NPS Smart Climatology: Support for Naval Warfare Tom Murphree, Ph.D.

1. NPS Smart Climatology: Support for Naval Warfare Tom Murphree, Ph.D. Naval Postgraduate School (NPS) murphree@nps.edu http://wx.met.nps.navy.mil/smart-climo/reports.php Brief Presented to ASW Directorate CNMOC, 05 January 2007 Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jan 07

2. Co-Authors • Tom Murphree, NPS • Mark LaJoie, Maj, USAF • Adam Stepanek, Capt, USAF • Damon Vorhees, Capt, USAF • Bruce Ford (USN retired), Clear Science, Inc. • Joel Feldmeier, LCDR, USN • Karl Pfeiffer, Lt Col, USAF • Chuck Wash, NPS • Chris Hanson, Capt, USAF • Sarah Moss, 1st Lt, USAF • Katherine Twigg, Lt, Royal Navy • Coordination and Collaboration • Air Force Weather Agency • Air Force Combat Climatology Center • Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Detachment • Other Naval METOC and Air Force Weather units • Civilian climate research & operational climatology organizations Note: The NPS Smart Climatology program is not part of the FY06 RTP smart climatology project. Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jan 07

3. Problems and Causes • DoD lacks state-of-the-art climatological support. • Typical development of military climo products excludes many modern methods of climate analysis and forecasting. • Military climatology products often fail to account for recent advances in development and use of climate: • data sets • data access / mining / processing tools • data analysis and reanalysis • downscaling • modeling • monitoring • forecasting Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jan 07

4. Precip Rate Anomaly, 1-15Feb05 Aerial View Precip Fig mm/d Shortfalls in Existing Climatology Products Heavy Precipitation and Flooding, Afghanistan & Pakistan, 1-15 Feb 2005 • Precip, temp, snowmelt, and runoff anomalies had large impacts on DoD operations. • Almost no DoD climo products available or suitable for explaining, monitoring, or forecasting these anomalies or operational impacts. • Problem with DoD climo products even worse for ocean. From NPS thesis research by Capt D. Vorhees, USAF; 2006. Advisors: T. Murphree and Lt Col K. Pfeiffer. Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jan 07

5. Proposed Solutions • Smart climatology State-of-the-art basic and applied climatology that directly supports DoD operations • Long term smart climatologyprogram to: • Educate Naval METOC and AFW personnel on smart climo • Develop and apply smart climo methods • --- including adaptation of civilian sector methods • Develop smart climo operational products • Transition methods and products to operational use NPS is conducting a long term smart climatology program to help meet these needs. Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jan 07

6. Smart Climatology at NPS • Brief History • NPS has conducted basic and applied research in atmospheric andoceanic • climate for the last several decades. During that time, the emphasis on • military applications of climate science has steadily increased. • In 2003, NPS began a smart climatology program with four main components: • Education • Basic and Applied Research • Prototype Operational Product Development • Product Transitioning • An overview and selected reports, briefs, and articles representing our work • since 2000 are available at: • NPS Smart Climatology Overview • http://wx.met.nps.navy.mil/smart-climo/index.php • NPS Smart Climatology Reports • http://wx.met.nps.navy.mil/smart-climo/reports.php Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jan 07

7. Benefits of Smart Climatology • Climatologycontributes to short term environmental analysis and forecasting: • Climatology-based forecasts of short term conditions • Model ICs, BCs, and parameterizations • Ensemble forecast assessment • Model selection • Regime-based analysis and forecasting • TDAs • FRNs • Forecast skill assessments • Uncertainty assessment and risk management • So, expect smart climatology products to improve: • analysis / forecasting of both climate and short term conditions • allocation of METOC resources • support for combatant commanders at all planning levels • --- strategic, operational, and tactical Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jan 07

