Smart Climatology Thesis Topics Tom Murphree, Ph.D. Naval Postgraduate School (NPS)

1. Smart Climatology Thesis Topics Tom Murphree, Ph.D. Naval Postgraduate School (NPS) Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Apr 07

2. DoD Climatology --- Statement of Problem • Warfighters not getting full benefit of proven operational climo because: • 1. DoD climatology has fallen behind the times and relies almost exclusively on long term mean climatology. • 2. This is not sufficient for DoD planning and operations. Need to also account for climate variations and climate forecasting. • 3. Climo information often not: (a) up to date; and/or (b) available at sufficient spatial / temporal resolution for area or period of interest. • 4. Very relevant climo information, methods, and products not yet readily available to AFW and METOC personnel or their customers. • a. not yet adapted for military use • b. no central, easily accessible source • 5. Difficult to translate climo info into environmental impacts on operations. Such translations are rarely provided in off-the-shelf climo products. • 6. METOC units must interpret and tailor available climo information to fit their individual needs. • a. too time consuming and labor intensive • b. much of this tailoring would be more efficient and • effective if done by experts at a central location • c. units’ time is better spent tailoring state of the art climo • to the needs of combatant commanders Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Apr 07

3. Example of Problems with DoD Climatology Products Heavy Precipitation and Flooding, Afghanistan & Pakistan, 1-15 Feb 2005 Precip Rate Anomaly, 1-15Feb05 Aerial View Precip Fig mm/d • Precip, temp, snowmelt, and runoff anomalies had large impacts on DoD operations. • Almost no DoD climo products available or suitable for explaining, monitoring, or forecasting these anomalies or operational impacts. • Problem with DoD climo products even worse for ocean. From NPS thesis research by Capt D. Vorhees, USAF; 2006. Advisors: T. Murphree and Lt Col K. Pfeiffer. Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Apr 07

4. Proposed Solutions • Smart climatology State-of-the-art basic and applied climatology that directly supports DoD operations • Long term smart climatologyprogram to: • Educate Naval METOC and AFW personnel on smart climo • Develop and apply smart climo methods • --- including adaptation of civilian sector methods • Develop smart climo operational products • Transition methods and products to operational use NPS is conducting a long term smart climatology program to help meet these needs. Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Apr 07

5. NPS Smart Climatology – Program Outline • Educational Program • Two courses,Modern Climatology (MR3610) and Advanced Climatology (MR4250) • Basic climate science, operational climo, and military applications • Extensive student use of real world data sets, analysis and forecasting tools, and case studies • Research Products • Analysis and forecast systems for assessing regional climate variations, including impacts of global variations (El Nino, La Nina, Madden-Julian Oscillation, Indian Ocean Zonal Mode, North Atlantic Oscillation) • Focus regions: • SWA, HOA, east Asia, North Pacific (western, tropical, northeastern), • North America • 3. Prototype Operational Products • Smart climo process for use by forecasters • Regional analyses and narratives based on climate variations • Operational impacts assessments • In progress: • climate indices for SWA, NW IO, HOA • statistical climate forecasts for SWA, NW IO, HOA • web-based delivery with updated climate monitoring • Collaboration with DoD Operational Centers • AFCCC, OWSs, CNMOC, METOC Directorates Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Apr 07

6. NPS Smart Climatology - Education Manas IAP Incirlik AB Bagram AB Herat Kandahar Slide from NPS climatology course AR ‘B’ Map courtesy of the AFCCC Strategic Climatic Information Service Climo Course Team Project Scenario: Operation T-Day Mission: Provide climo planning support for night time aerial operations to destroy large terrorist training camp in Afghanistan. Missions will launch from bases in Turkey, Diego Garcia, and Afghanistan. Launch Window: 19-28 Nov 2004 Lead time: One month Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Apr 07 Diego Garcia

7. NPS Smart Climatology - Education Manas IAP c x v c x v Incirlik AB c x v Bagram AB Herat Kandahar Slide from NPS climatology course c x v Team Project Report - More southerly storm track will result in possible takeoff delays for tankers leaving Incirlik - Tankers leaving Incirlik will see increased turbulence over Iraq and the northern Persian Gulf - Manas can expect increased precipitation - Bagram will see increased frequency of low ceilings and low visibility as well as crosswinds that may hinder Predator ops - Visibility for helos out of Kandahar will potentially be adversely affected by low clouds enroute; result: potential mission cancellation AR ‘B’ Map courtesy of the AFCCC Strategic Climatic Information Service Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Apr 07 No expected enroute weather impacts Expected enroute weather impacts to airframe may require mission rescheduling Enroute weather impacts exceed allowed criteria; reschedule mission c Ceiling Visibility Crosswinds c x v v x Diego Garcia

