1 / 43

Climate Research in Malta An Overview of Activities

Climate Research in Malta An Overview of Activities. Dr. Noel Aquilina , Mr. James Ciarlo` , Mr. Norbert Bonnici. Department of Physics Erin Serracino Inglott Hall, 4 th November 2010. Overview. Timeline The Models Capacity Building Model s’ Performance Recent Work

steve
Download Presentation

Climate Research in Malta An Overview of Activities

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Climate Research in MaltaAn Overview of Activities Dr. Noel Aquilina, Mr. James Ciarlo`, Mr. Norbert Bonnici Department of Physics Erin Serracino Inglott Hall, 4th November 2010

  2. Overview • Timeline • The Models • Capacity Building • Models’ Performance • Recent Work • MedCLIVAR Workshop • Current Projects • 1stClimate Summer School • MCT plans

  3. Timeline MedCLIVARWorkshop 1 PRECIS 1.8.2 update RegCM4 Workshop 2 undergraduate; 1 MSc student PRECIS 1.7.1 installation & testing PRECIS Sulfate Research WRF installation 2007 2009 2010 2008 MedCLIVAR Workshop 2 RegCM4 testing PRECIS Workshop MCT PRECIS 1.7.1 operational; 3 undergraduate students PRECIS 1.9.1 update 1st Climate Summer School PRECIS license

  4. Introduction to the Models

  5. PRECIS Providing REgionalClimates for Impacts Studies • PRECIS has been developed and disseminated with funding from the: • UK Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA), • UK Department for International Development (DFID), • UK Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO) • United Nations Development Programme(UNDP), and • the Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) • PRECIS is based on the Hadley Centre's regional climate modelling system. • To help generate high-resolution climate change information for many regions. • The intention is to make PRECIS freely available to groups of developing countries. • These scenarios can be used in impact, vulnerability and adaptation studies.

  6. PRECIS

  7. PRECIS

  8. RegCM4 • RegCM4 • Community-based • BATS & CLM LSMs • Different Schemes • Planetary Boundary Layer • Radiation • Precipitation • Chemistry model (Dust, Sulfate, Organic Carbon, Black Carbon) • Clouds • Ocean Flux • Pressure Gradient Force • Lake model • PRECIS • License-based • MOSES 1 & 2.2 LSMs • Different Schemes • Planetary Boundary Layer • Radiation • Precipitation • Chemistry model (Sulfate)

  9. RegCM4 • Malta in Climate Models

  10. WRF Numerical Weather Prediction Model called Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) • Is a next-generation mesoscalemodel designed to serve both operational forecasting and atmospheric research needs. • It features multiple dynamical cores, a 3-Dvariational (3DVAR) data assimilation system. • A software architecture allowing for computational parallelism and system extensibility. • WRF is suitable for a broad spectrum of applications across scales going down to 1 km. • Has an easy to use GUI and excellent for training in meteorology.

  11. WRF

  12. WRF [Source: National Observatory of Athens]

  13. WRF • Collaborative research • University of Aveiro & University of Lisbon • BSc(Hons) 3rd year projects • Examples: • Dynamics of Hurricane Katrina 2005 • Temperature extremes in the Mediterranean • Attraction between Cities and Cyclones

  14. Capacity Building • Workstations • ALBERT • 2 Proc. • 768 Proc. • PRECIS on 2 nodes (Limited to 12 Proc. per simulation) • RegCM4 (runs on MPI) • WRF installed & in testing • 4 Proc.

  15. Models’ Performance Considering a 30 year simulation, Europe, 50 km: 100x100cells • PRECIS • Computer 4 (2P): ~39days • Computer 2 (4P): ~16 days • Computer Cluster (12P): ~11 days • RegCM4 • Computer Cluster: ~8 days • WRF: in testing phase

  16. Recent Work PRECIS • Undergraduate Projects 2009/10 • Validation of the model in the Mediterranean (and surrounding) region from different perspectives. • Vertical Levels (Nadine Napoli) • Climate Zones (Denise M. Cilia) • Sulfate Aerosols (James Ciarlo`) • Current Research • Evaluation of the Chemistry model(Noel Aquilina, James Ciarlo`) • Undergraduate Projects 2010/11 • Study of the ENSO around Australia (Candy Spiteri) • Comparative study of PRECIS’s LSMs(William Healey)

  17. Undergraduate Projects 2009/10 Scope: Working on the same lines as MedCLIVAR (the Mediterranean CLImateVARiability project) that coordinates and promotes the study of the Mediterranean climate Why the Mediterranean Basin? • Enclosed by 3 major continents. • Surrounded almost entirely by mountains. • Very unique and sensitive to climate changes. Simulation details • GCM-HadAM3P • PRECIS (v 1.7.1) used • 1960-1990 • Resolution: 0.44° x 0.44° (50 km) • 100 x 100 cells • 57°N-18°N • 16°W-46°E

  18. PRECIS: Validation Validation of the PRECIS Regional Climate Model Comparison of Measured and Modelleddata Solar Radiation at Surface Level 1960-1990 Average PRECIS ESRL

  19. PRECIS: Validation Validation of the PRECIS Regional Climate Model Comparison of Measured and Modelleddata

  20. PRECIS: Vertical Layers Parameter variation at 5 vertical levels in the atmosphere against Radiosondedata Source: (NapoliN. Dissertation 2010)

  21. PRECIS: Climate Zones Evaluation of temperature and precipitation within different climate zones PRECIS 1960-1990 Average Temperature Total Precipitation Rate MONITORING STATIONS Source: (Cilia D.M. Dissertation 2010)

  22. Future Projections Temperature IS INCREASING Source: (Cilia D.M. Dissertation 2010)

  23. Future Projections Total Precipitation Rate IS DECREASING Is this natural variability or climate change? – MORE RESEARCH Source: (Cilia D.M. Dissertation 2010)

  24. PRECIS: SulfateAerosol Analysis of the climate impacts caused by Sulfate Aerosols in the Atmosphere 1960-1990 Average Source: (Ciarlo`J. Dissertation 2010)

  25. PRECIS: SulfateAerosol Analysis of the climate impacts caused by Sulfate Aerosol in the Atmosphere 1960-1990 Average Source: (Ciarlo`J. Dissertation 2010)

  26. ESF-MedCLIVAR Workshop 23rd-25thSeptember 2010 ICTP, Trieste Workshop on: Scenarios of Mediterranean Climate Change under Increased Radiative Active Gas Concentration and the Role of Aerosols.

