Unique NPS Courses and Thesis Research Prof. Tom Murphree

1. Unique NPS Courses and Thesis Research Prof. Tom Murphree Department of Meteorology, Naval Postgraduate School murphree@nps.edu July 2005

2. Unique NPS Meteorology Courses Prof. Tom Murphree Meteorology, Oceanography, and Military Operations (MR 2230) This course is an introduction to meteorology and oceanography from a military perspective. The emphasis throughout the course is on applying meteorology and oceanography to mitigate environmental hazards and improve performance in military operations. Each major topic is taught in the context of a specific type of military operation using historical case studies. Physical processes in the atmosphere and ocean are addressed in the context of operational limits, thresholds, and the exploitation of opportunities created by the environment. There do not appear to be any similar courses taught in the U.S. Meteorological Analysis (MR 3222) Many of the concepts and methods taught in this course involve applications to DoD-specific issues. Example: analyses of land and sea breezes applied to assessing and mitigating potential meteorological problems for aircraft carrier operations in Arabian Gulf (e.g., launch and recovery problems, best course for maintaining over wind over the deck).

3. Unique NPS Meteorology Courses Prof. Tom Murphree Modern Climatology (MR 3610) This course teaches climatology in the context of global DoD operations. There is a strong emphasis on applying modern developments in climate dynamics and operational climatology to analyzing climate patterns and processes in areas of DoD activity (e.g., SW Asia, E Asia, Horn of Africa). Several topics in this course require that students have a secret clearance. Operational Climatology (MR 4250) This course provides advanced instruction on climate analysis and forecasting, and on operational military climatology. Topics include: use of climatology in strategic to tactical level military planning; assessments of joint military climatology planning methods and products. Students in this course apply their knowledge and skills to improve existing military climatology products or develop new products. Many topics in this course require that students have a secret clearance.

4. Outline of Topics for Meteorology, Oceanography, and Military Operations (MR 2230)

5. Student Team Project Sample Modern Climatology (MR 2230) Mission Coronet MR3610 Scenario: In the event of heightened tensions with North Korea, a squadron of F-15s from Elmendorf AFB, AK will need to deploy on short notice to Gwangju AB, ROK. Their refueling aircraft will be a pair of KC-10s from Travis AFB, CA. The expected launch window is July. The fighters will have to refuel 7 times en route and must avoid areas of solid cloud and moderate or greater turbulence. Task: Provide climatological support for mission planning.

6. Student Team Project Sample Modern Climatology (MR 2230) Mean Percent Total Cloud Cover From RTNEPH, July LTM, Base Period 1984-2001. Image sources: AF Combat Climatology Center: https://notus2.afccc.af.mil/scis/ Climatological Impacts on F-15 Squadron Deployment Over North Pacific in July • Launch / Divert Bases • Thunderstorms, lightning, low ceilings likely at Elmendorf AFB • Fog/stratus along coast likely to inhibit morning tanker take-offs from Travis AFB, CA, diverts on US west coast • Air Refueling • Clouds likely to impede refueling along storm track • Winds much weaker at flight level, thus decreasing turbulence risk

7. Student Team Project Sample Modern Climatology (MR 2230) Climatological Impacts on ISR Operations Over Korean Peninsula in July • Key climatological factors for Korea in July (see accompanying maps of SLP, Z850, chi, OLR, • clouds, and precipitation): • Low level low over China, high over North Pacific • Warm moist inflow from the south along boundary between low and high Reference for METOC Criteria : JP 3-59. Joint Doctrine, Tactics, Techniques, and Procedure for Meteorological and Oceanographic Support. 23 Mar. 1999.

8. Course Material for Operational Climatology (MR 4250) Navy Example *See notes view for additional information Developed by the Operations Officer of NCMOC Bahrain –from LTjg James T. Uncapher

9. Course Material for OperationalClimatology (MR 4250) *See notes view for additional information

10. Student Team Project Sample OperationalClimatology (MR 4250) Operational Impacts on Taiwan Military Operations From Anomalous Climatological Events *Conditions slightly improved for NE Taiwan due to decreased monsoonal flow.

