Meeting of the CCl/OPACE2 Task Team on National Climate Monitoring Products

1. Meeting of the CCl/OPACE2 Task Team on National Climate Monitoring Products How might NCMPs contribute in future IPCC reports ? Fatima Driouech TT on national climate monitoring products, Geneva12-14 September 2011

2. Figure 3.1 shows annual global land-surface air temperatures, relative to the period 1961 to 1990, from the improved analysis (…; CRUTEM3) …. The long-term variations are in general agreement with those from the … (GHCN) data set …, and with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s (NASA) Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS; …) and Lugina et al. (2005) analyses... Most of the differences arise from the diversity of spatial averaging techniques. TT on national climate monitoring products, Geneva12-14 September 2011

3. Annual anomalies of maximum and minimum temperatures and DTR (°C) relative to the 1961 to 1990 mean, averaged for the 71% of global land areas where data are available for 1950 to 2004. The smooth curves show decadal variations TT on national climate monitoring products, Geneva12-14 September 2011

4. Observed trends (days per decade) for 1951to 2003 in the frequency of extreme temperatures, defined based on 1961 to 1990 values, as maps for the 10th percentile: (a) cold nights and (b) cold days; and 90th percentile: (c) warm nights and (d) warm days. Trends were calculated only for grid boxes that had at least 40 years of data during this period and had data until at least 1999. Black lines enclose regions where trends are significant at the 5% level. Below each map are the global annual time series of anomalies (with respect to 1961 to 1990). The red line shows decadal variations. Trends are significant at the 5% level for all the global indices shown. Adapted from Alexander et al. (2006). TT on national climate monitoring products, Geneva12-14 September 2011

5. Time series for 1900 to 2005 of annual global land precipitation anomalies (mm) from GHCN with respect to the 1981 to 2000 base period. The smooth curves show decadal variations ……. TT on national climate monitoring products, Geneva12-14 September 2011

6. Precipitation for 1900 to 2005. The central map shows the annual mean trends (% per century). Areas in grey have insufficient data to produce reliable trends. The surrounding time series of annual precipitation displayed (% of mean, with the mean given at top for 1961 to 1990) ……. The regions are …… : Central North America, Western North America, Alaska, Central America, Eastern North America, Mediterranean, Northern Europe, North Asia, East Asia, Central Asia, Southeast Asia, Southern Asia, Northern Australia, Southern Australia, Eastern Africa, Western Africa, Southern Africa, Southern South America, and the Amazon. TT on national climate monitoring products, Geneva12-14 September 2011

7. Anomalies (%) of the global annual time series (with respect to 1961 to 1990) defined as the percentage change of contributions of very wet days from the base period average (22.5%). The smooth red curve shows decadal variations. TT on national climate monitoring products, Geneva12-14 September 2011

8. The most important spatial pattern (top) of the monthly Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) for 1900 to 2002 TT on national climate monitoring products, Geneva12-14 September 2011

9. Better comparisons (period, calculation, …) • Minimize (the impact of) missing data (partially overcome the problem of unavailability ) • observed changes • model evaluations and comparisons • future changes