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TFIAM 10-12 May 2004 Amiens

TFIAM 10-12 May 2004 Amiens. EEA scenario 2005 project : sustainable emission pathways Hans Eerens RIVM. ETC/ACC partners and others involved: RIVM : IMAGE/TIMER/FAIR/EUROMOVE models, global scenarios, climate effects, coordination

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TFIAM 10-12 May 2004 Amiens

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  1. TFIAM 10-12 May 2004Amiens EEA scenario 2005 project : sustainable emission pathways Hans Eerens RIVM

  2. ETC/ACC partners and others involved: • RIVM: IMAGE/TIMER/FAIR/EUROMOVE models, global scenarios, climate effects, coordination • NTUA: PRIMES/GEM-E3/PROMETHEUS models, European energy system • IIASA: RAINS model, European air quality • AEAT: non-CO2 GHGs and non-energy CO2 emissions • IPTS: POLES model, technology variants • AUTH: OFIS model, transport & urban Air Quality • NILU: Air Pollution State & policies • CCE: Air pollution effects on ecosystems/critical loads • EEA: project guidance, links with issues other than air and climate change

  3. ETC/ACC SCENARIOS IN SUPPORT OF EEA SOEOR2005 Objectives: • Explore air pollution and climate change implications of CAFE baseline and policy scenarios • Long-Range Energy Modelling (LREM) • Clean Air For Europe Kyoto ratified (CAFE-KR) • Explore alternative scenarios which meet sustainability goals also beyond CAFE • Sustainable Emissions Pathways (SEP)

  4. DRIVING FORCES, PRESSURE, STATE, IMPACTS AND RESPONSES IN SOEOR2005

  5. TOOLS USED FOR SOEOR2005 MODEL ANALYSIS GEM-E3 PROMETHEUS OFIS AQ Impacts SEP

  6. OVERVIEW OF THE PROCESS OF DESIGNING SUSTAINABLE EMISSIONS PATHWAYS SCENARIO FOR EEA’S SOEOR2005 REPORT Add 2030-2100 Add non CO2 GHGs CAFE LREM CAFE LREM-E NEC targets? Yes Kyoto targets? No NEC targets? Yes Kyoto targets? Yes* long-term targets? No CAFE KR Driving forces: population, economic growth Sustainable Emissions Pathways scenario (SEP) NEC targets? Yes Kyoto targets? Yes* long-term targets? Yes Energy system details and variants Low Economic growth LREM-E/LE SEP-LE ETC/ACC for EEA/SoEOR2005 CAFE

  7. THREE TIMEFRAMES FOR SOEOR2005 ANALYSIS

  8. ECONOMIC GROWTH ASSUMPTIONS FOR SOEOR2005 European economic growth assumptions for LREM-E, CAFE-KR and SEP well in range of other projections, ranking moderate optimistic

  9. POPULATION ASSUMPTIONS FOR SOEOR2005

  10. POPULATION ASSUMPTIONS FOR SOEOR2005

  11. PRIMARY ENERGY DEMAND IN EU-15 AND EU10 FOR LREM-E, CAFE-KR AND SEP

  12. LONG-TERM OBJECTIVE FOR CLIMATE CHANGE Objective adopted by EU • The EU long-term climate objective of 2oC is roughly consistent with stabilisation of CO2equivalent concentrations at 550 ppm for low to medium estimates of the climate sensitivity

  13. IMPLICATIONS OF DIFFERENT GLOBAL BURDEN SHARING OBJECTIVES FOR EUROPEAN EMISSIONS ALLOWANCES For SoEOR2005, without prejudging negotiations outcomes, assume: -20% by 2020 and, -40 % by 2030 as a sustainability benchmark when evaluating scenarios

  14. AIR QUALITY TARGETS

  15. EU SD AND ADOPTED (2010)ASSUMED (2020-30) ENERGY TARGETS • EU Sustainable Development Strategy: 1%/yr GHG emission reductions from 2012-2020 ; extended for SoEOR to 2030 EU25(domestic): 2010 -5.3% 2020 -13% 2030 -23% • EU Directive on renewables: electricity generation: 22.1% in 2010 (not met) extended for SoEOR to 27% (35) by 2020 and 35% (40) by 2030 ; • EU Directive on biofuels in transport: 2% by 2005, 5.75% by 2010; extended for SoEOR2005 to 7.5% by 2020 and 10% by 2030 • EU Directive on renewables: share of total energy use: 12% by 2010 (not met), at least 20% (15%, SEP 10%) by 2020; extended for SoEOR2005 to 20% (30, SEP 13%) by 2030