11. Invited Military Presentations in NPS Climatology Courses (MR 3610 and MR 4250) Military Applications of Smart Climatology Col D. Smarsh, USAF Climatology in Joint Operational Planning Capt J. Hernandez and Capt D. Wunder, USAF Climatology in Support of Naval War Fighters LCDR B. Ford, USN Operational Climatology in the U.S. Air Force Capt J. Jarry, USAF Operational Typhoon Climatology for Western North Pacific Air Bases Capt K. Burton, USAF Operational Climatology in OIF Capt Chris Weaver, USAF Development of DoD Climatology Briefs Maj Karen Darnell and Maj Mark LaJoie, USAF

12. Recent DoD Relevant Thesis Research Supervised by Prof. Tom Murphree • LCDR A. Cantu, USN, 2001. The Role of Weather in Class A Naval Aviation Mishaps. Masters of Science Thesis, Naval Postgraduate School. Co-Advisors: C. Wash and T. Murphree • LCDR B. Martin, USN, 2002. METOC and Naval Afloat Operations: Risk Management, Safety, and Readiness. Masters of Science Thesis, Naval Postgraduate School. Advisor: T. Murphree, Co-Advisor: C. Wash. • LCDR J. Hinz, USN, 2004. Developing and Applying METOC Metrics to Sea Strike: A Case Study of Operation Iraqi Freedom. Masters of Science Thesis, Naval Postgraduate School. Advisor: T. Murphree, Co-Advisor: C. Wash. • Capt. J. Anderson, USAF, 2004. An Analysis of a Dust Storm Impacting Operation Iraqi Freedom, 25-27 March 2003. Masters of Science Thesis, Naval Postgraduate School. Advisor: C. Wash, Second Reader: T. Murphree. • Capt. J. Jarry, USAF, 2005. Analysis of Air Mobility Command Weather Mission Execution Forecasts: Metrics of Forecast Performance and Impacts on War Fighting Operations. Masters of Science Thesis, Naval Postgraduate School. Advisor: T. Murphree, Co-Advisor: Col. D. Smarsh. • LCDR M. Butler, USN, 2005. Automated Metrics of METOC Forecast Performance and Operational Impacts. Masters of Science Thesis, Naval Postgraduate School. Advisor: T. Murphree. In progress. Advisor: T. Murphree • Maj K. Darnell, 2006. Analysis of Weather Forecast Impacts on Air Combat Command Operations. Masters of Science Thesis, Naval Postgraduate School. Advisor: T. Murphree, Co-Advisor: Col. D. Smarsh. In progress. Advisor: T. Murphree, Co-Advisor: Col. D. Smarsh.

13. Thesis Research: METOC Forecast Performance and Operational Impacts Web Based System for Real Time Analysis of Military Weather Forecasts and Their Operational Impacts From NPS thesis research of LCDR Mark Butler, USN, 2005

14. Thesis Research: METOC Forecast Performance and Operational Impacts Operational Impacts of Weather Forecasts Provided to Naval Strike and Air Warfare Center, NAS Fallon From NPS thesis research of LCDR Mark Butler, USN, 2005

15. For official use only Thesis Research: METOC Forecast Performance and Operational Impacts False Alarm Rate for No Go (Red) Mission Execution Forecasts Issued by Air Mobility Command Combat Weather Teams, FY04 Minimum Performance Benchmark? Target Benchmark? From NPS thesis research of Capt Jeff Jarry, USAF, 2005 For official use only

16. For official use only Thesis Research: METOC Forecast Performance and Operational Impacts Air Mobility Command WXM Unit, FY 2004 Number of Weather Mitigation Actions Taken by Operators Estimated Number of Missions Saved Estimated Number of Unnecessary Actions Taken 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 APR OCT NOV DEC JAN MAR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP FY04 AVG FEB Saved Mission: a. No Go forecast for original plan is accurate b. Go forecast for accepted mitigation plan is accurate. c. Mission successful using mitigation plan, and would have failed using original plan. From NPS thesis research of Capt Jeff Jarry, USAF, 2005 For official use only

