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SCOPE-Nowcasting: Volcanic Ash Inter-comparison

This initiative aims to provide consistent satellite products for nowcasting and severe weather risk reduction, with a focus on volcanic ash detection. The project will assess different satellite sensors, improve product performance, and develop a roadmap for meeting aviation stakeholder needs.

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SCOPE-Nowcasting: Volcanic Ash Inter-comparison

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  1. Sustained, Co-Ordinated Processing of Environmental Satellite Data for Nowcasting(SCOPE-Nowcasting): Volcanic Ash Inter-comparisonMike PavolonisNOAA/NESDISandChair – SCOPE-Nowcasting Executive Panel

  2. Acknowledgements • WMO (Stephan Bojinski, ToshiKurino, Werner Balogh, Yingchu Chu) • EUMETSAT (Rose Munro) • RAL (Gareth Thomas and Richard Siddans) • INGV (Ricardo Biondi, Stefano Corradini, Luca Merucci, SimonaScollo, Giuseppe Salerno, OrnellaCocina, Salvatore Mangiagli)

  3. WMO SCOPE-Nowcasting The goal of the WMO Sustained, Co-Ordinated Processing of Environmental Satellite Data for Nowcasting (SCOPE-Nowcasting) initiative is to demonstrate continuous and sustained provision of consistent, well-characterized satellite products for nowcasting and severe weather risk reduction. http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/sat/scope-nowcasting_en.php

  4. Objective Operational • Provide consistent and reliable satellite products to users to support nowcasting • Demonstrate the concept through a number of pilot projects Strategic • Build strong relationships between product developers across different agencies • Foster scientific collaboration across satellite operators • Sustain product dissemination and facilitate user uptake

  5. First Four Pilot Projects

  6. VA Intercomparison: Need for Guidance WMO (Member States and Territories) ICAO (Contracting States) ICAO Met Panel WMO Commission for Atmospheric Science WMO Commission for AeronauticalMeteorology WMO Commission for Basic Systems ICAO Met Panel WG 2 Met Information and Service DevelopmentSub-Group on VA WMO SCOPE-Nowcasting WMO/IUGG VASAG Otherusers / benefits GAW/WWRP Satellite-based VA Intercomparison

  7. Major Outcomes of 2015 Activity • The accuracy of satellite-based volcanic ash products is a strong function of the retrieval methodology, satellite sensor capability, and scene complexity. • Recommendations (22): Need additional validation data and microphysical constraints; integrate quantitative products with qualitative imagery; uncertainty in ash detection and property retrievals should be clearly conveyed; error tolerances need to be determined for applications that utilize quantitative products • Primary recommendation: Additional analyses are required to better understand quantitative capabilities and provide a consensus outlook on end-to-end capabilities for operational applications http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/sat/documents/SCOPE-NWC-PP2_VAIntercompWSReport2015.pdf

  8. Objectives of 2018 Activity • Analysis of certain cases (from 2015 activity) in greater detail in order to better understand ash detection and retrieval differences and sensitivities • Assessment of volcanic ash products generated from “next generation” satellite sensors, such as Himawari-8 • Assessment of product performance on ice rich umbrella-like volcanic clouds • Documenting advances in satellite-derived volcanic ash products over the last 3 years • Creating a consensus “road map” for meeting the increasing demand for high quality satellite-derived volcanic ash products for operational applications

  9. Completion of Volcanic Ash Inter-comparison • Major Milestones: • Mar 1, 2018: updated work plan distributed to participants • Mid April 2018: new validation data sets delivered to RAL • Mid May 2018: updated satellite products delivered to RAL for analysis • Oct 8-12, 2018: workshop (Catania, Italy) • December 2018: final report on inter-comparison activity, including roadmap for meeting evolving aviation stakeholder needs • 2019: Journal paper?

  10. Slides will be posted to WMO webpage w/ permission Proposed Report Outline • 1. Executive Summary (plain language) • 2. Background and Motivation (plain language) • 3. State of Satellite Measurement Capabilities (plain language) • Summary of current and future capabilities (GEO and LEO) • 4. Satellite-derived Volcanic Ash Products (plain language) • High level summary of recent improvements gleaned from inter-comparison studies • Remaining challenges (based on inter-comparison studies) • 5. Research to Operations (R2O) (plain language) • Definition of operations and typical R2O timeline • User training • Current products in operations (24/7 support) at VAAC or VAAC affiliated agencies • Experimental NRT products • 6. Outlook for New and Improved Satellite Products (plain language) • Appendices: agenda, participants, scientific details, summary of presentations and discussion

  11. Key Operational Questions where Satellite is Critical • Did a cloud-producing volcanic eruption occur? • What are the attributes, and associated uncertainty, of the eruption (ESP’s) and resulting cloud? • What are the future attributes, and uncertainty, of the volcanic cloud (model ready data)?

  12. Evolving Aviation Needs The global air traffic management system is evolving into a more agile, data rich, system. With these changes in mind, binary volcanic ash advisory polygons do not provide sufficient information. Rory Clarkson – Rolls Royce

  13. SCOPE-Nowcasting Resources Pilot project descriptions:http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/sat/documents/SCOPE-NWC_PilotProjects-Jan2017.pdf 1st Meeting of Executive Panel (18-20 September 2017): http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/sat/meetings/SCOPE-Nowcasting-EP-1.php Meeting of Ad-hoc Steering Group (19-22 November 2013): http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/sat/meetings/SCOPE-Nowcasting-1.php

  14. Backup Material

  15. Background • Concept originated in 2010 at in the 5th meeting of the Expert Team on Satellite Utilization and Products(ET-SUP-5) as a possible analog to SCOPE-CM • CGMS members nominated focal points for the SCOPE-Nowcasting (NWC) • First meeting of SCOPE-NowcastingAd-hoc Team: 19-22 November 2013, WMO Geneva, with participation from CMA, JMA, KMA, EUMETSAT, NOAA and Bureau of Meteorology, where first 4 pilot projects were decided • First meeting of the SCOPE-NWC Executive Panel: 18-20 September, 2017, WMO Geneva, with participation from CMA, JMA, KMA, EUMETSAT, NOAA, ABOM, INPE, SIMEPAR/INMET, and JPL;three new pilot projects were proposed; four existing pilot projects were reviewed

  16. Expected Benefits The expected benefits of this approach are: • Improved access to satellite data by WMO member states • Improved confidence in products generated through SCOPE-Nowcasting • Reduced operating costs associated with technological change and software upgrades • Reduced training overheads • Improved cooperation between NMHSs through access to shared products • Strong connections between scientists across agencies as a foundation for increased collaboration

  17. Evolving Aviation Needs Rory Clarkson – Rolls Royce

  18. Inter-comparison Data Sets – Etna (2015)

  19. Inter-comparison Data Sets – Rinjani (2015)

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