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Two Countries, One Forest Phase 2 Science Workplan

Two Countries, One Forest Phase 2 Science Workplan. Gillian Woolmer, WCS Canada. Science Working Group. Advisory. Mark Anderson (The Nature Conservancy) Karen Beazley (Dalhousie University) Graham Forbes (University of New Brunswick) Louise Gratton (Nature Conservancy Canada)

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Two Countries, One Forest Phase 2 Science Workplan

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  1. Two Countries, One ForestPhase 2 Science Workplan Gillian Woolmer, WCS Canada

  2. Science Working Group Advisory • Mark Anderson (The Nature Conservancy) • Karen Beazley (Dalhousie University) • Graham Forbes (University of New Brunswick) • Louise Gratton (Nature Conservancy Canada) • Justina Ray (WCS Canada) • Conrad Reining (The Wildlands Project) • Steve Trombulak (Middlebury Collage) – Phase 1 Chair • Gillian Woolmer (WCS Canada) – Phase 2 Chair

  3. Phase 2 Workplan Goal: Design a Conservation System that is robust for Today and Tomorrow Connectivity Climate Change

  4. PRESENT FUTURE 2100 Vegetation Climate Human Culture 5 Vegetation Climate Human Culture 3 4 6 Focal Taxa 1 Focal Taxa - Distribution - Suitable Habitat - Distribution - Suitable Habitat Non-focal Taxa Info (e.g. ELU’s) Priority Areas Priority Areas 7 - Core Areas - Linkages - Viability Analysis - Core Areas - Linkages - Viability Analysis Movement Ecology 2 8 9 10 10 + 11 Robust Conservation System

  5. Conservation Network for Today

  6. PRESENT FUTURE 2100 Phase 2 Workplan: Vegetation Climate Human Culture 5 Vegetation Climate Human Culture 3 4 6 Focal Taxa 1 Focal Taxa - Distribution - Suitable Habitat - Distribution - Suitable Habitat Non-focal Taxa Info (e.g. ELU’s) Priority Areas Priority Areas 7 - Core Areas - Linkages - Viability Analysis - Core Areas - Linkages - Viability Analysis Movement Ecology 2 8 9 10 10 + 11 Robust Conservation System

  7. Present Core Areas Importance: • MARXAN site selection tool • 1000 ha planning units • Protected Areas locked-in, Urban areas locked-out • Preference for public lands (incld. crown lands) • Conservation elements • Focal species – lynx, marten and Wolf (Carroll, 2003 & 2005) • Ecological variation – ELU’s (TNC/NCC)) • Rare element occurrences (TNC/NCC) Threat: • Current Human Footprint (2000) • Future Human Footprint (2040)

  8. Planning Units Hexagons that transition from a current state of High Irreplaceability / Low Vulnerability to a state of High Irreplaceability / High Vulnerability are highlighted in varying colors reflecting the future scenario under which the level of threat transitions from low to high. CT = FHF Current Trends Scenario, NCL = FHF Rapid Growth – North Central Lakes Scenario, PNW = FHF Rapid Growth – Pacific Northwest Scenario.

  9. PRESENT FUTURE 2100 Vegetation Climate Human Culture 5 Vegetation Climate Human Culture 3 4 6 Focal Taxa 1 Focal Taxa - Distribution - Suitable Habitat - Distribution - Suitable Habitat Non-focal Taxa Info (e.g. ELU’s) Priority Areas Priority Areas 7 - Core Areas - Linkages - Viability Analysis - Core Areas - Linkages - Viability Analysis 2 Movement Ecology 8 9 10 10 + 11 Robust Conservation System

  10. Step 1: Focal Species For Connectivity Lead: Gillian Woolmer, WCS Canada Estimated Completion: January 2009

  11. Step 1: Focal Species For Connectivity • Candidate Species • Home range information • Ecological functions (pollinator, predation) • Habitat types • Managements zones • Human Activities (threats)