8. Gaps in Climatological Support – ASW Example Present Level of METOC Effort in Support of ASW Planning In ASW, relatively little effort is presently devoted to METOC support at leads of 1 week to 2 months (i.e., intraseasonal climo support). This dip in METOC support occurs as ASW commanders are making operational plans and major decisions about resource allocation. Thus, improving intraseasonalclimo support could lead to significant improvements in ASW operations. Level of Effort COCOM Battlespace Prep Survey Program TAS TOS Mission execution briefs OPLAN/CONPLAN Studies Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jan 07 Years Months Weeks Days Hours Strategic Operational Tactical From ASW Coordination/CONOPS Conf 14 Mar 05; CAPT Jeff Best, CNMOC Director for ASW; CDR Van Gurley, CNMOC Deputy Director for ASW

9. Gaps in Climatological Support – ASW Example Level of METOC Effort Versus Level of Potential Impact on Operations Operational PlanningTeam Engagement MissionPlanning Cell Engagement OPLAN/CONPLAN Development EnvironmentalReconnaissance EnvironmentalReconstruction and Analysis Level of Impact Level of Effort COCOM Battlespace Prep Survey Program TAS TOS Mission execution briefs OPLAN/CONPLAN Studies Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jan 07 Years Months Weeks Days Hours Strategic Operational Tactical From ASW Coordination/CONOPs Conf 14 Mar 05; CAPT Jeff Best, CNMOC Director for ASW; CDR Van Gurley, CNMOC Deputy Director for ASW

10. Gaps in Climatological Support – ASW Example More effort in intraseasonal climatology could significantly improve operational effectiveness. Ideally, this would be a smart climatology effort. Operational PlanningTeam Engagement MissionPlanning Cell Engagement OPLAN/CONPLAN Development EnvironmentalReconnaissance EnvironmentalReconstruction and Analysis Level of Impact Level of Effort COCOM Battlespace Prep Survey Program TAS TOS Mission execution briefs OPLAN/CONPLAN Studies Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jan 07 Years Months Weeks Days Hours Strategic Operational Tactical From ASW Coordination/CONOPs Conf 14 Mar 05; CAPT Jeff Best, CNMOC Director for ASW; CDR Van Gurley, CNMOC Deputy Director for ASW

11. Gaps in Climatological Support – ASW Example Funds for intraseasonal climo support may need to come from other types of support (e.g., short range support that may come too late to be as effectively used by combatant commanders as intraseasonal climo support). In this case, the pointy end of the spear may be better sharpened well ahead of time, rather than right before the battle begins. Level of Impact Level of Effort Trade Space Opportunity COCOM Battlespace Prep Survey Program TAS TOS Mission execution briefs OPLAN/CONPLAN Studies Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jan 07 Years Months Weeks Days Hours Strategic Operational Tactical From ASW Coordination/CONOPs Conf 14 Mar 05; CAPT Jeff Best, CNMOC Director for ASW; CDR Van Gurley, CNMOC Deputy Director for ASW

12. NPS Smart Climatology – Program Outline • Implement Educational Program • Two smart climo courses taught since summer 2004. Both emphasize basic climate science, operational climo, and military applications. • Develop Research Products • Analysis and forecast systems for assessing regional impacts of climate variations: El Nino, La Nina, Madden-Julian Oscillation, Indian Ocean Zonal Mode, North Atlantic Oscillation • Focus regions: • SWA, HOA, east Asia, North Pacific (western, tropical, northeastern), • North America • 3. Develop Prototype Operational Products • Smart climo process for use by forecasters • Regional analyses and narratives based on climate variations • Operational impactsassessments • In progress: • climate indices for SWA, NW IO, HOA • statistical climate forecasts for SWA, NW IO, HOA • web-based delivery with updated climate monitoring • Transition Products to DoD Operational Centers. Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jan 07

13. NPS Smart Climatology - Education Modern Climatology, MR 3610 Quarter Units: 4 Instructor: Prof. Tom Murphree Introductory investigation of Earth’s climate system. Long term mean temporal and spatial patterns, and seasonal cycles at global, regional, and local scales, with an emphasis on areas of DoD interest. Dynamic and thermodynamic processes that govern the climate system (e.g., atmosphere-ocean-land interactions, large scale, low frequency waves, teleconnections). Intraseasonal to decadal climate variations (e.g., anomalous temperature, pressure, and precipitation patterns; Madden-Julian Oscillation; El Nino/La Nina/Southern Oscillation; North Atlantic Oscillation/Arctic Oscillation). Impacts of climate variations on weather systems, and the role of climatology in weather analysis and forecasting. Introduction to the use of climatology in planning and conducting military operations with case studies from regions of DoD interest. Some aspects of this course may require that students have a secret clearance. The course focuses on the atmospheric component of the climate system, but also addresses the oceanic component at some length. The oceanic and/or land components will be addressed in greater depth if there is sufficient student interest. Pre-requisites: MR 3321 and 3222 (or equivalent courses form another university), a more advanced course (e.g., MR 3234, MR 3252), or consent of instructor. Course materials available on course web site. Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jan 07

