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Calculation of Quarterly Household Final Consumption Expenditure Estimates for Scotland

Calculation of Quarterly Household Final Consumption Expenditure Estimates for Scotland. Kenny Grant. Overview. GDP(E) Households Non-Profit Institutions General Government Gross Capital Formation HHFCE contributes > 60% towards GDP(E) Consumer Trends

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Calculation of Quarterly Household Final Consumption Expenditure Estimates for Scotland

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  1. Calculation of Quarterly Household Final Consumption Expenditure Estimates for Scotland Kenny Grant

  2. Overview • GDP(E) • Households • Non-Profit Institutions • General Government • Gross Capital Formation • HHFCE contributes > 60% towards GDP(E) • Consumer Trends • Current prices, Chained volume measure, Implied deflators • Unadjusted and adjusted for seasonality • Yearly • Quarterly • 12 COICOP categories + Net Tourism

  3. Sources • Expenditure & Food Survey • Yearly publication from ONS • Scottish and UK expenditure • >280 individual recordings of expenditure • 3 year moving average • 2002/03 – 2004/05, 2007 • FES 1998/99, 1999/00

  4. Sources • Current Prices • Not Seasonally Adjusted • Quarterly Data • 12 COICOP + Net Tourism Consumer Trends Household Figures • Scottish Mid-Year Estimates/Projections • - GRO • UK Mid-Year Estimates/Projections • - Communities.gov.uk

  5. Assumptions • Scottish % Hotels & Catering used to apportion UK Net Tourism Expenditure for Scotland • Difference in EFS and National Accounts breakdown from COICOP beyond top 12 • Imputed Rental (4. Housing) • Life Insurance (12. Miscellaneous)

  6. Methodology • EFS financial year series created from 1998/99 to 2007/08 • Scotland and UK • 12 COICOP level • Scottish household proportions for each year for each COICOP = Scottish average weekly expenditure X # Scottish Households • Divided by UK equivalent • = Scottish % of UK HHFCE

  7. Methodology • Convert financial year Scottish Proportions to a quarterly series • Cubic Splines • UK National Accounts data X Scottish % of UK expenditure = Quarterly Scottish HHFCE • (Not Seasonally Adjusted) • Seasonally adjusted series • X-12-ARIMA • Comparable series to UK national Accounts • All series showed signs of seasonality and were adjusted (except Education)

  8. Results • Series of 6 tables • Scottish HHFCE • UK HHFCE • Scottish Proportions of UK HHFCE • Scottish HHFCE (Seasonally Adjusted) • UK HHFCE (Seasonally Adjusted) • Scottish Proportions of UK HHFCE (Seasonally Adjusted) • Calendar year • Financial year • Quarterly

  9. Future Work • Updates • Quarterly National Accounts (Consumer Trends) • EFS • Household Estimates/Projections • COICOP Breakdown • Individual goods and services • Imputed Rentals / Life Insurance • Net Tourism

  10. Calculation of Quarterly Household Final Consumption Expenditure Estimates for Scotland Kenny Grant

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