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After the BOOM

After the BOOM. Average of 45 $ /b, instead of 100 $/b. Gulf Oil Revenues. Dropping more than half. GCC Public Spending. ?. GCC – Oil Dependant. RECESSION. Absorbing the Impact. Past Years Surplus. Fiscal Balance (% GDP). Cumulative Fiscal Surplus 2003-2008 / Fiscal Balance 2009.

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After the BOOM

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  1. After the BOOM Average of 45 $ /b, instead of 100 $/b

  2. Gulf Oil Revenues Dropping more than half

  3. GCC Public Spending ?

  4. GCC – Oil Dependant RECESSION

  5. Absorbing the Impact Past Years Surplus

  6. Fiscal Balance (% GDP)

  7. Cumulative Fiscal Surplus 2003-2008 / Fiscal Balance 2009 US $ bn

  8. BAHRAIN Real Growth % GDP (US $ bn) Fiscal Balance (% GDP ) Inflation %

  9. BAHRAIN Cement Consumption Million Tons • Arabian Gulf Cement Co. • Imported Clinker • New License faced problems

  10. KUWAIT Real Growth % GDP (US $ bn) Fiscal Balance (% GDP ) Inflation %

  11. KUWAIT Million Tons • Kuwait Cement company to reach about 4.5m Mt by 2010 • Clinker production about 2m Mt

  12. OMAN Real Growth % GDP (US $ bn) Fiscal Balance (% GDP ) Inflation %

  13. OMAN • Oman Cement Co. reached produced about 1.9 m Mt • Raysut Cement reached about 3 m Mt and adding about 1.4 m Mt in Q4 2009

  14. QATAR Real Growth % GDP (US $ bn) Fiscal Balance (% GDP ) Inflation %

  15. QATAR Million Tons • QNCC producing 1.5 m Mt , will increase about 1,2 m Mt • Gulf Cement adding a new production line 1.4 m Mt • Clinker production about 900,000 Mt

  16. SAUDI ARABIA Real Growth % GDP (US $ bn) Fiscal Balance (% GDP ) Inflation %

  17. SAUDI ARABIA • 12 domestic producers , 4 of them started production in 2008 • Exports reached 3.4 m Mt in 2008 • Severe overcapacity problem.

  18. U.A.E. Real Growth % GDP (US $ bn) Fiscal Balance (% GDP ) Inflation %

  19. U.A.E. • 9 listed companies , producing 60% of local production • Annual consumption growth rate is likely to fall from 24 % to 10% • Overcapacity in clinker production and grinding facilities

  20. ACTIONS TO BE DONE

  21. Producers – Possible Ideas

  22. Producers – Possible Ideas

  23. Producers – Possible Ideas

  24. Governments – Possible Ideas

  25. Governments – Possible Ideas

  26. Governments – Possible Ideas

  27. Governments – Possible Ideas

  28. - Oil Prices expectations in 2006

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