Claire Wright, Consultant, Lloyd’s MIU

1. METHODS FOR APPORTIONING CO2 EMISSIONS FROM SHIPS IMSF Gdansk 29 April 2008 Claire Wright, Consultant, Lloyd’s MIU Lloyd’s is the registered trademark of the Society incorporated by the Lloyd’s act 1871 by the name of Lloyd’s

2. OUTLINE • Legislative environment • Complexities in apportioning shipping emissions • Approaches • Trade/Shipping • Conclusions

3. GREEN OR NOT SO GREEN? Most efficient mode of goods transport Facilitated globalised economy Carries 77% of world trade 1470 mt CO2 by 2020? 2-4% global CO2 emissions 600- 1000mt CO2

4. WHY THE ATTENTION? • Scientific Consensus • - Global CO2 emissions reductions of 50% • - Keep CO2 in atmosphere below 450 ppm • - Temperature rise below 2ºC • Successor to Kyoto – 2012 • - Negotiations ongoing, decision 2009 - Aviation and shipping likely to be included • What does this mean for shipping? • - Aviation – divide flight 50/50 origin/dest?

5. COMPLEXITY OF SHIPPING Shipping and aviation are not the same: • Complex trading relationships : • 1.8m port to port transits 180,000 port to port links 10,000 country to country links • Bunkering • Multi-load/discharge • Landlocked countries • Transhipment Containership Transit Network Put in picture of container map

6. APPROACHES • Global bunker fuel sales • GDP • Regional studies of pollution in territorial waters • The 50/50 scenario • Trade imported/exported by country and mode • Tonne miles of trade imported/exported by country and mode Marine bunker sales 2006

7. REQUIREMENTS • What does the selected method need to do? • Apportion fairly by country – how defined? • Availableinformation – trade by country, commodity? • Clear methodology • Be repeatable • Be compatible with calculations for other transport modes

8. TONNE MILES Analysis of Petroleum Exports • Seaborne oil trades • Port to Port • Quantity • Route – Suez, Cape • Distance • Cargo Tonne Miles • + Bulgaria & Belgium • - Pipelines • - Ballast Source: Lloyd’s Marine Intelligence Unit

9. CRUDE OIL TONNE MILES Seaborne Export Tonnes Miles from EU-25 Seaborne Import Tonnes Miles to EU-25 Source: Lloyd’s Marine Intelligence Unit

10. TRADE & SHIPPING • Global model. Same methodology to all countries • Trade imported/exported to a country by mode • Tonne miles of cargo imported/exported by country To calculate emissions associated with trade to a country: • Origin/Destination of cargo, country level minimum • Transport mode • Agreed Distance from country A to country B • Route from A to B, e.g. Suez, Cape of Good Hope – could be by commodity • Agreed emission factors for mode

11. WORLD TRADE DATABASE • LMIU developed a detailed and consistent database of world merchandise trade broken down by mode • Seaborne • Tanker • Dry Bulk • General Cargo • Overland • Pipeline • Air • Value($) and Volume (metric tonnes) • UN COMTRADE Database SITC rev3.HS Rev 1: • + 1000 commodities, 245 countries • 20,000 unique trade routes, 3 million records

12. WHO TO BELIEVE: Importer or Exporter ?

13. WORLD TRADE TONNES

14. DATA CHALLENGES Trade Data • Inaccuracies/incompleteness in trade data: consistency in volumes, importer/exporter reporting differences, gaps in data. • Quantity of data – millions of trade data records, 4m ship movements a year. Shipping Data • Country level mileage not as accurate as port to port level • Ballast • Transport routes for landlocked and Suez/Cape trades • Pleasure/fishing craft/passenger vessels

15. CONCLUSION • Attention will continue– Vessels reducing emissions, emissions trading and country-level apportionment • Statistics – Accurate global level data is not yet available • Trade data offers one possible method, but • Data consistency, integrity, accuracy • A standardised method is needed – base for negotiations and policy measures on emissions reduction

16. WE CAN’T MODEL EVERYTHING… 12 hours in the life of the Pride of Calais:

17. ANY QUESTIONS?