyoto protocol signed in 1997 (Kyoto Protocol 2005)

26. Conclusions • Gasoline consumption and energy consumption have strong correlations with CO2 emissions • Developed countries consume more gasoline and energy than developing countries, on average • Although urban population levels have a strong correlation with energy industries, it has a weak correlation with CO2 emissions • The fact that developed countries have greater urban population levels does not have any effect on CO2 emission levels • Developed countries emit more total CO2 and CO2 per capita than developing countries • The proportion of CO2 emissions developed countries are accounting for is decreasing over time • Developing countries have strong correlations between GDP and CO2 emissions • Developed countries have weak correlations between GDP and CO2 emissions • In many developed countries GDP increases while CO2 emissions stay the same or decline, developing countries have increases in both variables

27. Final Thoughts • Developed countries are the focus for reducing CO2 emissions • Presently, this is an effective course of action- developed countries emit more total CO2 • In the future more attention must be paid to developing countries, as they may come to surpass developed countries if trends continue

28. Works Cited • development-categorising countries. 14 Dec. 2005 <http://www.tutor2u.net/economics/content/topics/development/development_categorising_countries.htm>. • Earthtrends Energy and Resources- France. 22 December 2005. <http://earthtrends.wri.org/pdf_library/country_profiles/ene_cou_250.pdf> • Greenhouse Gas. 7 December 2005. Wikipedia: The Free Encyclopedia. 14 Dec. 2005 <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenhouse_gas>. • O'Ronain, Miceal. The German Kyoto Protocol Hoax. 17 December 2005. 20 Dec. 2005 <http://www.numberwatch.co.uk/german_kyoto_protocol_hoax.htm>. • The Greenhouse Gasses. 23 August 2004. Government of Canada. 14 Dec. 2005 <http://www.climatechange.gc.ca/english/climate_change/greenhouse.asp>. • Understanding Climate Change. 23 August 2004. Government of Canada. 14 Dec. 2005 <http://www.climatechange.gc.ca/english/climate_change/understanding.asp>. • Kyoto Protocol. 21 December 2005. Wikipedia: The Free Encyclopedia. <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kyoto_Protocol>

29. Bibliography • E-Stat. Statistics Canada. 22 Dec. 2005 <http://estat.statcan.ca/Estat/data.htm>. • Statistical Review of World Energy 2005. 14 June 2005. BP. 22 Dec. 2005 <http://www.bp.com/genericsection.do?categoryId=92&contentId=7005893> - (*Please note: the link above is the website where the actual document can be downloaded) • Global Urban Observatory. 2003. United Nations Human Settlements Programme. 22 Dec. 2005 <http://www.unhabitat.org/programmes/guo/default.asp> • Economic Data. Economics Web Institute. 22 Dec. 2005 <http://www.economicswebinstitute.org/main.htm> • Greenhouse Gasses Database. United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. 22 Dec. 2005 <http://ghg.unfccc.int/> • Earthtrends: The Environmental Information Portal. 2005. World Resources Institute. 22 Dec. 2005 <http://earthtrends.wri.org/index.cfm>