New Local Climate Outlook Products from the NWS

1. New Local Climate Outlook Products from the NWS Jay Breidenbach NOAA/National Weather Service

2. Outline • Introduce the new Local 3-Month Temperature Outlook (L3MTO) • Where to find Climate Products on Web • Downscaling Methodology • Product Benefits and Limitations • Future Local Climate Products

3. L3MTO Facts • The NWS is downscaling/transforming Climate Prediction Center’s (CPC) large scale 3-month temperature outlooks to specific locations • The L3MTO is: • Produced centrally at CPC • Disseminated via local WFO climate websites • Released simultaneously with CPC’s 3-month outlook product suite (3rd Thursday every month) • Produced for approximately 10 sites per WFO, or about 1150 sites nationwide – can potentially increase to ~4,000 sites

4. www.weather.gov/boise

14. How the Product was Developed Monthly routine: y = mx + b (where m = slope and b = y-intercept) CPC CD forecast Mean and St. Dev. Station data CD data Regression Analysis 1971-2000 Station Forecast Solution 1994-2003 Trend Significance Verification filter Significant? No Sufficient Score? Yes No Yes Forecast data Climatology Data Intercept Adjustment Bivariate statistics Regression Coefficients Distribution and Display Annual routine: 38.8 33.0 Graph Courtesy of Nicole Kempf

15. Outlook Evaluation • Access to the outlook evaluation is available on every display of the L3MTO • This tool can be used for both the national and the local 3-month temperature outlooks • Evaluation statistics can be computed for any combination of 3-month periods and/or years during 1994 to present (2003) • Allows the user to select different types of skill scores

16. Questions and Feedback • The “Questions and Feedback” tab links users to an online form to provide comments • User feedback is important, as this product will be evolving based on this feedback.

17. The L3MTO is now Available on all WFO Websites http://www.weather.gov/climate/l3mto.php

18. L3MTO Benefits • More spatial detail – higher resolution outlooks • The L3TMO suite provides multiple presentation formats to accommodate a wide range of users • Includes helpful resources for interpretation • Available locally, on all WFO webpages; higher visibility

19. L3MTO Limitations • Does not provide detail about the month-to-month or day-to-day variability • It’s a probabilistic forecast • more challenging to explain Because this product is an extension of the national 3-month outlook to the local level, it will naturally inherit the national product’s skill

20. What About Precipitation? • Precipitation is a much more complicated element to downscale • The precipitation downscaling methodology is under development • The product’s webpage design will be identical to the L3MTO design

21. ENSO Based Composites • Initially will include temperature and precipitation • Eventually other parameters will be added – WFOs will choose • ENSO based composites will be combined with CPC’s Nino 3.4 SST forecast – if the results are significant, then a forecast will accompany the L3MTO.

22. Thank You!! Please visit any WFO website to view these new products.