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Construction of nature reserves

Construction of nature reserves. Program WORLDMAP Input data: Species diversity Cost of unit area Presence of other species, ……. Measures of diversity. Number of species Number of species from predefined group (selective richness) Range centers Subtree length – phylogenetical coverage.

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Construction of nature reserves

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  1. Construction of nature reserves • Program WORLDMAP Input data: • Species diversity • Cost of unit area • Presence of other species, ……..

  2. Measures of diversity • Number of species • Number of species from predefined group (selective richness) • Range centers • Subtree length – phylogenetical coverage

  3. Measures of rarity • Range size rarity – count species with limited range • Range centers

  4. Spatial turnover • Range edges • Spatial heterogeneity

  5. Construction of nature reserves • Hotspots • Complementarity areas • Minimizing costs • Comparison with random selection

  6. Population viability analysis (PVA)

  7. What is PVA • Analysis of all possible factors affecting survival of a species/population and assessment of probability of recovery in a given time period

  8. What affects population viability • Demographic stochasticity • Environmental stochasticity • Catastrophes/Disturbances • Genetic processes

  9. Parts of PVA • Local population dynamics • Number of populations and spatial position • Population sizes • Carrying capacity • Frequency and effect of catastrophes • Effects of inbreeding • Migration • Occurrence of suitable unoccupied habitats

  10. Types of models • Precision of information • Spatial and temporal scale • Studied parameter (individual, population…)

  11. Precision of information

  12. Information on local population dynamics • Complete population dynamics • Only population growth rate and its variations Relationship to individual life span

  13. Information on inbreeding depression • Sensitivity of the species • Affected fitness components • Relationship between degree of inbreeding and fitness – shape of the relationship • Reproductive system

  14. Other complicating factors • Density dependence • Source-sink dynamics

  15. Density dependence

  16. Density dependence • Sources of density dependence • Predation • Researchers

  17. Source-sink dynamics Population size vs. local population growth rate

  18. Studied parameter Types of models • Individual-based – follow individuals • Matrix-based – follow numbers of individuals • Models following gene flow

  19. Spatial scale • Single local population • Regional scale • Total range of species

  20. Precision x possibility to generalize • Amount of information in the model • Generality of the model • Realism of the conclusions

  21. Comparing results of PVA • Sensitivity analysis

  22. Sensibility of PVA Quantitative predictions vs. summarization of information • Summarization of information on local population dynamics • Identification of types of endangerment • Assessment of effect of endangerment • Comparison of different scenarios

  23. Reliability of predictions

  24. Predictions of local dynamics Capricorn silvereye, Zosterops lateralis chlorocephalus, Brook & Kikkawa 1998

  25. Reliability of predictions Brook et al. 2000, summary of 21 PVA’s

  26. Reliability of predictions Brook et al. 2000, summary of 21 PVA’s

  27. Threshold response Territorial mammal - simulations, Lande 1987

  28. Threshold response Pulliam 1992

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