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Exploring Economic Dynamics: A Simulation Study of Mexican Economy Growth

This seminar discusses a post-Keynesian simulation of the Mexican economy's growth, using a stock-flow framework to analyze macroeconomic processes. The study aims to replicate economic evolution for better understanding trends and variable movements. Key topics include private sector modeling, stock accumulation, income growth factors, and price levels. Measurement difficulties, private income approximation, investment patterns, and distributive conflicts are explored. The analysis includes behavior equations, growth rates, open and closed economy considerations, benefit participation estimates, and graphic results. The presentation emphasizes a simple yet stylistic exposition that balances empirical evidence with theoretical and methodological ideas.

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Exploring Economic Dynamics: A Simulation Study of Mexican Economy Growth

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  1. International Seminar Advances in Economic Dynamics and Development A post-keynesian simulation of the growth of the Mexican economy Noemí Medina and Martín Puchet Anyul Posgrado en Economía, FE, UNAM October 13 – 15, Curitiba, Paraná, Brazil

  2. Three guide ideas Thestock – flowapproachistheconsistentframeworktoexplainthedynamicalmacroeconomicprocess. Itisnecesarytobelieve in ourtheoryaboutthestylizedfactsbyempiricalreasons and notoverallby formal arguments. Theobjectiveisreplicatetheeconomicevolutionwiththeintention of tolearnaboutthetendencies and movements of the variables

  3. A model of theprivate sector, stocks Ourworkintendstomake a model of the stock accumulation as thefollowing: wherethedependent variables are the capital – privateincome and deposits – privateincome ratios and depend, amongothers, of thegrowth factor of income (f) and pricelevel (h).

  4. Accounting matrices

  5. Measurementdificulties, 1

  6. Measurementdificulties, 2

  7. A model of private sector, identities Private income: an approximation by the disposable national income Investment and different savings by sector

  8. A model of private sector, behaviourequations Gross benefits: mark – up and direct costs: salaries and capital imported goods Distributive conflict about the growth – income ratio: g

  9. A model of private sector, behaviourequations, 2 Investment Saving

  10. A model of private sector, growth rate Open economy with goverment Close economy

  11. A model of private sector, results Participation of the benefits: estimated equation Calibrated Parameters

  12. A model of private sector, graphicresults Private income and invesment (millions of constant pesos at 2003 prices)

  13. Provisional conclusion I intendedtomake a simple expositionbutwithstyle,if I reachedtheobjective I will be happy: Simple whenitrepresentsthefacts And withstylebecausethetheoretic and methodologic ideas notlost

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