  16. GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS LREM CO2eq LREM SEP-Domestic CO2eq SEP-Domestic CO2 CO2 SEP SEP As energy intensity improvements become more difficult and non-CO2 abatement options get exhausted, shift to fuel mix changes In SEP GHGs domestic reduction 20-27 % (2030), supplemented with flexible mechanism to meet proposed targets SEP

  17. GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS • In LREM-E, Kyoto targets are not met. • In CAFE-KR (carbon prices €12/tCO2eq in 2010, €20 in 2020/2030), Kyoto targets are assumed to be met by domestic measures plus significant usage of Kyoto mechanisms; emissions increase after 2010 • In SEP (carbon prices €12/tCO2eq in 2010, €30 in 2020 and €65 in 2030) emission allowances are in line with EU longer-term climate target, but use of the Kyoto mechanisms is still needed • IN SEP, EU’s SD target (1% GHG reduction in 2010-2020) and renewable energy targets are not met -> technology variants (to be developed)

  18. AIR POLLUTANT EMISSIONS • 2010 targets for NEC pollutants are assumed to be reached regardless of costs in CAFE • Beyond 2010 emissions remain roughly stable in the scenarios

  19. Costs PRIMES uses behavioural costs (discount rates): 8% Large Utilities 12% Large industrial & commercial entities 17.5% Households spending Recalculation to social costs (as in RAINS), 4% discount rate, assuming decisions have been taken) (Billion Euro) 2010 2020 2030 Behavioural costs 26 30 21 Social costs 25 39 32 Declining energy costs results in less capital investments, counted more heavily in behavioural costs

  20. GLOBAL CLIMATE IMPLICATIONS OF SCENARIOS • In LREM-E, the EU climate goal is exceeded around 2050 • In SEP, the global mean temperature increase remains below the EU objective in this century • In SEP, also the rate of change is lowered to facilitate adaptation of social and ecological systems

  21. EXAMPLE OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS AT EUROPEAN LEVEL Climate Change induced Species disappearance 1995-2100 Database 1400 species, 270-1100 per country LREM-E SEP

  22. UNCERTAINTY TREATMENT IN SOEOR2005 • Measuring and monitoring: are statistics/measurement data precise? • Noted, not addressed in report • Representativess indicators: Are impacts avoided if climate/air quality goals are met? Is GDP an adequate measure for welfare? • Noted, not addressed in report • Model dynamics: do models adequately represent real world? • Differences models (PRIMES, POLES, TIMER) discussed in report • Assumptions about the future: how uncertain is the future? • No probabilities analysed • Results compared with other studies • Low economic growth variant; low/high carbon price sensitivities • Technology variants

  23. SCENARIOS FOR SOEOR2005: PRELIMINARY CONCLUSIONS 1

  24. SCENARIOS FOR SOEOR2005: PRELIMINARY CONCLUSIONS 2

  25. SoEOR2005 variants 2003: • Low economic growth • Renewables Considered for 2004: • Hydrogen economy/C-capture-storage • CAP reform • Nuclear • Phase-out • increased • External/internal burden sharing regimes

  26. LREM-E LOW ECONOMIC GROWTH VARIANT • LREM-E assumes moderately optimistic GDP growth -> a similarly pessimistic variant has been explored • In the low economic growth variant, the effect of lower activity levels outweighs the effect of slower technological development • Hence, GHG emissions are significant lower than in the base case, making it easier to meet NEC and Kyoto targets • The emissions in the energy-intensive industry, the power and transport sectors are particularly sensitive to economic growth assumptions??

  27. SEP: NEC assumptions • Variant 1: • Continue with NEC 2010 • Variant 2: • NEC 2010, followed by: • Proposed EU- wide target for 2020 (cost-effective) • MFR scenario for 2030

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