14. NPS Smart Climatology - Education AdvancedClimatology, MR 4250 Quarter Units: 3 Instructor: Prof. Tom Murphree This course addresses advanced topics in operational climatology and military applications of climatology. The topics may vary with each offering, especially in response to student interests. Topics include: (1) statistical, dynamical, and numerical modeling methods used in operational climate analysis and forecasting; (2) advanced analyses of regional and local climate patterns and processes in areas of DoD interest; (3) strategic implications of long term global climate change; (4) role of climatology in strategic to tactical level planning of military operations; (5) assessments of NOAA, Air Force, and Navy climatology methods and products; (6) evaluation of joint military climatology planning tools; and (7) student development of climatology products and planning tools based on civilian and military methods and products. For fall 2006, one of the main topics will be Southwest Asia climate, especially climatological patterns and processes, interactions between weather and climate phenomena, and climate predictions, in particular, predictions for military operations. This course places a strong emphasis on the applications of climate science to military operations. Some aspects of this course may require that students have a secret clearance. The course focuses on the atmospheric component of the climate system, but also addresses the oceanic component at some length. The oceanic and/or land components will be addressed in greater depth if there is sufficient student interest. Pre-requisites: MR 3321 and 3222 (or equivalent courses form another university), a more advanced course (e.g., MR 3234, MR 3252), or consent of instructor. Students are also strongly encouraged, but are not required, to take MR 3610 before MR 4250. Course materials available on course web site. Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jan 07

15. NPS Smart Climatology - Education Military Applications of Smart Climatology Col D. Smarsh, USAF Climatology in Joint Operational Planning Capt J. Hernandez and Capt D. Wunder, USAF Smart Climatology in Support of Naval War Fighters LCDR B. Ford, USN Operational Climatology in the U.S. Air Force Capt J. Jarry, USAF Operational Typhoon Climatology for Western North Pacific Air Bases Capt K. Burton, USAF Operational Climatology in OIF Capt Chris Weaver, USAF Development of Smart Climatology Briefs for DoD Planning Maj Karen Darnell and Maj Mark LaJoie, USAF Invited Presentations on Military Climatology Briefs available on course web sites. Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jan 07

16. NPS Smart Climatology - Education Manas IAP Incirlik AB Bagram AB Herat Kandahar Slide from NPS climatology course AR ‘B’ Map courtesy of the AFCCC Strategic Climatic Information Service Climo Course Team Project Scenario: Operation T-Day Mission: Provide climo planning support for night time aerial operations to destroy large terrorist training camp in Afghanistan. Missions will launch from bases in Turkey, Diego Garcia, and Afghanistan. Launch Window: 19-28 Nov 2004 Lead time: One month Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jan 07 Diego Garcia

17. NPS Smart Climatology - Education Manas IAP c x v c x v Incirlik AB c x v Bagram AB Herat Kandahar Slide from NPS climatology course c x v Team Project Report - More southerly storm track will result in possible takeoff delays for tankers leaving Incirlik - Tankers leaving Incirlik will see increased turbulence over Iraq and the northern Persian Gulf - Manas can expect increased precipitation - Bagram will see increased frequency of low ceilings and low visibility as well as crosswinds that may hinder Predator ops - Visibility for helos out of Kandahar will potentially be adversely affected by low clouds enroute; result: potential mission cancellation AR ‘B’ Map courtesy of the AFCCC Strategic Climatic Information Service Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jan 07 No expected enroute weather impacts Expected enroute weather impacts to airframe may require mission rescheduling Enroute weather impacts exceed allowed criteria; reschedule mission c Ceiling Visibility Crosswinds c x v v x Diego Garcia

