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TECHNIQUE OF UNCERTAINTY AND SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS FOR SUSTAINABLE BUILDING ENERGY

poster P3-16. 1. TECHNIQUE OF UNCERTAINTY AND SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS FOR SUSTAINABLE BUILDING ENERGY SYSTEMS PERFORMANCE CALCULATIONS. Petr KOTEK Filip JORDÁN, Karel KABELE, Jan HENSEN. Czech Technical University in Prague, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Czech Republic

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TECHNIQUE OF UNCERTAINTY AND SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS FOR SUSTAINABLE BUILDING ENERGY

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  1. poster P3-16 1 TECHNIQUE OFUNCERTAINTY AND SENSITIVITY ANALYSISFOR SUSTAINABLE BUILDING ENERGY SYSTEMS PERFORMANCE CALCULATIONS Petr KOTEK Filip JORDÁN, Karel KABELE, Jan HENSEN Czech Technical University in Prague, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Czech Republic Technische Universiteit Eindhoven, Building Physics & Systems, Netherlands 9

  2. Introduction The crucial in the optimization methodsof energy consumption are uncertainty and sensitivity analyses (UA & SA) and their results. The MonteCarlo(MCA) method was used to find out the most influential parameters of a thermal energy simulation model and simple analytical model of HVAC system 2 repeated simulations 9

  3. Procedure – case study ASHREA BESTESTcase600was chosen 3 x48 sampling random sampling (crude MonteCarlo method) software procedure sample matrix S = 6 simulations 9

  4. Procedure – case study ASHREA BESTESTcase600was chosen 3 x48 sampling LatinHypercube sampling reduce number of simulations software procedure 1 2 3 4 5 6 sample matrix S = 6 simulations 9

  5. xn inputs with uncertainty UA & SA ykoutputs model execution pre-processor post-processor sample matrix.sam outputs.out outputs from simulations Inputs for simulations external model 200 automatic simulations heat losses heat gains IES<VE> Softwares for UA & SA - procedure SimLab 4 sampling software procedure MS Excel 9

  6. gains [kw] losses time the coldest day THERMAL SIMULATION heating and cooling demand during the whole year heat losses resultsfor main values of inputs heat gains 5 9

  7. SA from SimLab THERMAL SIMULATION heating and cooling demand during the whole year with uncertainty heat losses results with uncertainty bound from 200 simulations heat gains 5 9

  8. HVAC SYSTEMS AND CALCULATIONS heat losses heat gains FCU VAV 6 9

  9. HVAC SYSTEMS AND CALCULATIONS heat losses heat gains FCU VAV LOADS with uncertainty bound LOADS with uncertainty bound AHU AHU 7 FCU VAV-box 9

  10. RESULTS by using VAV system we save energy, but according to the uncertainty in inputs it can be less effective than FCU UA SA with combination of energy simulation and MonteCarlo simulations we can find out the most sensitive parameters for constructions and for HVAC components and settings. These parameters can be optimized with GenOpt (TrnOpt), BeOpt,… 8 9

  11. International end of presentation DANK U WELVOOR UW AANDACHT DĚKUJI ZA POZORNOST THANK YOUFOR YOUR ATTENTION 9

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