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NEMOMED8 performance in the Adriatic Sea: the first results

NEMOMED8 performance in the Adriatic Sea: the first results. Natalija Dunić, Ivica Vilibić, Jadranka Šepić Institute of Oceanography and Fisheries, Split, Croatia, sepic@izor.hr. Samuel Somot CNRS-GAME, Toulouse, France. Outline: About Mediterranean climate modelling

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NEMOMED8 performance in the Adriatic Sea: the first results

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  1. NEMOMED8 performance in the Adriatic Sea: the first results Natalija Dunić, Ivica Vilibić, Jadranka Šepić Institute of Oceanography and Fisheries, Split, Croatia, sepic@izor.hr Samuel Somot CNRS-GAME, Toulouse, France

  2. Outline: • About Mediterranean climate modelling • About NEMOMED8-ARPERA2 run • Verification on data • DWF and BiOS • Conclusions et al.

  3. About Mediterranean climate modelling • Most of them available through MedCordex community, https://www.medcordex.eu. • Several strong institutional groups engaged

  4. About NEMOMED8-ARPERA2 run • period: 1958-2013 • 1/8° horizontal resolution, varies approximately from 12 km in the south to 9 km in the north of the domain • 43 inhomogeneous vertical z-levels • deformed around Gibraltar, to resolve strait dynamics, Atlantic buffer • ARPERA2 surface forcing: ARPEGE-Climate downscaling of ERA-40 • rivers: RivDis database + Ludwig et al. (2009), Black Sea inflow as a river

  5. Verification on data Palagruža Sill transect • Seasonal sygnal removed • Model fairly reproduce mean fields • Model overestimate temperature and salinity • Interannual variability strongly underestimated

  6. Verification on data JP Stations D1200, JP D1200 • Model underestimates dense water formation in the Adriatic

  7. Verification on data Hovmoller plots Central Palagruža Sill • Fair reproduction of the EMT • Longer periodicity of interannual/decadal thermohaline oscillations

  8. Verification on data Palagruža Sill - trends • Trends are not reproduced properly

  9. DWF and BiOS Dense water transports • Decadal variability in dense water formation • Correlation with wintertime (NDJF) fluxes • EMT-driven advection of low salinity waters in the Adriatic stopped the DWF

  10. DWF and BiOS ROMS/Aladin Janeković et al., JGR, 2014 Extreme winter of 2012 • Although underestimating, extreme DWF dynamics have been reproduced qualitatively NEMOMED8

  11. DWF and BiOS model Decadal patterns obtained by SOM neural networks at the Palagruža Sill measurements Mihanović et al., JGR, 2015 • Fair reproduction of termohaline patterns, but not in time (except post-EMT period)

  12. DWF and BiOS BiOS not reproduced quantitatively • NEMOMED8 BiOS do not follow observed BiOS • Circulation is always cyclonic (although oscillating in strength), the NIG gyre is located more to the southwest

  13. Conclusions et al. • Not much people looked to the reproduction quality of 3D climate models in the Adriatic Sea  this study is just a beginning (we hope) • NEMOMED8 river forcing do not include some major rivers, underestimate wintertime cooling and the DWF • NEMOMED8 climate model is qualitatively reproducing Adriatic dynamics, but qualitatively pretty far from reality • BiOS has not been properly modelled • More advanced climate model should be applied – NEMOMED12, with better forcing ALDERA run (Aladin-Climate) and better rivers

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