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Regional Emission-free Technology Implementation (RETI): Diversifying the U.S. Electricity Portfolio. Marc Santos 2008 ASME WISE Intern University of Massachusetts Amherst. Overview. Climate Change Action Issue Definition Status of US Electricity Portfolio Transition Options
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Regional Emission-free Technology Implementation (RETI): Diversifying the U.S. Electricity Portfolio Marc Santos 2008 ASME WISE Intern University of Massachusetts Amherst
Overview • Climate Change Action • Issue Definition • Status of US Electricity Portfolio • Transition Options • Electricity Portfolio Projections • Recommendations
Climate Change Action • In 2007 report: UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) • “Warming of the climate system is Unequivocal” • Reduce Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions by 60-80% • Sept 2007: President Bush states climate action needed • 110th Congress produces 195 pieces of climate change legislation • Both Presidential candidates support a cap on GHG emissions
Rise in Electricity • Energy Information Administration states electricity will increase by 30% by 2030 • 1.1% increase per year will mean 45% increase by 2050 • 120 million digital converter boxes = half refrigerator • Plasma TVs use 3-4 times more power • Cell phone, laptop, and video game plug-in power supplies have 40-50% power losses • Potentially plug-in hybrid vehicles
Issue Definition • GHG emissions should be reduced to 80% of current levels by 2050. • US electricity demand to increase 45% by 2050. Can the U.S. meet this amount of emission-free generation capacity by 2050? And, if so how?
Why Focus on Electricity? • Electricity sector is the largest producer of CO2
Current US Electricity Portfolio • Mostly fossil fuels, especially coal • No new nuclear facilities built for 30 years • Natural gas has been largest recent growth • Non-hydroelectric renewables are minimal 2006 production: 4065 billion kilowatt hours
Current Non-Emitting Technologies • Nuclear • Hydroelectric • Geothermal • Wind • Solar • Biomass • Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS)
Current Population Distribution Energy production should be regional
Evaluating Existing Projections • Energy Information Administration (EIA) • 2008 Annual Energy Outlook for 2030 • Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) • 2008 “Prism” Full Portfolio Projection for 2030 • International Energy Agency (IEA) • Energy Technology Perspectives Blue Map for 2050
Energy Information Administration • Increase in coal use • No CCS technology • Renewables grow slightly • New nuclear plants are built to meet 19% 2008 Annual Energy Outlook projection for 2030
Electric Power Research Institute • CCS is developed for fossil fuels • Nuclear grows substantially • Renewables grow more rapidly than EIA projection PRISM projection for 2030
International Energy Agency Derived from 2008ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES Scenarios Strategies to 2050
Regional Emission-Free Technology Implementation (RETI) Scenario • Adapting the IEA global projections for the US domestic electricity portfolio results in: • 25% nuclear • 46% renewable • Wind, Solar, Hydroelectric, Biomass, Geothermal • 50% CCS technology for fossil fuels • End-Use efficiency
RETI Projected Results for 2050 2050 RETI 2050 RETI scenario • W/ CCS we reach a 73% reduction of 2006 emission levels.
Development Needed for RETI • Large increase in Nuclear, Wind, and Solar capacities
Hurdles to Overcome • Nuclear • Reprocessing and waste disposal • Rebuilding infrastructure • Renewables • Large scale energy storage • Advanced transmission systems “smart grids” • System reliability • CCS (Fossil fuels) • Sequestration of Carbon
Recommendations Emission-free Technology Advancement • Implement a national emission standard which allows for regional flexibility • Implement a national renewable portfolio standard (RPS) which allows regional portfolio development • Continue production tax credits for investment of renewable technologies. • Allocate a substantial percentage of R & D funding to clean power generation technologies without specific inclusion or exclusion of particular emission-free systems.
Recommendations Infrastructure Revision • Upgrade current transmission lines to allow for additional capacity of electricity and efficient grid use • Create new programs to redevelop US infrastructure by increasing worker training and facility construction to support the manufacture and installation of emission-free technologies.
Recommendations Energy Efficiency • Improve financial incentives for energy reduction through economic programs such as federal tax credits and feed in tariffs. • Promote the development of efficiency standards in consumer products.