  12. Step 2: Present Movement Ecology and Linkages • Habitat suitability analysis • Connectivity modeling tools • Cost-path analysis e.g. Corridor Design – Paul Beier • Graph theory e.g. FUNCONN – David Theobald • Circuit theory - Brad McRae Lead: Gillian Woolmer, WCS Canada Estimated Completion: December 2009

  13. PRESENT FUTURE 2100 Vegetation Climate Human Culture 5 Vegetation Climate Human Culture 3 4 6 Focal Taxa 1 Focal Taxa - Distribution - Suitable Habitat - Distribution - Suitable Habitat Non-focal Taxa Info (e.g. ELU’s) Priority Areas Priority Areas 7 - Core Areas - Linkages - Viability Analysis - Core Areas - Linkages - Viability Analysis Movement Ecology 2 8 9 10 10 + 11 Robust Conservation System

  14. Step 3: Future Climate Climate Wizard • A web based tool • Climate predictions for a defined geography • Temperature and precipitation • Uses IPCC models • TNC, University of Washington, University of Southern Mississippi Lead: Steve Trombulak Estimated Completion: November 2008

  15. Step 4: Future Human Culture Future Human Footprint (FHF) • Extend the FHF models to 2100 • Issues of defensibility of 100yr models Lead: TBD (Dr. Robert Baldwin??) Estimated Completion: TBD

  16. Step 5: Future Vegetation Goal: Model future vegetation distributions Questions to be addressed: • Are there indicator plants that can be modeled? • Which vegetative units need to be modeled? • Are there vegetation types that are critical for obligate species that require specific modeling? Considerations: • Natural disturbance regimes • Invasive species (bugs and diseases) Lead: TBD Estimated Completion: Fall 2009

  17. PRESENT FUTURE 2100 Phase 2 Workplan: Vegetation Climate Human Culture 5 Vegetation Climate Human Culture 3 4 6 Focal Taxa 1 Focal Taxa - Distribution - Suitable Habitat - Distribution - Suitable Habitat Non-focal Taxa Info (e.g. ELU’s) Priority Areas Priority Areas 7 - Core Areas - Linkages - Viability Analysis - Core Areas - Linkages - Viability Analysis 2 Movement Ecology 8 9 10 10 + 11 Robust Conservation System

  18. Step 6: Future Species Distributions 1. Select a set Focal Species 2. Use vegetation models to model future (2100) core habitat for a set of focal species Lead: TBD (Carlos Carroll, Healy Hamilton??) Estimated Completion: Spring 2010

  19. Predicted distribution for Canada Lynx (Lynx canadensis) based on the average climatic conditions of the past 50 years (1950-2000) Dr. Healy Hamilton, Center for Biodiversity Research and Information at the California Academy of Sciences

  20. Predicted Distribution of Canada Lynx (Lynx canadensis) - B1 emission scenario - 2050's Dr. Healy Hamilton, Center for Biodiversity Research and Information at the California Academy of Sciences

  21. Predicted Distribution of Canada Lynx (Lynx canadensis) - B1 emission scenario - 2090's Dr. Healy Hamilton, Center for Biodiversity Research and Information at the California Academy of Sciences

  22. PRESENT FUTURE 2100 Phase 2 Workplan: Vegetation Climate Human Culture 5 Vegetation Climate Human Culture 3 4 6 Focal Taxa 1 Focal Taxa - Distribution - Suitable Habitat - Distribution - Suitable Habitat Non-focal Taxa Info (e.g. ELU’s) Priority Areas Priority Areas 7 - Core Areas - Linkages - Viability Analysis - Core Areas - Linkages - Viability Analysis 2 Movement Ecology 8 9 10 10 + 11 Robust Conservation System

  23. Step 7: Future Core Areas Importance: • MARXAN site selection tool • Conservation elements • Vegetation models • Focal speciesdistribution models • Ecological variation – ELU’s (TNC/NCC) Threat: • Future Human Footprint (2100) Lead: Steve Trombulak and 2C1F Science Working Group Estimated Completion: TBD

