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7 th SPC HOF meeting Effects of climate change on coastal fisheries

7 th SPC HOF meeting Effects of climate change on coastal fisheries.

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7 th SPC HOF meeting Effects of climate change on coastal fisheries

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  1. 7th SPC HOF meeting Effects of climate change on coastal fisheries Morgan Pratchett, Philip Munday, Nicholas Graham, Mecki Kronen*, Silvia Pinca*, Kim Friedman*, Tom Brewer, Johann Bell*, Shaun Wilson, Joshua Cinner, Jeff Kinch, Rebecca Lawton, Ashley Williams*, Lindsay Chapman*, and Franck Magron*

  2. Four categories of coastal fisheries 1. Demersal finfishes 2. Nearshore pelagics 3. Targeted invertebrates 4. Shallow sub tidal and intertidal invertebrates

  3. Main types of species considered Demersal finfishes Proportional use species

  4. Major changes in environmental conditions 1. Sea surface temperature (SST) High emissions A2 Temperature increase (oC) B1 Low emissions

  5. Redistribution of species with increased temperature Increasing latitude Decreasing temperature

  6. Redistribution of potential fisheries catch By 2050, potential fisheries catches will decline by ~40% in the tropical Pacific if species are free to move poleward with increasing temperatures (Cheung et al. 2010)

  7. Major changes in environmental conditions 1. Sea surface temperature (SST) High emissions A2 Temperature increase (oC) B1 Typical bleaching threshold Low emissions

  8. Major changes in environmental conditions 2. Coral cover Severity of declines Low emissions B1 A2 High emissions

  9. Major changes in environmental conditions 2. Coral cover Effective local management Severity of declines by teams of experts B1 A2

  10. Declines in other habitats are also expected to affect coastal fisheries Linkages between coral reefs, mangroves and seagrasses in the life cycles of coastal fish and invertebrates

  11. Fish declines exacerbated by structural collapse of coral habitats 65% decline in abundance and diversity of fishes

  12. Major changes in environmental conditions 3. Aragonite saturation (ocean acidification) Severity of declines

  13. Major changes in environmental conditions 3. Aragonite saturation (ocean acidification) Loss of skeleton for corals growing under acidified conditions (Fine and Tchernov 2007)

  14. Major changes in environmental conditions 3. Aragonite saturation (ocean acidification)

  15. 7th SPC HOF meeting Effects of climate change on coastal fisheries

  16. 7th SPC HOF meeting Effects of climate change on coastal fisheries • Coastal fisheries are sensitive to changes in • - habitat quality and quantity • - sea surface temperature • - seawater chemistry (pH) • - ocean currents and nutrient availability • Up until 2035 effects of climate change may be difficult to distinguish from sustained exploitation and habitat degradation • Effective local management will greatly reduce longer-term impacts of climate change on coastal fisheries

  17. 7th SPC HOF meeting Adaptation and management recommendations • Reverse or reduce local anthropogenic impacts that reduce the structural complexity and biological diversity of critical coastal habitats. • Keep production of demersal finfish and invertebrates within sustainable limits; rebuilding populations of over-exploited species • Diversify fishing activities (and livelihoods) to reduce reliance on fisheries species that are highly vulnerable to climate change

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