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Sven Werner Department of Energy and Environment Chalmers University of Technology, Sweden

ECOHEATCOOL WP1: The European Heat Market 2003 (8 short facts and 5 conclusions) WP4: District Heating Possibilities WP2: The European Cooling Market. Sven Werner Department of Energy and Environment Chalmers University of Technology, Sweden. ECOHEATCOOL - Performance.

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Sven Werner Department of Energy and Environment Chalmers University of Technology, Sweden

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  1. ECOHEATCOOLWP1: The European Heat Market 2003(8 short facts and 5 conclusions) WP4: District Heating Possibilities WP2: The European Cooling Market Sven Werner Department of Energy and Environment Chalmers University of Technology, Sweden NEP Conf, Helsinki, Jan 24, 2006

  2. ECOHEATCOOL - Performance NEP Conf, Helsinki, Jan 24, 2006

  3. ECOHEATCOOL – European Heat Market 2003 • Demand analysis, no supply analysis • EU25 + ACC4 + EFTA3 = 32 countries • Facts about heat demands • Focus on the industrial, residential, and service sectors • Main source: IEA Energy balances, since more reliable than Eurostat energy database with respect to heat information NEP Conf, Helsinki, Jan 24, 2006

  4. ECOHEATCOOL – European Heat Market 2003 – Some Facts Figure 7. Industrial heat demands estimated by temperature quality and by manufacturing branch for the whole target area of 32 countries. The figure has been created by using experiences from the German industry reported in (AGFW, 2005) and applied on the IEA database for the target area. NEP Conf, Helsinki, Jan 24, 2006

  5. ECOHEATCOOL – European Heat Market 2003 – Some Facts Figure 17. Residential useful floor space per capita versus each national GDP per capita for 2003. Average lines added for the EU15 and NMS10 country groups. NEP Conf, Helsinki, Jan 24, 2006

  6. ECOHEATCOOL – European Heat Market 2003 – Some Facts Figure 19. Useful floor space in the service sector per capita versus each national GDP per capita for 2003. NEP Conf, Helsinki, Jan 24, 2006

  7. ECOHEATCOOL – European Heat Market 2003 – Some Facts Figure 26. Market shares for end use of net heat and electricity in the others sector during 2003. NEP Conf, Helsinki, Jan 24, 2006

  8. ECOHEATCOOL – European Heat Market 2003 – Some Facts Figure 21. The new European heating index (EHI) in a contour map computed from information for 80 urban locations in Europe. The space heating demand should be proportional to this index. Note that the map is not representative for all locations in each country, since the existing data grid consists of only 80 locations. NEP Conf, Helsinki, Jan 24, 2006

  9. ECOHEATCOOL – European Heat Market 2003 – Some Facts Figure 46. Estimations of national averages of district heat prices without VAT for 23 countries in the target area. Source: (Werner& Brodén, 2004) with update by additions of 2002 and 2003. NEP Conf, Helsinki, Jan 24, 2006

  10. ECOHEATCOOL – European Heat Market 2003 – Some Facts Total customer costs for net heat and electricity (including national taxes but excluding VAT) was almost 400 Billion € during 2003 with the following distribution: NEP Conf, Helsinki, Jan 24, 2006

  11. ECOHEATCOOL – European Heat Market 2003 – Some Facts Figure 48. Other and industrial sector net heat and electricity cost including national taxes for final consumption as a fraction of each national GDP for 2003. NEP Conf, Helsinki, Jan 24, 2006

  12. Major Conclusions • Heat dominates the European energy demand • Heat use is dominated by the supply of natural gas and electricity • About the same space heat demand in Western, Central, Eastern, and Northern Europe • International heat statistics can be improved • No major physical constraints for more district heat in Europe – Expansion is possible NEP Conf, Helsinki, Jan 24, 2006

  13. Conclusions – 1. Heat Dominates End Use Figure 2. Energy balances for EU25+ACC4+EFTA3 during 2003. Heat in the Total Final Consumption bar considers commercial heat deliveries, mostly through district heating systems, while heat in the Total End Use bar considers all heat used by end users, except heat generated from electricity, still allocated to the electricity area. NEP Conf, Helsinki, Jan 24, 2006