  24. Physical Diversity Biological Diversity Acidic Granitic Calcareous Ultramafic Acidic Sedimentary Red Spruce Woodland Northern Hardwoods Northern Hardwoods Sparse Acidic Cliff Oak-Hickory Woodland Rich Northern Hardwoods White Pine - Northern Hardwood Forest Spruce-Fir- Tamarack Swamp Black Spruce Peatland Cedar Swamp Cattail Marsh

  25. Ecological Land Units (ELU’s) Elevation class + + Bedrock class Landform 1000 low < 1700 ft 100 Acidic Sedimentary 10’s Steep Slope 2000 mid < 1700 - 2800 ft 200 Calcareous 10 Cliff 3000 high < 2800 - 4500 ft 300 Acidic Granitic 11 Steep slope 4000 alpine > 4500 ft 400 Unique (serpentine, mafic) 12 Slope crests 13 Upper slopes – Rounded summits 14 Flat summit 20’s Side Slope Example: 20 Side slope 21 Cove or low slope 1000 low + 200 calcareous + 31 moist flat = ELU 1231 30’s Flats 30 Dry flat 31 Moist flat 32 Wet flat 33 Slope bottom flat low calcareous moist flat 40’s Aquatic 40 Stream 41 River 42 Lake / Pond 4 x 4 x 14 = 224 possible ELU’s

  26. Analyzing Physical Diversity The distribution of distinct environmental gradients across the landscape Landform Geology Elevation ELU

  27. This graph tells us that if we capture high enough targets of ELU’s (35-50%) we can likely capture medium targets for focal species, and high targets for ecosystems and rare elements when there is a lack of information about these, say in the future under climate change scenarios.

  28. Steps 8 - 9: Future Movement Ecology and Linkages Step 8: Linkages between future core areas (spatial) Step 9: Habitat movement paths as climate changes (temporal) • Assumption: habitats will move (latitude, altitude, moisture gradients) • Habitat sensitive species (obligates) will require “stepping stone” habitats or assisted migration(hoeghguldberg et al, 2008) Lead: TBD Estimated Completion: TBD

  29. Steps 10: Population Viability Analysis Question: What is the likelihood of species populations remaining viable in the ecoregion into the future? Minimum viable population (demographic/genetic sustainability)? Social dynamics? ecological function? Evolutionary potential? • Present population viability analysis based on present core and linkages areas • Future population viability analysis based on new focal species distribution models Ref: Sanderson et al (2006) “How Many Animals Do We Want to Save?.......” Lead: TBD Estimated Completion: TBD

  30. PRESENT FUTURE 2100 Vegetation Climate Human Culture 5 Vegetation Climate Human Culture 3 4 6 Focal Taxa 1 Focal Taxa - Distribution - Suitable Habitat - Distribution - Suitable Habitat Non-focal Taxa Info (e.g. ELU’s) Priority Areas Priority Areas 7 - Core Areas - Linkages - Viability Analysis - Core Areas - Linkages - Viability Analysis 2 Movement Ecology 8 9 10 10 + 11 Robust Conservation System

  31. Step 11: Robust Conservation System Lead: TBD Estimated Completion: TBD Present core area Present Linkage Future core area Future Linkage Habitat movement path

  32. PRESENT FUTURE 2100 Phase 2 Workplan: Completion 2010/2011 Vegetation Climate Human Culture 5 Vegetation Climate Human Culture 3 4 6 Focal Taxa 1 Focal Taxa - Distribution - Suitable Habitat - Distribution - Suitable Habitat Non-focal Taxa Info (e.g. ELU’s) Priority Areas Priority Areas 7 - Core Areas - Linkages - Viability Analysis - Core Areas - Linkages - Viability Analysis Movement Ecology 2 8 9 10 10 + 11 Robust Conservation System

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