18. Team Project Report Slide from NPS climatology course Thresholds based on AFWA/TN-98/002 Revised 13 June 2003 Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jan 07

19. NPS Smart Climatology – Research Mechanisms that Lead to Above Normal Precip and Temp in SWA Above Normal Precip and Temp L Below Normal Tropical Convection H • Typical low level anomaly pattern during above normal precip and temp in SWA. • Caused by climate variations and teleconnections (specific phases of El Nino/La Nina, Indian Ocean Zonal Mode, Madden-Julian Oscillation, and/or North Atlantic Oscillation). • Climate variation reversal oppositeanomalies in SWA. • Climate variations predictable  SWA precip and temp predictable • In progress: Climate monitoring indices and forecasting systems based on climate variation analyses. From NPS thesis research by Capt D. Vorhees, USAF, 2006. Advisors: Prof. T. Murphree and Lt Col K. Pfeiffer. Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jan 07

20. NPS Smart Climatology – Research Impacts of Multiple Climate Variations Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) Only Anomalous Z 200 and long wave patterns, MJO Phase 3, Oct-Mar MJO + El Nino MJO + La Nina • Climate variations alter tropical and extratropical long wave patterns, which in turn alter synoptic activity • Simultaneous climate variations interfere with each other. • Major interference over regions of DoD interest (SWA, East Asia, CONUS). • Multivariate analysis and forecasting required. From NPS thesis research by Capt A. Stepanek, USAF, 2006. Advisors: T. Murphree and C. Wash. Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jan 07

21. NPS Smart Climatology - Research Upper Ocean Currents, Nov-Mar, Long Term Mean (LTM) 15 cm/s Results based on 45-year global ocean reanalysis. Note LTM poleward coastal currents along east Asia. From Ford and Murphree (2007) Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jan 07

22. NPS Smart Climatology - Research Upper Ocean Current Anomalies, Nov-Mar, During El Nino Periods 6 cm/s Note substantial strengthening (20-50% increase) of poleward coastal currents during El Nino periods compared to LTM. From Ford and Murphree (2007) Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jan 07

23. 1 cm/s NPS Smart Climatology - Research Upper Ocean Currents, Nov-Mar, Long Term Mean Note LTM inflow in Gulf Of Oman, Strait of Hormuz. From Ford and Murphree (2007) Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jan 07

24. 3 cm/s NPS Smart Climatology - Research Upper Ocean Current Anomalies, Nov-Mar, During La Nina Periods Note reversal of inflow in much of Gulf Of Oman. From Ford and Murphree (2007) Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jan 07

25. NPS Smart Climatology - Research Strong Aleutian Low and Weak N Pacific High, Nov-Mar Weak Aleutian Low and Strong N Pacific High, Nov-Mar • Coastal anomalies: • SSH low • currents S-ward • Coastal anomalies: • SSH high • currents N-ward Results based on 45-year global ocean reanalysis, compositing by SLP index (NEPI). From Ford and Murphree (2007) Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jan 07

26. NPS Smart Climatology - Research Strong Aleutian Low and Weak N Pacific High, Nov-Mar Weak Aleutian Low and Strong N Pacific High, Nov-Mar Take home message: climate variations in atmospheric forcing strongly affect upper ocean structure, circulation, and acoustic properties – as well as sea state and weather. • Coastal anomalies: • SSH low • currents S-ward • Coastal anomalies: • SSH high • currents N-ward Results based on 45-year global ocean reanalysis, compositing by SLP index (NEPI). From Ford and Murphree (2007) Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jan 07

27. NPS Smart Climatology - Research Model LN Currents Model EN Currents a b Figures from: Feldmeier, J., 2005. Climatic Variations of the California Current System: Application of Smart Climatology to the Coastal Ocean. Masters of Science Thesis, Naval Postgraduate School, September 2005. Advisors: Profs. T. Murphree and R. Tokmakian. Model LN Current Anomaly Model EN Current Anomaly c d Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jan 07

