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Climate Research in Nepal Himalayas

Climate Research in Nepal Himalayas. Saraju K. Baidya (Department of Hydrology & Meteorology). “Mountains, witnesses of global changes. Research in the Himalaya and Karakoram: SHARE-Asia Project”, 16-17 November 2005. Physiography. Meteorological Station Network. Precipitation 337

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Climate Research in Nepal Himalayas

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  1. Climate Research in Nepal Himalayas Saraju K. Baidya (Department of Hydrology & Meteorology) “Mountains, witnesses of global changes. Research in the Himalaya and Karakoram: SHARE-Asia Project”, 16-17 November 2005

  2. Physiography

  3. Meteorological Station Network • Precipitation 337 • Climatic 68 • Agro-met 22 • Synoptic 9 • Aero-Synoptic 6 • Total 442 • Automatic 16

  4. Spatial Distribution of Mean Monsoon Precipitation (mm) Altitude determines the spatial distribution of rainfall

  5. Climatic Trends in Nepal Maximum Temperature Trends in the Himalaya (1971-94) Shrestha et. al, 1999 No significant trend in rainfall

  6. Climate Research • The glaciological and meteorological observations in Nepal Himalayas started in 1973 and 1974 as the "Glaciological Expedition to Nepal (GEN)". • Nepal Himalayas: 2% of World’s Freshwater • Snowmelt:10% of annual flow • The studies show that these glaciers are retreating at an alarming rate. • Many researches in this field highlight the impacts on water resource management and Glacier lake outburst Floods (GLOF).

  7. Activities Snow and Glacier Studies • Operation of 7 Hydrometeorological stations • Hydrological and Meteorological data (Elevation 2700 - 4300 m) collection and publication • Glacier and glacier lake studies • Model development for snow and glacier melt runoff Parameters (i) Temperature (ii) Relative Humidity (iii) Precipitation (iv) Solar radiation (v) Wind speed/ direction (vi) River stage/discharge (vii) Water equivalent of snow

  8. Gauging Stations, Annapurna Region Automatic Water Level Recorder,Langtang Khumbu Automatic Weather Station

  9. Snow survey for determination of water equivalent of snow Snow pit Snow sampler

  10. Retreat of AX010 Glacier Retreat from 1978-1989 Was 30 m

  11. Imja Lake (Khumbu region) SOURCE: WECS 2002 Area: 0.86 Km2, 14.7% more than in 1999 SOURCE: DHM

  12. Climate Change Studies • Nepal Himalayas are highly vulnerable to the climate change. It has wide impact on water resources and agriculture of Nepal • His Majesty’s Government (HMG) of Nepal instituted a Country Study program on Climate Change in 1994 under the support of US Country Studies Program. • For the first time in Nepal, General Circulation Models (GCMs) Outputs were used and climate change scenarios were developed.

  13. Climate Change Studies • Four models • CCCM: Canadian Climate Centre Model (2 Grid pts.) • GFD3: Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory R-30 Model (2 Grid pts.) • UK89: United Kingdom Meteorological Office Model (2 Grid pts.) • GISS: Goddard Institute of Space Science Model (1 Grid pt.)

  14. Climate Change Studies • For 2XCO2 (22 stations) • Precipitation increase • CCCM : 36% • GFD3: 67% • Increase in Monsoon season and decrease in dry (winter) season • Temperature increase • CCCM: 1.4oC to 4.1oC; 2.9oC • GFD3: +1.7oC to 4.2oC; 3.1oC • Limitation: low resolution

  15. Status of Climate Models in Nepal • Rough topography of Nepal requires high resolution models • Currently Nepal is experimenting on two RCMs • RegCM3 (ICTP, Italy) • PRECIS (Hadley Centre, UK) • Main aim of these models is to study the impact of climate change • Currently, we are on the process of validation experiments

  16. 0 RegCM3 Results of 1997 June 30 km Observation 50 km 50 km 75 km 75 km

  17. 0 RegCM3: 1997 monsoon Nested Observation 75 km Nested: 15 km

  18. Time required for 1 month simulation • Major issues Running RCM • Time constraint to run high resolution models • Computing facilities

  19. Monsoon Study • A project was developed in 1999 and number of meteorological stations ranging from 500 m to 4400 m were installed in the Marsyangdi river basin in central Nepal and Monsoon Himalayan Precipitation Experiment (MOHPREX) was carried out during June 2001 to study the interaction of the Himalayas and the Asian summer monsoon Source: Ana P. Barros and Timothy J. Lang (2001)

  20. The mountains act as barriers to the south-easterly monsoon flow from BOB and consequently low level convergence occurs. • Upslope and upvalley flows reduce this convergence. The upslope flow leads to high level convection and secondary peak in precipitation. • with the absence of upslope winds, and prevalent down slope winds, strong convergence of the moist advected monsoon flow occurs which acts to force convection which lead to the nocturnal peak in rainfall in these areas. Source: Monitoring the Monsoon in the Himalayas: Observations in Central Nepal, June 2001, Ana P. Barros and Timothy J. Lang

  21. Concluding Remarks • Nepal deserves special attention in climate related research because • Complex Topography • Himalayas are highly vulnerable to climate change • Himalayas are the water tower for South Asia where most of the poorest people live • Himalayan range plays an important role in Asian Summer Monsoon • Need of special research on Climate models in Himalayan regions

  22. Thank You

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