8. NPS Smart Climatology – Research Mechanisms that Lead to Above Normal Precip and Temp in SWA Above Normal Precip and Temp L Below Normal Tropical Convection H • Typical low level anomaly pattern during above normal precip and temp in SWA. • Caused by climate variations and teleconnections (specific phases of El Nino/La Nina, Indian Ocean Zonal Mode, Madden-Julian Oscillation, and/or North Atlantic Oscillation). • Climate variation reversal oppositeanomalies in SWA. • Climate variations predictable  SWA precip and temp predictable • In progress: Climate monitoring indices and forecasting systems based on climate variation analyses. From NPS thesis research by Capt D. Vorhees, USAF, 2006. Advisors: Prof. T. Murphree and Lt Col K. Pfeiffer. Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Apr 07

9. NPS Smart Climatology - Research H Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Apr 07 L Anomalies in Large Scale Circulation and TC Activity, Aug-Nov L H El Nino El Nino L H H L La Nina La Nina Upper tropospheric height anomalies associated with El Nino (EN) and La Nina (LN) periods. These height anomalies indicate anomalies in steering flow for tropical cyclones (TCs)., with more recurving TCs during EN and more straight runners during LN. This indicates that, for example, Taiwan (Korea) is more likely to be hit by TCs during LN (EN) years. NPS researchers have shownthat TC formation sites, tracks, and intensities are affected by EN and LN climate variations that are not accounted for in LTM climatologies. Figures from Ford, B., 2000. El Nino and La Nina Events, and Tropical Cyclones: Impacts and Mechanisms. Masters of Science Thesis, Naval Postgraduate School. Advisor: T. Murphree.

10. NPS Smart Climatology – Prototype Operational Products Impacts on Military Operations, Straits of Taiwan, October Green = favorable for indicated operations / mission Yellow = marginal for indicated operation / mission *Conditions slightly improved for NE Taiwan due to decreased monsoonal flow. Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Apr 07

11. NPS Smart Climatology - Research Upper Ocean Currents, Nov-Mar, Long Term Mean Note LTM inflow in Gulf Of Oman, Strait of Hormuz. 1 cm/s From Ford and Murphree (2007) Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Apr 07

12. NPS Smart Climatology - Research Upper Ocean Current Anomalies, Nov-Mar, During La Nina Periods Note reversal of inflow in much of Gulf Of Oman. 3 cm/s From Ford and Murphree (2007) Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Apr 07

13. NPS Smart Climatology - Research Strong Aleutian Low and Weak N Pacific High, Nov-Mar Weak Aleutian Low and Strong N Pacific High, Nov-Mar • Coastal anomalies: • SSH low • currents S-ward • Coastal anomalies: • SSH high • currents N-ward Results based on 45-year global ocean reanalysis, compositing by SLP index (NEPI). From Ford and Murphree (2007) Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Apr 07

14. NPS Smart Climatology - Research Strong Aleutian Low and Weak N Pacific High, Nov-Mar Weak Aleutian Low and Strong N Pacific High, Nov-Mar Take home message: climate variations in atmospheric forcing strongly affect upper ocean structure, circulation, and acoustic properties – as well as sea state and weather. • Coastal anomalies: • SSH low • currents S-ward • Coastal anomalies: • SSH high • currents N-ward Results based on 45-year global ocean reanalysis, compositing by SLP index (NEPI). From Ford and Murphree (2007) Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Apr 07

15. NPS Smart Climatology - Research Upper Ocean Thermal Energy Anomalies, 0-250 m, Aug-Nov El Nino J m-2 10-6 La Nina • Results based on 45-year global ocean reanalysis, and compositing of EN and LN • periods. • Upper ocean thermal energy anomalies closely related to anomalies in: thermocline • depth, SSTs, SSHs, currents, surface waves, SVP, SLD, surface heat and moisture • fluxes, humidity, atmospheric convection, etc. From Murphree and Ford (2007) Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Apr 07

16. NPS Smart Climatology - Forecast Process Process to be used by forecasters in developing smart climatology products for military customers. Details and applications in NPS thesis by Maj. Mark LaJoie, USAF (2006). From NPS thesis research by Maj M. LaJoie, USAF, 2006. Advisors: Prof. T. Murphree and Lt Col K. Pfeiffer. Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Apr 07