28. NPS Smart Climatology - Research El Nino J m-2 10-6 La Nina Upper Ocean Thermal Energy Anomalies, 0-250 m, Aug-Nov • Results based on 45-year global ocean reanalysis, and compositing of EN and LN • periods. • Upper ocean thermal energy anomalies closely related to anomalies in: thermocline • depth, SSTs, SSHs, currents, surface waves, SVP, SLD, surface heat and moisture • fluxes, humidity, atmospheric convection, etc. From Murphree and Ford (2007) Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jan 07

29. NPS Smart Climatology - Research H Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jan 07 L Anomalies in Large Scale Circulation and TC Activity, Aug-Nov L H El Nino El Nino L H H L La Nina La Nina Upper tropospheric height anomalies associated with El Nino (EN) and La Nina (LN) periods. These height anomalies indicate anomalies in steering flow for tropical cyclones (TCs)., with more recurving TCs during EN and more straight runners during LN. This indicates that, for example, Taiwan (Korea) is more likely to be hit by TCs during LN (EN) years. NPS researchers have shownthat TC formation sites, tracks, and intensities are affected by EN and LN climate variations that are not accounted for in LTM climatologies. Figures from Ford, B., 2000. El Nino and La Nina Events, and Tropical Cyclones: Impacts and Mechanisms. Masters of Science Thesis, Naval Postgraduate School. Advisor: T. Murphree.

30. NPS Smart Climatology – Prototype Operational Products Impacts on Military Operations, Straits of Taiwan, October Green = favorable for indicated operations / mission Yellow = marginal for indicated operation / mission *Conditions slightly improved for NE Taiwan due to decreased monsoonal flow. Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jan 07

31. NPS Smart Climatology – Prototype Operational Products Camp Lemonier U.S. Embassy http://maps.google.com/ http://www.lib.utexas.edu/maps/united_states.html “Noncombatant evacuation operations (NEOs) are conducted to assist the Department of State (DOS) in evacuating noncombatants, nonessential military personnel, selected host-nation citizens, and third country nationals whose lives are in danger from locations in a host foreign nation to an appropriate safe haven and/or the United States. NEOs usually involve swift insertions of a force, temporary occupation of an objective, and a planned withdrawal upon completion of the mission.” JP3-07.5, “Joint Tactics, Techniques and Procedures for Noncombatant Evacuation Operations” • Scenario/Assumptions: Intel estimates indicate that the potential exists for a military coup in Ethiopia, which would necessitate the rapid evacuation of 150+ embassy personnel, plus an equal number of U.S. civilian expatriates (students, businesspeople). The USCENTCOM METOC (USAF O3) is tasked to develop a climatological assessment for a possible NEO during the Oct-Nov timeframe. A NEO CONPLAN is in development. The O3 recently read an NPS thesis discussing climate variations and military impacts in the HOA, and decides to use it as a guide for the assessment. • Intermediate Staging Base (ISB)/Safe Haven: Camp Lemonier, Djibouti, alternate USN ship. • Forces: MH53 Pave Lows, C130, RQ1-B Predator UAVs plus tankers & ground operations support From NPS thesis research by Maj M. LaJoie, USAF, 2006. Advisors: T. Murphree and Lt Col K. Pfeiffer. Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jan 07

32. NPS Smart Climatology – Prototype Operational Products Typical:October–November is the “short rains” season in the Horn of Africa, characterized by extensive cloud decks, showers and isolated, afternoon thunderstorms. For typical years in the Addis Ababa area, moderate impacts to collections and RQ1B operations are assessed in October and early November, improving to mostly favorable after the mid-November end of the rainy season. RQ1B launch and recovery operations out of Camp Lemonier are assessed as favorable overall, with occasional impacts from afternoon crosswinds and extreme afternoon temperatures exceeding operational thresholds. El Nino:A strong El Nino event would tend to increase showers, cloud cover and thunderstorm activity in October-November. ISR impacts will tend to worse than in the typical year. Assessment for ISR is moderate to occasionally unfavorable. Assessment of RQ1B launch and recovery operations out of Camp Lemonier remains the same as in typical years. La Nina:A strong La Nina event would tend to suppress showers, cloud cover and thunderstorm activity during Oct-Nov. ISR impacts will tend to general improvement over typical years. Assessment for ISR is the same as for the typical year, but expect thunderstorm and shower frequency to decrease. Assessment of RQ1B launch and recovery operations out of Camp Lemonier remains the same as in typical years. Legend • Cloud cover 2. Precipitation 3. Winds 4. Temperature From NPS thesis research by Maj M. LaJoie, USAF, 2006. Advisors: T. Murphree and Lt Col K. Pfeiffer. Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jan 07