  14. Conclusions – 2. Heat Use Is Dominated by the Supply of Natural Gas and Electricity Figure 38. Final end use of net heat and electricity for the whole target area for the three major sectors with origin of supply. NEP Conf, Helsinki, Jan 24, 2006

  15. Conclusions – 2. Heat Use Is Dominated by the Supply of Natural Gas and Electricity Figure 39. Total final end use of net heat and electricity in the three major sectors (industrial, residential, and service) in each country with origin of supply. NEP Conf, Helsinki, Jan 24, 2006

  16. Conclusions – 3. About the Same Space Heat Demand Figure 37. Correlation between the residential net heat and electricity use per m2 during 2003 and the new European heating index. Iceland has been excluded due to a high value (1750 MJ/m2). NEP Conf, Helsinki, Jan 24, 2006

  17. Conclusions – 4. Improvement of International Heat Statistics • International heat statistics have been improved during the last 10-20 years, both by IEA and Eurostat. • But both major and minor deficiencies remain • Major deficiencies: National information about district heat is not always properly transferred to international statistics (Germany, France, and Italy) • Minor deficiencies: Misallocations between use sectors (Netherlands, Luxembourg, Germany, and France, Latvia, Lithuania, Czech and Slovak republics) NEP Conf, Helsinki, Jan 24, 2006

  18. Conclusions – 4. Improvement of International Heat Statistics An example of how the district heat sectors for Germany, France, and Italy are lost in international energy statistics! NEP Conf, Helsinki, Jan 24, 2006

  19. Conclusions – 5. District Heat Can Expand • Most heat demands are located in urban areas where district heating system can expand or be introduced. • No major difference in magnitudes of heat demands in countries with and without district heating. • The current heat sources are huge: The use of district heat (2 EJ) is only 6 % of all current conversion heat losses in the energy, industrial, residential, and service sectors. NEP Conf, Helsinki, Jan 24, 2006

  20. The Current European District Heating Situation • Several thousands of district heating systems exist today in EU25 + ACC4 + EFTA 3. • Large systems are found in Warsaw, Berlin, Stockholm, Helsinki, Sofia, Paris, Vienna, Munich, Prague, and Copenhagen. • New, small systems have been introduced in both Barcelona (Districlima) and Lisbon (Climespaso). • The basic technologies, business models, organisations, and staff have been developed and exist already. • Major inventions are not needed for expansion of existing systems and introduction of new systems. NEP Conf, Helsinki, Jan 24, 2006

  21. But the District Heating Systems Do Not Grow! NEP Conf, Helsinki, Jan 24, 2006

  22. Next Step in ECOHEATCOOL: Quantifying the Benefits With More District Heat in Europe Doubling the 2003 district heat share in Europe will • Decrease all carbon dioxide emissions with X % • Increase security of supply with X % • Increase the overall energy efficiency with X % NEP Conf, Helsinki, Jan 24, 2006

  23. Distribution of the doubling NEP Conf, Helsinki, Jan 24, 2006

  24. Distribution of the doubling NEP Conf, Helsinki, Jan 24, 2006

  25. ECOHEATCOOL – European Cooling Market – Facts Figure 4. European cooling index (ECI) in a contour map computed from information from 80 urban locations in Europe. The average space cooling demand should be proportional to this index. Note that the map is not representative for all locations in each country, since the existing data grid consists of only 80 locations. NEP Conf, Helsinki, Jan 24, 2006

  26. European cooling demands NEP Conf, Helsinki, Jan 24, 2006

  27. District Cooling as a Future Alternative Figure 16. Indicative mapping of district cooling networks and on-site cooling installations (5 biggest indicated per country) NEP Conf, Helsinki, Jan 24, 2006

  28. The End Thank you for your attention! Any questions? More information at www.ecoheatcool.org NEP Conf, Helsinki, Jan 24, 2006

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