17. NPS Smart Climatology – Prototype Operational Products Camp Lemonier U.S. Embassy http://maps.google.com/ http://www.lib.utexas.edu/maps/united_states.html “Noncombatant evacuation operations (NEOs) are conducted to assist the Department of State (DOS) in evacuating noncombatants, nonessential military personnel, selected host-nation citizens, and third country nationals whose lives are in danger from locations in a host foreign nation to an appropriate safe haven and/or the United States. NEOs usually involve swift insertions of a force, temporary occupation of an objective, and a planned withdrawal upon completion of the mission.” JP3-07.5, “Joint Tactics, Techniques and Procedures for Noncombatant Evacuation Operations” • Scenario/Assumptions: Intel estimates indicate that the potential exists for a military coup in Ethiopia, which would necessitate the rapid evacuation of 150+ embassy personnel, plus an equal number of U.S. civilian expatriates (students, businesspeople). The USCENTCOM METOC (USAF O3) is tasked to develop a climatological assessment for a possible NEO during the Oct-Nov timeframe. A NEO CONPLAN is in development. The O3 recently read an NPS thesis discussing climate variations and military impacts in the HOA, and decides to use it as a guide for the assessment. • Intermediate Staging Base (ISB)/Safe Haven: Camp Lemonier, Djibouti, alternate USN ship. • Forces: MH53 Pave Lows, C130, RQ1-B Predator UAVs plus tankers & ground operations support From NPS thesis research by Maj M. LaJoie, USAF, 2006. Advisors: T. Murphree and Lt Col K. Pfeiffer. Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Apr 07

18. NPS Smart Climatology – Prototype Operational Products Typical:October–November is the “short rains” season in the Horn of Africa, characterized by extensive cloud decks, showers and isolated, afternoon thunderstorms. For typical years in the Addis Ababa area, moderate impacts to collections and RQ1B operations are assessed in October and early November, improving to mostly favorable after the mid-November end of the rainy season. RQ1B launch and recovery operations out of Camp Lemonier are assessed as favorable overall, with occasional impacts from afternoon crosswinds and extreme afternoon temperatures exceeding operational thresholds. El Nino:A strong El Nino event would tend to increase showers, cloud cover and thunderstorm activity in October-November. ISR impacts will tend to worse than in the typical year. Assessment for ISR is moderate to occasionally unfavorable. Assessment of RQ1B launch and recovery operations out of Camp Lemonier remains the same as in typical years. La Nina:A strong La Nina event would tend to suppress showers, cloud cover and thunderstorm activity during Oct-Nov. ISR impacts will tend to general improvement over typical years. Assessment for ISR is the same as for the typical year, but expect thunderstorm and shower frequency to decrease. Assessment of RQ1B launch and recovery operations out of Camp Lemonier remains the same as in typical years. Legend • Cloud cover 2. Precipitation 3. Winds 4. Temperature From NPS thesis research by Maj M. LaJoie, USAF, 2006. Advisors: T. Murphree and Lt Col K. Pfeiffer. Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Apr 07

19. NPS Smart Climatology – Prototype Operational Products • Sample prototype product developed by students for NPS climo course project on development and use of climo forecasts. • Impacts assessments based on climo forecasts complicated by uncertainties in climate forecasts and translation of forecasts to impacts. Thresholds based on AFWA/TN-98/002 Revised 13 June 2003. Red = worse than normal, white = normal, green = better than normal. Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Apr 07

20. NPS Smart Climatology – On-Going Projects • Examples of Current NPS Projects • 1. Smart Climatology Forecasts • statistically based, using global climate analyses • T and precip forecasts for southwest Asia • 2 week to 1 year lead times • operational forecast products for military decision makers • 2. Smart Climatology of the Evaporation Duct and Radar Propagation • NW Indian Ocean region • smart climo analyses and forecasts of EDH and radar propagation • operational products • use of products in military operational decision making • 3. Strategic Military Implications of Climate Change • Global warming and TC activity – statistical and dynamical analyses • Coupled atmosphere-ocean climate processes • Time scales of several years to decades • Impacts on joint strategic CONOPS • Implications for international allies and potential opponents Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Apr 07

21. Climatology Thesis Topics • Recommended Courses • Modern Climatology, MR 3610 • next offering: summer 2007 • Advanced Climatology / Atmospheric General Circulation, MR 4250 • next offering: fall 2007 • Related Student Specialties and Interests • Climatology • Physical Oceanography • Atmosphere-Ocean Interactions • Tropical Meteorology • General Meteorology • Operational Applications of Climatology • Related Warfare Areas • All areas requiring planning at leads of a week or longer (e.g., logistical support, air mobility ops, antisubmarine ops, CSG and ESG deployment, spec ops, etc.) Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Apr 07