33. NPS Smart Climatology – Prototype Operational Products • Sample prototype product developed by students for NPS climo course project on development and use of climo forecasts. • Impacts assessments based on climo forecasts complicated by uncertainties in climate forecasts and translation of forecasts to impacts. Thresholds based on AFWA/TN-98/002 Revised 13 June 2003. Red = worse than normal, white = normal, green = better than normal. Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jan 07

34. NPS Smart Climatology – Climate Support Process Process to be used by forecasters in developing smart climatology products for military customers. Details and applications in NPS thesis by Maj. Mark LaJoie, USAF (2006). From NPS thesis research by Maj M. LaJoie, USAF, 2006. Advisors: Prof. T. Murphree and Lt Col K. Pfeiffer. Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jan 07

35. Smart Climatology - Alternatives for Improving Ocean Climo One approach to improving on traditional LTM ocean climatology: Assimilate near real time observations (remotely sensed and in situ) In Situ Data LTM Climatology Dynamic MODAS From Feldmeier (2005), adapted from Fox et al. (2002) Ocean temperature, depth vs. latitude cross sections Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jan 07

36. Smart Climatology - Alternatives for Improving Ocean Climo One approach to improving on traditional LTM ocean climatology: Assimilate near real time observations (remotely sensed and in situ). In Situ Data LTM Climatology Dynamic MODAS Less realistic Less expensive More realistic More expensive • Is the greater realism worth the greater cost? • Is there a faster and less expensive way to improve realism? Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jan 07

37. Smart Climatology - Alternatives for Improving Ocean Climo One other, and more fundamental, approach to improving LTM climo: First apply smart climo methods of analysis and forecasting. Smart Climo In Situ Data LTM Climatology Dynamic MODAS Analysis and forecasting products based on smart climo data sets and methods Less realistic Less expensive More realistic More expensive • Smart climo is relatively inexpensive, in part because it does not • have to be repeated in full for every new operation. • Smart climo can help focus, and reduce the costs, of collecting • and assimilating near real time observations. Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jan 07

38. Smart Climatology - Alternatives for Improving Ocean Climo • Proposal --- Based on NPS Climate Support Process • Well before mission planning begins, develop background smart climo products using smart climo data and methods **. • When mission planning begins, assess the current state of climate system. If indicated by current state, develop updated smart climo products by using smart climo data and methods to adjust pre-planning smart climo. • Assimilate near real time observations (remote and in situ) into planning smart climo, according to resource availability and operational priorities. • ** Smart Climo Data and Methods • Reanalysis and other advanced data sets • Statistical and dynamical analyses • Statistical and dynamical downscaling • Statistical and dynamical climate modeling • Climate system monitoring • Statistical and dynamical climate forecasting Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jan 07

39. Smart Climatology – Product Development & Applications Assess normal conditions (LTMs) Identify climate variations Create state-of-the-art climo analyses and forecasts based on blend of normal conditions and variations Translate analyses and forecasts to operational impacts Provide on-demand access via SIPR/NIPR Provide tailored input to improve long range planning Provide climo input to improve weather analysis and forecasting Support combatant commander decision making at all levels • Many elements already exist in basic form, but smart climo components are missing. • Key components not shown: verification processes and userfeedback. Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jan 07

40. NPS Smart Climatology – Program Partners • NPS Faculty • Climatology education (intro, advanced, and short courses) • R&D expertise • Develop collaborations, obtain funding • Provide long term program leadership • NPS Students • Operational experience • Course projects • Thesis research • Labor costs (already covered) • Future operational partners • Operational Partners in Naval METOC and Air Force Weather • Operational requirements and capabilities • Partners in identifying problems and potential solutions • Sources of data and R&D expertise • Transitioning partners • Test beds and feedback Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jan 07