17. Thesis Research: METOC Forecast Performance and Operational Impacts FOUO Mitigation Rate Correlated to Weather Delays • Mitigation rate = weather mitigation recommendations accepted by mission planners divided by mitigation recommendations provided • Correlation coefficient -0.48, 93% certainty  planners do better when they accept forecasters’ weather mitigation recommendations Kandahar Push From NPS thesis research of Capt Jeff Jarry, USAF, 2005 FOUO

18. Thesis Research: METOC Forecast Performance and Operational Impacts Operation Iraqi Freedom Forecast Accuracy for Mission Type X, Location Y Late March Dust Storm % fcst accuracy for al RYG fcsts forecast lead time Early April Dust Storm % fcst accuracy for al RYG fcsts forecast lead time From NPS thesis research of LCDR Jake Hinz, USN, 2004 For official use only

19. Thesis Research: METOC Forecast Performance and Operational Impacts OIF Aviation Sorties: Plans and Outcomes Dust Storm For official use only From NPS thesis research of LCDR Jake Hinz, USN, 2004

20. Thesis Research: Weather and Major Naval Aviation Mishaps Weather Related Class A Mishaps and Flight Phase, FY 90-98 38% From NPS thesis research of LCDR Alex Cantu, USN, 2001

21. Thesis Research: Weather and Major Naval Aviation Mishaps Weather Related Class A Mishaps and Types of Human Error, FY 90-98 39% 33% 41% 37% From NPS thesis research of LCDR Alex Cantu, USN, 2001

22. Supplemental Slides The NPS catalog does not yet list the two climatology courses. So I have provided the course descriptions in the next two slides.

23. Modern Climatology, MR 3610 Quarter Units: 4 Instructor: Prof. Tom Murphree Course Description Introductory investigations of Earth’s climate system. Long term mean temporal and spatial patterns, and seasonal cycles at global, regional, and local scales, with an emphasis on areas of DoD interest. Dynamic and thermodynamic processes that govern the climate system (e.g., atmosphere-ocean-land interactions, large scale, low frequency waves, teleconnections). Intraseasonal to decadal climate variations (e.g., anomalous temperature, pressure, and precipitation patterns; Madden-Julian Oscillation; El Nino/La Nina/Southern Oscillation; North Atlantic Oscillation/Arctic Oscillation). Impacts of climate variations on weather systems, and the role of climatology in weather analysis and forecasting. Introduction to the use of climatology in planning and conducting military operations with case studies from regions of DoD interest. Some aspects of this course may require that students have a secret clearance. The course focuses on the atmospheric component of the climate system, but the oceanic and/or land components will be addressed in greater depth if there is sufficient student interest. Pre-requisites: MR 3321 and 3222, or a more advanced course (e.g., MR 3234, MR 3252), or consent of instructor.

24. OperationalClimatology, MR 4250 Quarter Units: 3 Instructor: Prof. Tom Murphree Course Description This course addresses advanced topics in operational climatology and military applications of climatology. Topics include: (1) statistical, dynamical, and numerical modeling methods used in operational climate analysis and forecasting; (2) advanced analyses of regional and local climate patterns and processes in areas of DoD interest; (3) strategic implications of long term global climate change; (4) role of climatology in strategic to tactical level planning of military operations; (5) assessments of NOAA, Air Force, and Navy climatology methods and products; (6) evaluation of joint military climatology planning methods and products; and (7) student development of military climatology products based on civilian and military methods and products. This course places a strong emphasis on the applications of climate science to military operations. Some aspects of this course may require that students have a secret clearance. The course focuses on the atmospheric component of the climate system, but the oceanic and/or land components will be addressed in greater depth if there is sufficient student interest. Prerequisite: Students are strongly encouraged to take MR 3610 before MR 4250, or to get the consent of the instructor.