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Household projections for Scotland

Household projections for Scotland. Valerie Hale and Esther Roughsedge July 2012. Summary. Methods 2010-based household projections Principal projection Variant projections Future work. Method. Projections are produced by: Local authority Age (5 year bands)

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Household projections for Scotland

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  1. Household projections for Scotland Valerie Hale and Esther Roughsedge July 2012

  2. Summary • Methods • 2010-based household projections • Principal projection • Variant projections • Future work

  3. Method Projections are produced by: • Local authority • Age (5 year bands) • Household type (1 adult male, 1 adult female, 2 adults, 1adult 1 child, 1 adult 2+ children, 2+ adults 1+children, 3+ adults) Population projections Inputs Calculate private household population to 2035 Communal establishment estimates Constrain LA figures to Scottish totals Calculate the raw household projection Project headship rates to 2035 Headship rates Household estimates Minimum adult and child adjustments Sum LA figures to give final Scottish figures Constrain to household estimates Final projections

  4. Principal projection • 23% increase in households between 2010 and 2035 • Increases in small households and decreases in large households

  5. Principal projection • Large increases in older households • Local authority changes are between -6% and +43% to 2035

  6. 2010-based household projections –variant projections • 6 variant projections were published • Migration (High and Low) • Alternative headship variants • Economic downturn variant

  7. Migration variants • based on variant population projections

  8. Alternative headship variants • Survey evidence suggests that the household projections may be overestimating 1 adult households and under-estimating larger households. 2010

  9. Alternative headship variants • Assume slower changes in headship rates (half way between those of the principal projection and the rate in 2001)

  10. Economic downturn • In the last three years the year on year increase in the household numbers has been much lower than in previous years (based on council tax data)

  11. Constrained housing variant • Assumes that for 2012 to 2014 the year-on-year increases will be the same as the average yearly increases for 2009, 2010 and 2011 (applied at local authority level).

  12. Future Work • Microsimulation-based variant • Produce a new variant using a Scottish microsimulation model developed by Ashley McCormick and Paul Williamson • Incorporation of 2011 census results • We will review the methodology used in light of the 2011 census results • Use more than two census points? • Use Household Reference Person? • Suggestions?

  13. Contacts 2010-based household projections: http://www.gro-scotland.gov.uk/statistics/theme/households/projections/2010-based/index.html valerie.hale@gro-scotland.gsi.gov.uk or esther.roughsedge@gro-scotland.gsi.gov.uk

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