41. NPS Smart Climatology – Potential Naval Warfare Initiatives • NPS – CNMOC Smart Climo Partnerships • Develop partnerships with directorates with most to gain from smart climo  ASW, MIW, NSW, ISR • Identify key educational, research, product development, and transitioning needs. • Match needs with scientific, labor, and financial resources. • Education and Training Partnerships • Develop full-length and short courses on smart climo • Deliver courses In-person at NPS and PDC, and online to students around globe • Develop materials in collaboration with directorates, including strong operational focus Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jan 07

42. NPS Smart Climatology – Potential Naval Warfare Initiatives • Research, Development, and Transitioning Partnerships --- ASW Example • Characterize major climate variations in region X, including upper ocean and atmospheric variations critical in ASW operations. • Potential focus issues: environmental impacts on: • non-acoustic detection methods • acoustic-active detection methods • acoustic-passive detection methods • operability (e.g., weather and sea state impacts on operations of ships, helos, P3s) • Develop operational products for: • monitoring and predicting the climate variations • assessing impacts of climate variations on ASW operations • Transition products to METOC centers for ASW support. Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jan 07

43. NPS Smart Climatology – Potential Naval Warfare Initiatives • Research, Development, and Transitioning Partnerships --- ASW Example • Leverage NPS thesis research projects for project research, development, and transitioning (reduced costs, improved implementation). • Incorporate scientific and operational results into education and training materials. Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jan 07

44. Smart Climatology – Proposed Roles for CNMOC • Advocacy • Raise awareness of what smart climo is and what it can do to improve operational outcomes • Help develop links on smart climo between NPS and CNMOC • Assistance in establishing: • Smart climo working group • Smart climo advisory board • Assistance in establishing smart climo as an NPS thesis research priority • Smart climo topics (oceanographic and meteorological) on future thesis topics lists • Guidance to NPS students (e.g., emails, briefs to students) • Support for smart climo R&D funding • Small funding levels can achieve a lot when leveraged against NPS faculty and student resources • Useful levels: $10-20k and up Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jan 07

45. NPS Smart Climatology - Reports 44 Reports available to view and download at: http://wx.met.nps.navy.mil/smart-climo/ Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jan 07

46. Overview NPS Smart Climatology Program Tom Murphree, Ph.D. The typical process of developing military climatology products relies heavily on traditional methods of climate analysis, and excludes many modern methods of climate analysis and forecasting.  This means that very few military climatology products account for climate variations (e.g., El Nino, Madden-Julian Oscillation), or for the many advances over the last 30 years in climate data sets, monitoring, analysis, modeling, and forecasting.  Thus, Air Force Weather and Naval METOC units, and the combatant commanders they serve, lack state-of-the-art climatological support.  To address this shortcoming, we are conducting a long term program to develop, adapt, and transition to operational use systems for developing state-of-the-art military climatology, also known as smart climatology.  Our goal is to assist in closing the gap between (a) present climatological support for military operations and (b) the support that is achievable through the application of modern methods of climate analysis and forecasting.  Because of the wide application of climatology in the development of both climate and weather products, we expect smart climatology products to benefit combatant commanders at all planning levels (strategic, operational, and tactical). The primary goals of our smart climatology program are to: (1) develop scientific products for use in developing operational products; (2) develop operational planning products based on the scientific products; and (3) deliver scientific and operational products via a web-based (net-centric) platform.  Our primary scientific products are analyses of the regional atmospheric and oceanic impacts of climate variations (e.g., El Nino, La Nina, Madden-Julian Oscillation, Indian Ocean Zonal Mode, North Atlantic Oscillation).  The focus regions for our work thus far are southwest Asia (SWA), the Horn of Africa, east Asia, the western tropical North Pacific, the northeast Pacific, and North America.  Our main operational products are prototype assessments of operational impacts derived from: (a) our climate analyses; and (b) applying a set of forecaster guidelines that we have developed for providing smart climatology support.  We have recently begun a climate forecasting effort based on our climate analyses for SWA and using composite analysis methods.  We are currently developing web-based methods of product delivery. Our program is based on a collaboration of Naval Postgraduate School (NPS) faculty and staff, Air Force and Navy students at NPS, and climate research and development contractors.  We are also coordinating and collaborating in our smart climatology efforts with the Air Force Combat Climatology Center, Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Detachment Asheville, and civilian colleagues in climate research and operational climatology.  Reports on our program are available at: http://wx.met.nps.navy.mil/smart-climo/reports.php For more information on the NPS Smart Climatology Program, please contact the program director, Dr. Tom Murphree at: murphree@nps.edu Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jan 07