22. Military Relevance of Climatology Thesis Topics Smart climo of great interest to AFWA and CNMOC (especially the COO, and the ASW and NSW directorates). Many topics on the FY05, FY06, and FY07 AF thesis topics list deal with climatology problems. Please see me if you are interested in pursuing any of these topics. Climatology topics that are not on the current AFIT thesis topics list may still be very attractive to AFW. See me or the faculty with whom I co-advise, Col David Smarsh and Lt Col Karl Pfeiffer, for more on this issue. “Awesome!! This is exactly the sort of research we need to be doing!” --- Col Berchoff, AFWA, after hearing brief on NPS smart climo projects during AFW T2 Summit, AFWA, September 2006 Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Apr 07

23. NPS Smart Climatology - Reports 44 Reports available to view and download at: http://wx.met.nps.navy.mil/smart-climo/reports.php Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Apr 07

24. Overview NPS Smart Climatology Program Tom Murphree, Ph.D. The typical process of developing military climatology products relies heavily on traditional methods of climate analysis, and excludes many modern methods of climate analysis and forecasting.  This means that very few military climatology products account for climate variations (e.g., El Nino, Madden-Julian Oscillation), or for the many advances over the last 30 years in climate data sets, monitoring, analysis, modeling, and forecasting.  Thus, Air Force Weather and Naval METOC units, and the combatant commanders they serve, lack state-of-the-art climatological support.  To address this shortcoming, we are conducting a long term program to develop, adapt, and transition to operational use systems for developing state-of-the-art military climatology, also known as smart climatology.  Our goal is to assist in closing the gap between (a) present climatological support for military operations and (b) the support that is achievable through the application of modern methods of climate analysis and forecasting.  Because of the wide application of climatology in the development of both climate and weather products, we expect smart climatology products to benefit combatant commanders at all planning levels (strategic, operational, and tactical). The primary goals of our smart climatology program are to: (1) develop scientific products for use in developing operational products; (2) develop operational planning products based on the scientific products; and (3) deliver scientific and operational products via a web-based (net-centric) platform.  Our primary scientific products are analyses of the regional atmospheric and oceanic impacts of climate variations (e.g., El Nino, La Nina, Madden-Julian Oscillation, Indian Ocean Zonal Mode, North Atlantic Oscillation).  The focus regions for our work thus far are southwest Asia (SWA), the Horn of Africa, east Asia, the western tropical North Pacific, the northeast Pacific, and North America.  Our main operational products are prototype assessments of operational impacts derived from: (a) our climate analyses; and (b) applying a set of forecaster guidelines that we have developed for providing smart climatology support.  We have recently begun a climate forecasting effort based on our climate analyses for SWA and using composite analysis methods.  We are currently developing web-based methods of product delivery. Our program is based on a collaboration of Naval Postgraduate School (NPS) faculty and staff, Air Force and Navy students at NPS, and climate research and development contractors.  We are also coordinating and collaborating in our smart climatology efforts with the Air Force Combat Climatology Center, Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Detachment Asheville, and civilian colleagues in climate research and operational climatology.  Reports on our program are available at: http://wx.met.nps.navy.mil/smart-climo/reports.php For more information on the NPS Smart Climatology Program, please contact the program director, Dr. Tom Murphree at: murphree@nps.edu Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Apr 07

25. Collaborators • Tom Murphree, NPS • Joel Feldmeier, LCDR, USN • Mark LaJoie, Maj, USAF • Adam Stepanek, Capt, USAF • Damon Vorhees, Capt, USAF • Chris Hanson, Capt, USAF • Sarah Moss, 1st Lt, USAF • David Meyer, LCDR, USN • Katherine Twigg, Lt, RN • Bob Tournay, Capt, USAF • Christi Montgomery, LT, USN • Bruce Ford, Clear Science, Inc. • Rebecca Stone, CDR, USN • Karl Pfeiffer, Lt Col, USAF • Chuck Wash, NPS • Air Force Combat Climatology Center • Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Detachment • CNMOC Professional Development Center • Naval War College • Civilian climate research & operational climatology organizations Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Apr 07

26. NPS Smart Climatology – Further Information Tom Murphree, Ph.D. Room 267, Root Hall Department of Meteorology Naval Postgraduate School Monterey, CA 93943-5114 murphree@nps.edu 831-656-2723  voice 831-656-3061  fax Email is the best way to reach me. But feel free to call or drop by my office anytime. All the major recent briefs, theses, and other reports from the NPS Smart Climatology program can be found at: http://wx.met.nps.navy.mil/smart-climo/ Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Apr 07