Weimin Jiang, Steven C. Smyth, Qiangliang Li

1. Life cycle-based air quality modelling for technology assessment and policy applications: the concept and technical considerations Weimin Jiang, Steven C. Smyth, Qiangliang Li

2. Outline • Introduction • Two current approaches in analysing air quality impact of technologies • The concept of life cycle-based air quality modelling (lcAQM) for technology assessment and policy applications • Technical considerations for conducting lcAQM • Summary and discussions CMAS Conference, Chapel Hill

3. Introduction • A crucial and pressing issue facing human civilization: Rapidly expanding human material needs/desire vs. Availability and sustainable use of natural resources • The three pillars of sustainable development: Social, economic, and environmental • Possible civilized solution: New and emerging technologies, e.g., biofuels • Key question: Which technologies are really “sustainable”? • What can we (air quality modellers) contribute? Understand potential impact of the technologies on air quality • Who need the answers? − Policy community −Industry − Anyone who breathes CMAS Conference, Chapel Hill

4. Current approach: LCA (1) • LCA = life cycle assessment • Definition by ISO 14040: “the compilation and evaluation of the inputs, outputs, and potential environmental impacts of a product system throughout its life cycle” • Life cycle: from cradle to grave; individual stages or as a whole e.g. from biomass feedstock production to biofuel combustion • ISO 14042: standard on life cycle impact assessment • ISO 14042GaBi (a LCA software) impact category photo-oxidant formation category indicator tropospheric ozone formation characterization factor photochemical ozone creation potential (POCP) CMAS Conference, Chapel Hill

5. Current approach: LCA (2) • Emissions and impact assessment are based on a functional unit: e.g., 1 vehicle-km travelled (VKT), 1 liter of fuel, 1 MJ energy, ...

6. Current approach: 3-D AQM • Use a 3-D air quality model, such as CMAQ, CAMx, CALGRID, ... • Detailed atmospheric chemical and physical processes • Spatially, temporally, and chemically resolved • Technology scales considered • Impact on atmospheric pollutant concentrations • Most (if not all) focused on certain life cycle stage(s), e.g., emissions from vehicle engine combustion CMAS Conference, Chapel Hill

7. The lcAQM concept • lcAQM: life cycle-based Air Quality Modelling • a natural advance of the current AQM practice with life cycle thinking • integrate the LCA framework defined by ISO 14040 with the current AQM approach • Example to illustrate the concept and considerations The potential impact of large scale production and application of SunDiesel as a transportation fuel on air quality in Canada and the U.S. from a whole life cycle perspective. The results are to be used to support policy decisions regarding biofuel development. CMAS Conference, Chapel Hill

8. An operational lcAQM framework

9. Technical consideration: System boundary definition • Chemical, physical, and engineering processes in different life cycle stages to be included in the analysis • SunDiesel: • Introduced by Choren Industries in Germany • Can be used directly to replace petroleum diesel • Made from cellulose, hemicellulose, and lignin, which are major components of a wide variety of biomasses • Produced through two major chemical processes • biomass gasification  syngas (CO, H2, CO2, etc) • Fisher-Tropsch synthesis: syngas  SunDiesel CMAS Conference, Chapel Hill

10. Life cycle of SunDieselas a transportation fuel CMAS Conference, Chapel Hill

11. The biomass production stage CMAS Conference, Chapel Hill

12. The SunDiesel production stage

13. SunDiesel production:an energy self-sufficient model CMAS Conference, Chapel Hill

14. Technical consideration: Modelling scenario definition/design (1) • Possible locations and timing of industrial and agricultural operations in different life cycle stages • Technology application scales and penetration levels • Uncertainties in assumptions: sensitivity tests • SunDiesel: • Canada and continental US • Full year of 2050: substantial displacement of petroleum oil by bio-fuels (?) CMAS Conference, Chapel Hill

15. Technical consideration: Modelling scenario definition/design (2) • Biomass-growing locations: • Land-use coverage in Canada and US • Forest logging site  logging wood residues • Agriculture and other suitable land  energy crops • Energy crop yields • Conversion efficiencies of biomass  SunDiesel • Needs of food crops, animal feed, and energy crops • SunDiesel production plant locations: • Close to the biomass growth or collection sites • Competing factors of plant sizes and distances from the biomass sites CMAS Conference, Chapel Hill

16. Technical consideration: Emissions (1) • Life cycle emissions data: scarce, a major barrier, and require significant efforts • Life cycle thinking in E.I. development: • Cross-checking emissions between different life cycle stages • Ensure completeness and self-consistency among life cycle stages • E.I. used in AQM + LCI (life cycle inventory) used in LCA: emissions data in GaBi, SimaPro, EcoInvent, etc. • Spatial surrogate/ratios, temporal factors: based on scenario definition/design assumptions and to be studied through sensitivity tests CMAS Conference, Chapel Hill

17. Technical consideration: Emissions (2) • Removal of old-technology emissions: analysis of SIC & SCC codes, and emis. source descriptions • SunDiesel: • Emissions from some life cycle stages can be assembled or derived: • GaBi: Functional unit-based NOx, VOC, SO2, PM, and heavy metal emissions for various processes related to different fertilizers, fuels, and power • Analysis of fertilizer and energy needs for biomass growth, and transportation, storage, and dispensing • Speciated VOC emissions  VOC speciation profiles for some life cycle stages CMAS Conference, Chapel Hill

18. Technical consideration: Emissions (3) • Measured emissions from SunDiesel production not publicly available  a major challenge for the SunDiesel lcAQM. • Effort in estimating the emissions with great uncertainties • Need emissions data: Choren or other FT processes, flash gas combustion • Spatial surrogate ratios: reflect assumed spatial distributions of agricultural & industrial sources within life cycle stages • Temporal factors: reflect seasonality of agriculture and industrial operational schedules • Emissions from petroleum diesel life cycle: to be partially removed to reflect displacement of the fuel by SunDiesel CMAS Conference, Chapel Hill

19. Technical consideration: Model implementation and result analysis • Emissions grouped by major life cycle stages: e.g., feedstock generation, fuel production, fuel transportation, storage, and dispensing, and fuel usage for transportation purposes, etc. • Model runs with all the emissions, and sensitivity runs with or without emissions from certain life cycle stages  the air quality impact of individual life cycle stages or whole life cycle CMAS Conference, Chapel Hill

20. Summary and discussions • lcAQM = 3-D AQM practice with life cycle thinking for analysing technology impact on air quality. • Special considerations: • System boundary definition: lcAQM foundation • Modelling scenario design: lcAQM foundation • Emissions data collection, estimation, and analysis: • Data availability • Life cycle thinking in E.I. development for AQM • AQM E.I. + LCI • Spatial and temporal information associated with life cycle stages • Model runs and analysis: • Based on the whole life cycle or individual life cycle stages CMAS Conference, Chapel Hill

21. Acknowledgements • Helmut Roth and Albert Chan, ICPET/NRC: Review and comments • Natural Resources Canada: Funding for SunDiesel analysis CMAS Conference, Chapel Hill

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