  27. PRECIS: Current Research Aquilina N.J., Ciarlo` J.M. (2010). “Validation of PRECIS: Effect of sulfate aerosols in the atmosphere”. In preparation for submission in Climatic Change.

  28. Undergraduate Projects 2010/11 Why Australia? • Large variety of different climates • Complex island system in the ITCZ Simulation details: • GCM-HadAM3Q0/ECHAM5 • PRECIS (v 1.9.1) used • 1960-1990/1990-2020 • Resolution: 0.44° x 0.44° (50 km) • 174 x 150 cells • 22°N-49°S • 83°E-166°E Scope:Established & strengthening ties with CSIRO (Australian Commonwealth Scientific and Research Organization) and comparing results with their model, CCAM (Conformal-Cubic Atmospheric Model)

  29. LSMProject PRECIS 1.9.1 MOSES 2.2 PRECIS 1.7.1 MOSES I 1960-1990 Sulfate Aitken mode

  30. ENSO Project

  31. MSc using RegCM4 Study of interaction between Oscillation Patterns around Europe and their influence on aerosol transportation. Example: North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) NAO- NAO+

  32. Example: North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)

  33. Example: North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)

  34. 1stClimate Summer School • 8 Students attended • Day 1: Introduction to Meteorology I • Day 2: Introduction to Meteorology II • Day 3: Data Mining; Post Processing Software installation • Day 4: Using Panoply data viewer; Introduction to PRECIS • Day 5: The PRECIS outputs • Day 6: Introduction to NCL • 2nd Climate Summer School • New Models (RegCM4, WRF) • Handle PP Software (NCL, IDV) • Mini-Project

  35. ImmediatePlans • Gain more experience • Climate Research, Different Models, Climate Statistics • Encourage more people to work in the MCT • Physicists, Chemists, Mathematicians, Programmers, and Statisticians. • There is a lot of data available to be analysed – summer research experiences are available • Prepare interested students through new study-units.

  36. New Study-Units Fundamentals of Meteorology Study Aims • Scientific understanding of meteorology • Physics of weather systems • Distinguishing and identifying weather systems from climate data • Applying meteorology to climate research A Multidisciplinary approach to Climate Research Study Aims • Scientific understanding of climate • Operating climate models • Post-processing • Using appropriate Statistical methods • Hands-on experience to climate research Hopefully to be offered from academic year 2011/12

  37. Long-Term Plans • Collaborativeand MSc / PhD / post-doc research • Development of part of the chemical model with ICTP • Needed: • Physicists, Chemists, Mathematicians, Statisticians, Programmers • Associated projects • Studying long range transport of pollutants • Evaluate different schemes • Apply different statistical treatments to climate data • Testing out new code

  38. International Collaborations • Sponsored by: • International Council for Science (ICSU) • World Meteorological Organization (WMO) • Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) of UNESCO • The two overarching objectives of the WCRP are to determine: • the predictability of climate • the effect of human activities on climate • These underpin & directly address the needs of the UNFCCC. • A multi-disciplinary approach: • Organizes large-scale observational and modelling projects • Facilitates focus on aspects of climate too large and complex to be addressed by any one nation or single scientific discipline • The 2005-2015 WCRP strategy will promote the creation of comprehensive and reliable global climate observations and models

  39. CORDEX COordinatedRegionalclimateDownscaling EXperiment • CORDEX is intended to organize an international coordinated framework. • To produce an improved generation of regional climate change projections world-wide • To use results for input into impact and adaptation studies within the AR5 timeline and beyond • MED-CORDEXwill make use of both regional atmospheric climate models and regional coupled systems. • Developing new experiments to test new components and improved schemes,based on the HyMeX (Hydrological cycle in the Mediterranean Experiment) field campaign outcomes (long term simulations) • CORDEX WRF-Community:This would give an opportunity to produce multi-physics experiments, as opposite (an in addition) to the multi-model experiments.

  40. CORDEX

  41. The MCT on the Web UoM-Physics Webpage: http://www.um.edu.mt/science/physics/climate_studies Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/group.php?gid=155998907759229

  42. Acknowledgements Mary Hailey Dennis Shea http://ncar.ucar.edu/ Nick Archer Charles V Sammut Louis ZammitMangion Pierre-SandreFarrugia Denis Cutajar Adam Gauci AlessioMagro Shawn Cassar http://um.edu.mt/science/physics Simon Tucker Chloe Morrell David Hein David Hassell http://precis.metoffice.com/ Marcus Thatcher Jack Katzfey John McGregor http://cmar.csiro.au Graziano Giuliani Stefano Cozzini http://portal.ictp.it/esp/research/esp-models/regcm3

  43. Thank You MALTA CLIMATE TEAM W:http://www.um.edu.mt/science/physics/research/climate_studies E: climate-physics.sci@um.edu.mt T: +356 2340 3036

More Related