Drought Monitoring in Southeastern Europe

1. Gregor Gregorič Environmental Agency of Slovenia BALWOIS Conference 25 – 29 May 2010, Ohrid, Macedonia Drought MonitoringinSoutheastern Europe

2. Contents DMCSEE Background DMCSEE – running project Drought monitoring efforts in SE Europe Introduction of the session

3. Drought Management Centre for Southeastern EuropeBackground DMCSEE initiative – “top-down” approach October 2004: A“Balkan Drought Workshop” in Poiana/Brasov (RO), co-sponsored by the UNCCD Outcome: establishment of aWorking Group to formulate a proposal that identified the needs and furtheractions for laying the foundation of the Balkan Sub-regional DroughtManagement Centre.

4. DMCSEE Background April 2006:“2nd technical workshop” in Sofia (BG). Participants: UNCCD focal points, permanent representatives with the WMO + observers from UNCCD and WMO Outcomes: 1) Framework for the preparation of a project proposal on the establishmentof a Drought Management Centre for South-Eastern Europe (DMCSEE)within the context of the UNCCD, Further steps towards the establishment of DMCSEE September 2006: Decision on DMCSEE host institution (procedure led by WMO as decided in Sofia).

6. What is DMCSEE? Currently, DMCSEE is in its “bridge project” phase aiming at permanent functioning centre Most suitable project framework was found to be Transnational Cooperation Programme for SE Europe www.southeast-europe.net Main aim of transnational cooperation programme is to foster a balanced territorial development and territorial integration within the cooperation area -> common infrastructure, not research!

7. DMCSEE – TCP-SEE project 15 partnersfrom 9 countries Total project budget 2.2 M€ Not all countries participate! (not all countries are eligible)

8. DMCSEE – TCP-SEE project Foreseen outcomes of the TCP project Overview of existing procedures for climatological mapping; Can we profit from existing capacities in climatological analisys to perform drought monitoring? Can we do better than just using global datasets (such as GPCC)? Standardized precipitation index (SPI), computed from GPCC data Example of late spring drought in 2009 which resulted in crop yield losses in Bulgaria and Serbia

9. Foreseen outcomes of the TCP project Emphasis is not put into development of i.e. new drought indices, rather on standardization of existing software • Distribution of common software • Agreement on operational procedures

10. Foreseen outcomes of the TCP project Overview of existing procedures for climatological mapping Can we use experience from existing projects? • EUROGRID project: • ambition to provide regional products without inconsistencies accross national borders • web based platform for dissemination of standardized products prepared in national framework

11. HAZARD RISK VULNERABILITY • Foreseen outcomes of the TCP project • Overview of existing procedures for climatological mapping • risk = hazard x vulnerability Both, natural hazard due to climate variability, and more subjective vulnerability, cause risk of drought impacts (Source: MEDROPLAN)

12. Foreseen outcomes of the TCP project Vulnerability assessment using interaction matrices method

13. Foreseen outcomes of the TCP project Vulnerability assessment using crop-yield model Can crop-yield model simulations help us understanding vulnerability to drought in agriculture?

14. DMCSEE Session Thursday, 16:50 Drought Sensitivity/Vulnerability Sandor Szalai, Hungary: Drought sensitivity investigations and its tendency Drought Monitoring Tamas Szentimrey, Hungary: Application of mish method for gridding of SPI series Jožef Roškar, Slovenia: Application of NWP models for drought monitoring Mirjana Ivanov, Montenegro: Status of drought monitoring in Montenegro F.C. Okorie, Nigeria: Drought monitoring in northern Nigeria using remote sensing technology

15. DMCSEE Session Friday, 9:00 Drought, Climate and climate change Monika Lakatos, Hungary: Change of several dry climate indices on homogenized precipitation data Bogdan Octavia, Romania: Considerations upon the droughts of Oltenia and their effects Catalin C. Simota,Romania:Biophysical criteria designating agriculture drought affected areas in the context of climate changes Valentin Kazandjiev, Bulgaria: Climate change and agroclimatic resources on the end of twentieth century in Bulgaria and Macedonia

16. DMCSEE Session Friday, 9:00 (Continued) Drought and hydrology Andrej Machlica, Slovakia: Influence of meteorological drought on selected components of water balance in HornaNitra area, Slovakia Domingo B. Sanz, Spain: Proposal of evaluation criteria for environmental flows in drought situations Miriam Fendekova, Slovakia:Surface and groundwater drought evaluation with respect to aquatic habitat qualityapplied in Torysa river catchment, Slovakia Olivera Doklestic, Montenegro: Water shortage risk modeling in supply systems in the coastal region of Montenegro Volkan Birinci, Turkey: A study on modeling daily mean flow with MLR, ARIMA and RBFNN Radovan Savić, Serbia:Impact of low Danube levels on the water intake in Danube-Tisza-Danube hydrosystem

17. DMCSEE Session Friday, 11:30 Drought and agriculture Milena Kercheva, Bulgaria: Use of irrigation scheduling regime as drought indicator Zornitsa Popova, Bulgaria: Model validation for maize irrigation scheduling in Plovdiv region Zornitsa Popova, Bulgaria: Impact of climate uncertainties and irrigation scheduling strategy on irrigation seasonlength Spaska Kalcheva, Bulgaria: Model and software development for applicability of irrigation water depending on its quality Martin Pavlovič, Slovenia: Modelling of quality parameters for hops (humulus lupulus L.) in relation to meteorological variables Vera Tzenova, Bulgaria:Water deficit influence during different growth stages on the soybean yeld Sofija Nikolova, Macedonia: Vulnerability of renewable energy production to climate change