47. References - 1 Feldmeier, J., 2005. Climatic Variations of the California Current System: Application of Smart Climatology to the Coastal Ocean. Masters of Science Thesis, Naval Postgraduate School, September 2005. Advisors: Profs. T. Murphree and R. Tokmakian. Ford, B., and T. Murphree, 2007. SmartClimatology in Support of Naval Warfare. Naval Postgraduate School Technical Report, in review. Ford, B., 2000. El Nino and La Nina Events, and Tropical Cyclones: Impacts and Mechanisms. Masters of Science Thesis, Naval Postgraduate School, June 2000. Advisor: Prof. Tom Murphree. Fox, D.N., C.N. Barron, M.R. Carnes, M. Booda, G. Peggion, and J.V. Gurley, 2002b: The Modular Ocean Data Assimilation System (MODAS), Oceanography, 15(1), 22-28. Hildebrand, P., 2001. El Nino and La Nina Events and North Atlantic tropical Cyclones. Masters of Science Thesis, Naval Postgraduate School, March 2001. Advisor: Prof. Tom Murphree. LaJoie, M., 2006. The Impact of Climate Variations on Military Operations in the Horn of Africa.Masters of Science Thesis, Naval Postgraduate School, March 2006. Advisors: Prof. Tom Murphree, Lt Col Karl Pfeiffer. Murphree, T., and B. Ford, 2006.  Mechanisms for El Nino and La Nina induced anomalies in tropical cyclone formation and motion in the northwest Pacific.  27th Annual Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology Conference, American Meteorological Society, Monterey, CA, 24-28 April 2006. Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jan 07

48. References - 2 Murphree, T., S. Bograd, F. Schwing, and B. Ford. 2003. Large scale atmosphere-ocean anomalies in the northeast Pacific during 2002 and their impacts on the California Current System. Geophysical Research Letters, 30, 8026-8029. Murphree, T., P. Green-Jessen, F. Schwing, and S. Bograd. 2003. The seasonal cycle of wind stress curl and its relationship to subsurface ocean temperature in the northeast Pacific. Geophysical Research Letters, 30, 1469-1472. Schwing, F.B., T. Murphree, L. deWitt, and P.M. Green. 2002. The evolution of oceanic and atmospheric anomalies in the northeast Pacific during the El Niño and La Niña events of 1995-2001. Progress in Oceanography, 54, 459-491. Schwing, F.B., T. Murphree, and P.M. Green. 2002. The Northern Oscillation Index (NOI): a new climate index for the northeast Pacific. Progress in Oceanography, 53, 115-139. Stepanek, A., 2006. Improving Medium-Range Forecasts in North America Using Teleconnections Associated with the Madden-Julian Oscillation.Masters of Science Thesis, Naval Postgraduate School, March 2006. Advisors: Prof. Tom Murphree, Prof. Chuck Wash. Vorhees, D., 2006. The Impacts of Global Scale Climate Variations on Southwest Asia.Masters of Science Thesis, Naval Postgraduate School, March 2006. Advisors: Prof. Tom Murphree, Lt Col Karl Pfeiffer. Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jan 07

49. Contact Information Tom Murphree, Ph.D. Department of Meteorology Naval Postgraduate School 254 Root Hall, 589 Dyer Road Monterey, CA 93943-5114 831-656-2723  commercial 756-2723  DSN 831-656-3061  fax murphree@nps.edu jtmurphr@nps.navy.smil.mil http://wx.met.nps.navy.mil/smart-climo/index.php http://wx.met.nps.navy.mil/metrics/metrics_reports.html Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jan 07

50. Back-Up and Background Discussion Slides Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jan 07